1. Demand in the next century

2. First what issues have we addressed? Typical issue differ depending on the type of data: time series versus cross section.

3. TS issues: – period of observation, – functional form, – dynamics, – endogeneity, – separability, – testing/imposing restrictions, – demographic and other effects, and – changes in tastes & preferences.

4. CS issues: – demographic effects, – adult equivalence scales, – endogeneity, – zero consumption and the reasons for them, – household production, – unit values and – quality.

5. I have a bibliography of 114 meat demand or related studies from 1970 through 2010. These studies used a number of approaches to address a number of issues

6. Meat Demand Studies 1970-2010 Data Employed Time-SeriesCross-Section 825 Functional Forms Old SchoolAIDSRotterdamOtherNone 26392692 Market Studied DecadeN AmericanEuropeanAsian 70s50 80s290 90s2603 00s24154

7. Summary of findings: Price & Expenditure Elasticities Price & Scale Flexibilities

8. Price Sensitivities own-price elasticitiesown-price flexibilities beefporkchickenbeefporkchicken avg-0.86-0.77-0.62-1.05-1.09-1.26 median-0.81-0.76-0.52-0.90-0.93-0.97 n74707112 11 std err0.440.340.450.370.360.72 90% CI upper-0.13-0.210.12-0.44-0.49-0.08 90% CI lower-1.60-1.33-1.35-1.66-1.68-2.44 min-2.45-1.83-2.94-1.90-1.64-2.35 max-0.11-0.02-0.09-0.74-0.73-0.54

9. Expenditure/Scale Sensitivities expenditure elasticitiesscale flexibilities beefporkchickenbeefporkchicken avg0.950.700.57-0.90-1.03-1.67 median0.980.760.57-0.85-1.04-1.63 n7973 777 std err0.550.440.450.170.060.17 90% CI upper1.851.421.31-0.62-0.93-1.38 90% CI lower0.06-0.01-0.16-1.18-1.14-1.95 min-0.20-0.06-0.79-1.28-1.13-1.92 max2.441.891.85-0.79-0.91-1.41

10. The Future? Developed world issues: – Obesity and demand – Food safety – FAH v FAFH – Organic

11. World issues – World population growth by 2100 UN projections (billions, 2004) low 5.5 medium 9.1 zero 9.1 high 14.0 – Income growth per capita GDP 2008 - $9000 growth rate 5% per year over previous 40 years (http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/introduction.asp)http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/introduction.asp

12. – Climate limits on both population & income growth – Energy same as climate… – Health potential antibiotic-resistant infections epidemics

13. – Religion Implications for meat demand – Household demographics Increased demand for convenience