1. IFS When you are born matters: the impact of date of birth on child cognitive outcomes in England Claire Crawford, Lorraine Dearden & Costas Meghir Institute for Fiscal Studies

2. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 The English education system By law, children must have started school by the beginning of the term after they turn five Local Education Authorities (LEAs) are free to set admissions policies within this framework The academic year runs from 1 st September to 31 st August –We would expect August-born children to perform worse than September-born children

3. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Raw differences (example)

4. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Data Administrative data on all children attending state school in England –Test results from age 5 to age 18 Not possible to follow the same individuals all the way through, so consider three groups: –Group 1 (test results at ages 5 and 7) –Group 2 (test results at ages 7, 11 and 14) –Group 3 (test results at ages 11, 14, 16 and 18)

5. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Modelling strategy In general, we compare children born in August with children born in September –In the same school (and school year) –With the same observable characteristics

6. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Research questions 1.What is the extent of the August birth penalty, and how does this vary by age? 2.What is the best admissions policy for summer-born children (in terms of cognitive outcomes)? 3.What drives differences in cognitive outcomes between August- and September-born children? 4.Does the August birth penalty vary across particular subgroups of interest?

7. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 What is the extent of the August birth penalty, and how does it vary by age?

8. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Comparison of percentages of August- and September-born children reaching expected level Group 1Group 2Group 3 GirlsBoysGirlsBoysGirlsBoys Key Stage 1Sep80.170.570.361.2 Aug53.047.144.634.9 Key Stage 2Sep76.071.965.460.9 Aug62.759.150.045.9 Key Stage 3Sep72.968.865.961.6 Aug65.260.357.151.9 Key Stage 4Sep60.750.3 Aug55.244.2 Key Stage 5Sep42.533.2 Aug40.531.5

9. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Percentage point difference between August- and September-born children reaching expected level Group 1Group 2Group 3 GirlsBoysGirlsBoysGirlsBoys Key Stage 1 -27.1-23.4-25.7-26.3 Key Stage 2 -13.3-12.8-15.4-15.0 Key Stage 3 -7.7-8.5-8.8-9.7 Key Stage 4 -5.5-6.1 Key Stage 5 -2.0-1.7

10. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Comparison of percentages of August- and September-born children diagnosed with special educational needs Group 1 (age 5) Group 2 (age 11) Group 3 (age 16) GirlsBoysGirlsBoysGirlsBoys StatementedSep0.61.6 4.21.74.0 Aug0.51.32.04.82.14.8 Non-statementedSep3.37.511.320.58.514.1 Aug5.39.419.429.910.517.6

11. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Percentage point difference between August- and September-born children diagnosed with special educational needs Group 1 (age 5) Group 2 (age 11) Group 3 (age 16) GirlsBoysGirlsBoysGirlsBoys Statemented -0.1-0.30.40.60.40.8 Non-statemented 2.01.98.19.42.03.5

12. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Does the August birth penalty vary by subgroup? We made comparisons across several groups, e.g. –FSM vs. non-FSM –Black Caribbean vs. White British Most noteworthy finding is the lack of significant differences across subgroup –August birth penalty is the same for all individuals

13. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Hypotheses Why might August-born children perform more poorly than September-born children? –Age of sitting the test (absolute age) effect –Age of starting school effect –Length of schooling effect –Age position (relative age) effect

14. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 How can we find out what drives the August birth penalty? Variation in admissions policies is important Children born on the same day (who start school in different areas) may: –Start school at different ages –Receive a different number of terms of schooling Also separates age of starting school from date of birth (the absolute age effect)

15. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Modelling strategy Modelling strategy now involves comparing children born on the same day across admissions policy areas –Controlling for observables is very important

16. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 What drives the August birth penalty? Outcomes of August-born children are: –Considerably worsened because they are younger when they sit the test –Slightly worsened because they are amongst the youngest in their year –Slightly improved in areas where they start school earlier (have more terms of schooling) Greater for girls than for boys Does not persist beyond Key Stage 3 (age 14)

17. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 What is the best admissions policy for summer-born children? It is best for August-born children to start school at the same time as September-born children But effects are small and do not persist –Changes to admissions policies will not come close to eliminating the August birth penalty

18. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Possible Policy Responses...

19. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 The Policy Dilemma Results we have shown emphasise August birth penalty, but results much more general than this –on average, the younger you are in the school year, the worse you do Policy options ideally need to create a level playing field for all children, regardless of their date of birth But also need to have school years, and somebody is always going to be the youngest, regardless of the policy

20. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 What are the policy options? Flexibility in age of starting school Holding children back Age adjustment of tests/testing when ready Other options and considerations

21. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Flexibility in school starting age English system unique in that most children stay in allocated school year – is this inflexibility part of the problem? Not obvious to us that it is – some US evidence that flexibility creates more severe summer born penalties Need to ensure that flexibility is used appropriately –What criteria do you use? –Make sure decisions not determined by economic circumstances –Or school choice issues

22. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Holding children back? Conservatives have mooted holding children back in Year 6 if haven’t reached expected levels But clear from data that with the current system much more likely that August born children would be held back unnecessarily compared to September born children (if KS2 results used) –See Tables 9.2 and 9.3 of report

23. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Age adjustment and/or testing when ready Could just adjust test scores to take account of age –Use principle that proportion getting expected level should not vary by month of birth –Simple linear adjustment (show this works in report) –For externally marked exams such adjustment should be relatively straight forward –For internally marked exams probably needs to be based on previous cohorts

24. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Another way? Rather than setting expected level for a whole school year set it for a particular age –E.g. Expect person to reach level 2B at age 7 ½, level 3 by 9 ½, level 4 by 11 ½, level 5 by 13 ½... –Creates level playing field This is implicit age normalisation –But for this to work, need to have more flexibility in when children are tested e.g. testing when ready –Works best if testing can happen when truly ready (i.e. the more testing slots during the year the better)

25. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 But some problems? How do you measure school performance? Clear to us should be based on age adjusted scores/expected levels –We can show that age adjusting scores dramatically changes school rankings within LEAS for Key Stage 2 (70% of schools change rankings) and Key Stage 3 results (20% of schools change rankings) –Some of these movements are very large

26. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Transitions at 16 Clear to us that it is an urgent policy priority to ensure transitions at age 16 are based on age adjusted attainment –Schools/FE colleges often have grade criteria for continuing certain subjects/courses of study –This must be based on age adjusted criteria or summer born students in particular will be disadvantaged If children leave school, then they take away their actual qualification (need actual level of human capital for labour market)

27. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Other options? Teachers and parents need to be made more aware of the impact of date of birth penalties LEAs should consider allowing all children to start school in September Reconsideration of rules for free nursery provision –Make free provision available in the year in which child turns 3 rather than in term after they turn 3 –Current system means summer born children generally entitled to less free provision

28. © Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2007 Panel Discussion