1. International trends in forest products demand: Is there convergence? Joseph Buongiorno University of Wisconsin-Madison Acknowledgments: Hiroko Kando USFS-Southern Station

2. Background Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) calibration Previous studies (income, productivity, consumption) “Slow convergence” (Bourguignon & Morrison 2002, Ball et al. 2004) “Convergence, period” (Sala-i-Martin 2006) “Convergence, fails” (Romer 1994) “Divergence, big time” (Prichett 1997) Objective Wood products consumption convergence?

3. Material and methods c= consumption per capita i=country t=year Sigma convergence 1: Coef. of variation

4. Sigma convergence 2: S= share i=country t=year

5. Beta convergence 1: r c =growth rate consumption / capita c= level consumption / capita H0: β <0

6. Beta convergence 2: r c =growth rate of consumption per capita c= level of consumption per capita r y =growth rate of income per capita H0: β 0.

7. Population weighted least squares

8. Sawnwood Veneer & plywood Particle board Fiber board News print Printing & writing paper Other paper& paperboard Algeriaxxxxx Argentinaxxxx Austriaxxxxxxx Brazilxxxxxx … Finlandxxxxxxx Francexxxxxxx … Norwayxxxxxxx … United Statesxxxxxxx Uruguayxxxx Venezuelax xxx Total66541827575369 PANEL DATA 1961-2005

9. Sigma convergence: Solid wood products

10. Sigma convergence: Paper and paperboard

11. Coef. R2R2 R2R2 Sawnwoodlnc0.023**0.290.025**0.28 gygy 0.26 Veneer & plywoodlnc-0.052**0.76-0.052**0.78 gygy 0.959** Particleboardlnc-0.0100.41-0.016*0.62 gygy 3.126** Fiberboardlnc-0.013**0.83-0.012**0.91 gygy 1.64** Newsprintlnc-0.022**0.66-0.013**0.86 gygy 1.146** Printing & writing paperlnc-0.014**0.53-0.014**0.52 gygy 0.108 Other paper & paperboardlnc-0.005*0.52-0.006**0.55 gygy 0.347** Beta convergence

12. Beta convergence: solid wood

13. Beta convergence: Paper & paperboard

14. 1961-1995 1995-2005 ProductCV y CV c CV y CV c Predicted CV c Sawnwood0.41-0.2-0.221.922.14 Plywood0.37-0.69-0.27-2.3-6.88 Particleboard0.20-1.79-0.291.310.06 Fiberboard0.40-0.56-0.32-5.09-3.05 Newsprint0.380.07-0.27-1.57-1.53 Printing & writing paper0.44-0.04-0.22-1.4-0.99 Other paper & paperboard0.40-0.71 -0.21-1.67-0.68 Convergence Consumption vs. Income (% yr -1 )

15. Summary Convergence 1961-2005 Acceleration 1995- 2005 Saturation Independent of income Further work Sawnwood? Integration in forecasting models Causes: trade, globalization?