1. Department of Economics Soybean Outlook for 2010 & Beyond Mar. 9, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

2. Department of Economics U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA 2007200820092010 Area Planted(mil. acres)64.775.777.577.0 Yield(bu./acre)41.739.744.042.9 Production(mil. bu.)2,6772,9673,3613,260 Beg. Stocks(mil. bu.)574205138210 Imports(mil. bu.)101388 Total Supply(mil. bu.)3,2613,1853,5073,478 Crush(mil. bu.)1,8031,6621,7201,655 Seed & Residual(mil. bu.)93101177168 Exports(mil. bu.)1,1591,2831,4001,325 Total Use(mil. bu.)3,0563,0473,2973,147 Ending Stocks(mil. bu.)205138210330 Season-Average Price($/bu.)10.109.979.458.80

3. Department of Economics Storage Issues Source: Hurburgh and Elmore, ICM News, 10/15/09

4. Department of Economics World Soybean Production Source: USDA

5. Department of Economics Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

6. Department of Economics Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

7. Department of Economics Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

8. Department of Economics 2009 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

9. Department of Economics Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) YearBiodiesel (million gallons) 2009500 2010650 2011800

10. Department of Economics Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

11. Department of Economics Projected 2009 Season-Average Soy Price

12. Department of Economics Soybean Futures Source: CBOT, 3/8/10

13. Department of Economics Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn Source: CBOT

14. Department of Economics Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, Feb. 26, 2010

15. Department of Economics Thoughts for 2009/10 and Beyond  General economic conditions  Projected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices  Weakness in the dollar helps exports, but dollar may fight back  Nearby crude oil prices floating in near $80  Supply/demand concerns  Livestock numbers continue to decline  South America: Record soybean crop  2009/10:USDA:Corn $3.70, Soy $9.45 Futures:Corn $3.54, Soy $9.37  2010/11:USDA:Corn $3.60, Soy $8.80 Futures:Corn $3.87, Soy $8.98

16. Department of Economics Thank you for your time! Any questions? My web site: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/ Iowa Farm Outlook: http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/ Ag Decision Maker: http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/