1. BUILDING STRONG ® Network-Scale Environmental Analytics WU  Task Title: Network-Scale Environmental Analytics  Lead: Matthew Farthing (25 %; 480 hrs)  Task Description: Network-wide predictions of traffic-ability and route conditions due to environmental conditions (e.g., weather, hydrological forcing) in regions with limited traditional data (e.g., stream gauges) but growing access to remotely sensed products.  Deliverable(s): Environmental Tool (major supply route conditions, weightings due to Environment)  Personnel Team Member(s):  Mike Follum (40%; 768 hrs) FY 13, LTT FY 14, FY 15 Resume  Mark Jourdan (10%; 200 hrs), McKinley (25%), Nawa Pradhan (25%; 960 hrs), Kevin Winters (50%) FY 14  FY 17, Jeff Ellis (Bowhead, 15%) FY 14  Start Date: Jan. 2013  Completion Date: Sept. 2017  Resource Requirements: 300K (FY 13), 300K (FY 14—FY 17)  Status: On time with deliverables for FY13 1

2. BUILDING STRONG ® Local-Scale Environmental Analytics WU  Task Title: Local-Scale Environmental Analytics  Lead: Matthew Farthing (25 %; 480 hrs)  Task Description: Localized predictions of traffic-ability and route conditions in data poor environments. Provide fidelity in physical and numerics to resolve processes at the meter scale. Focus is on local conditions FOB forward.  Deliverable(s): Environmental Tool (local surface physics, Threat, Socio-cultural analysis)  Personnel Team Member(s):  Stacy Howington (30 %; 576 hrs), Hensley/Trahan (30%; 576 hrs)  Nawa Pradhan (35 %; 480 hrs), McKinley (25%; 480 hrs)  Start Date: FY 14  Completion Date: FY 17  Resource Requirements: 300K (FY14—FY17)  Status: Work unit starts in FY14. 2

3. BUILDING STRONG ® Theater to Unit Scale Environmental Impacts Model Domain: 7632 mi 2 River Length (main stem): 245 mi Mesh (2D 0.3 M, 3D 7 M) CREST based model FOB forward to patrol base may need meter scale resolution and more physics Theater Scale Resolution ≈ 1-25 km

4. BUILDING STRONG ® Challenges  Sparse availability of traditional data (soil, gauge) in locations we care about  Need to exploit remotely sensed data to fill in these gaps ► Transition Scales ► Infer modeled quantities (soil moisture) from measured properties (surface heat fluxes)  Provide useful predictions at needed resolution in timely manner 4

5. BUILDING STRONG ® Transitioning scales: Downscaling parameters From Hendrickx, Pradhan, et al. SEBAL derived IC (a), GSSHA with constant ICs (b-e), GSSHA with SEBAL IC (f)

6. BUILDING STRONG ® Local Scale Remote Sensing  Airborne or vehicle-mounted  Electro-optical, infrared, and radar are most common  Flightlines are 10s of meters by 1000s of meters – generates a lot of imagery  Can we leverage pre-existing platforms and sensors to get relevant quantities (e.g., soil moisture)

7. BUILDING STRONG ® Example Products  Spatially distributed maps and red-amber green charts for route conditions ► Weather-driven hydrology ► Threat and Socio-cultural conditions (FY 16—FY 17)  Route-integrated weighting for Network Model traffic-ability based on current and predicted environmental conditions  Planning tool for route and CRSP/FOB yard placement for phase 0 planning 7

8. BUILDING STRONG ® Environmental Tool Map Products 8 Example of Route Specific Guidance Route Flood Vulnerability

9. BUILDING STRONG ® Distribution Analytics Task List

10. BUILDING STRONG ® Distribution Analytics Task List

11. BUILDING STRONG ® Task/Milestone Schedules 11 FY 13-14

12. BUILDING STRONG ® Task/Milestone Schedules 12 FY 15-17

13. BUILDING STRONG ® Questions?