1. What’s next? New resources & needs for causal analysis

2. 2 CADDIS 2007 (and 2008) Step-by-Step Guide to SI Listing advice for 8 stressors Analytical tools & advice – CADStat – R-scripts Interactive Conceptual Model CADLit Case studies / examples

3. 3 CADDIS 2010: more technical content New & improved statistical tools & guidance Listing advice for additional stressors – habitat, ammonia, pH, insecticides Prototype source-based modules – urbanization, drilling New Interactive Conceptual Diagrams New case studies

4. 4 Working to simplify the process… CAUSAL CHARACTERISTIC DESCRIPTION Co-occurrence The effect occurs where and when its cause occurs, and does not occur in the absence of its cause TemporalityThe cause precedes its effect Sufficiency Intensity and frequency of contact with cause is adequate to produce observed effect ManipulationChanging the cause changes its effect Coherence Specific causal relationships are consistent with scientific theory

5. 5 Beyond 2010? Moving toward user-supported, collaborative platform Why? Because… – ORD can’t provide adequate information for all stressors, all sources, all responses, all analytical techniques, etc. – You know what works & what you need – Your knowledge can help others

6. 6 other compounds pesticides Collapsible toolbar Start with existing diagram: All diagrams Nitrogen Phosphorus Sediment Temperature Urbanization agriculture riparian land cover alteration ∆ channel morphology & physical habitat ∆ water quality ∆ population & community structure mechanisms & symptoms Inset window Permanent toolbar LegendReset diagramHelp SELECTED SHAPES Choose an organism: All organisms Invertebrates Fishes Plants Other organisms Display: Lines Natural drivers Mechanisms Stressor interactions urbanizationindustryrecreation water withdrawal watershed land cover alteration mining & resource extraction forestry & silviculture channel alteration & flow regulation fishing & harvesting fertilizers stormwater runoff sewage vehicle emissions road sand, salt & deicers watershed soils bank & channel sediments N 2 -fixing plants fire, ash & smoke other non- point sources landfillsanimal wastes industrial point sources POTWs & WWTPs mining wastes industrial emissions other point sources historical sources invasive species SELECTED LINKAGES SAVED REFERENCES ∆ sediment quality ∆ discharge patterns∆ basal food resources ∆ ecosystem processes

7. 7 other compounds pesticides Collapsible toolbar Start with existing diagram: All diagrams Nitrogen Phosphorus Sediment Temperature Urbanization agriculture riparian land cover alteration ∆ channel morphology & physical habitat ∆ water quality ∆ population & community structure mechanisms & symptoms Inset window Permanent toolbar LegendReset diagramHelp SELECTED SHAPES Choose an organism: All organisms Invertebrates Fishes Plants Other organisms Display: Lines Natural drivers Mechanisms Stressor interactions urbanizationindustryrecreationwater withdrawal watershed land cover alteration mining & resource extraction forestry & silviculture channel alteration & flow regulation fishing & harvesting fertilizers stormwater runoff sewage vehicle emissions road sand, salt & deicers watershed soils bank & channel sediments N 2 -fixing plants fire, ash & smoke other non- point sources landfillsanimal wastes industrial point sources POTWs & WWTPs mining wastes industrial emissions other point sources historical sources invasive species SELECTED LINKAGES SAVED REFERENCES ∆ sediment quality∆ discharge patterns∆ basal food resources ∆ ecosystem processes

8. 8 other compounds pesticides Collapsible toolbar Start with existing diagram: All diagrams Nitrogen Phosphorus Sediment Temperature Urbanization riparian land cover alteration ∆ channel morphology & physical habitat ∆ water quality ∆ population & community structure mechanisms & symptoms Inset window Permanent toolbar LegendReset diagramHelp SELECTED SHAPES Choose an organism: All organisms Invertebrates Fishes Plants Other organisms Display: Lines Natural drivers Mechanisms Stressor interactions urbanizationindustryrecreationwater withdrawal watershed land cover alteration mining & resource extraction forestry & silviculture channel alteration & flow regulation fishing & harvesting fertilizers stormwater runoff sewage vehicle emissions road sand, salt & deicers watershed soils bank & channel sediments N 2 -fixing plants fire, ash & smoke other non- point sources landfillsanimal wastes industrial point sources POTWs & WWTPs mining wastes industrial emissions other point sources historical sources invasive species SELECTED LINKAGES SAVED REFERENCES ∆ sediment quality∆ discharge patterns∆ basal food resources ∆ ecosystem processes agriculture cropslivestock

9. 9 other compounds pesticides Collapsible toolbar Start with existing diagram: All diagrams Nitrogen Phosphorus Sediment Temperature Urbanization agriculture riparian land cover alteration ∆ channel morphology & physical habitat ∆ water quality ∆ population & community structure mechanisms & symptoms Inset window Permanent toolbar LegendReset diagramHelp SELECTED SHAPES Choose an organism: All organisms Invertebrates Fishes Plants Other organisms Display: Lines Natural drivers Mechanisms Stressor interactions urbanizationindustryrecreation water withdrawal watershed land cover alteration mining & resource extraction forestry & silviculture channel alteration & flow regulation fishing & harvesting fertilizers stormwater runoff sewage vehicle emissions road sand, salt & deicers watershed soils bank & channel sediments N 2 -fixing plants fire, ash & smoke other non- point sources landfillsanimal wastes industrial point sources POTWs & WWTPs mining wastes industrial emissions other point sources historical sources invasive species SELECTED LINKAGES SAVED REFERENCES ∆ sediment quality ∆ discharge patterns∆ basal food resources ∆ ecosystem processes – agriculture Summary information References Related links – agriculture → pesticides + SR relationships [1] Smith 1998… Jones et al. 2007… Love & Chu 2000… SAVE SELECTED REFERENCES + pesticides – supporting literature [3] – agriculture → pesticides Smith 1998… Jones et al. 2007… Love & Chu 2000… DELETE REFERENCES DOWNLOAD REFERENCES

10. 10 What do we need? New case studies Feedback from you – What works & what doesn’t work – What’s missing – What you’re willing & able to contribute

11. 11 Future case studies?

12. 12 What do you need? Are we prioritizing the right stressors? – So far: metals, sediment, nutrients, temperature, dissolved oxygen, unspecified toxics, ionic strength, flow alteration – Next up: habitat, ammonia, pH, insecticides, sediment toxicity What aquatic systems are presenting the toughest TMDL challenges? How can we best help you analyze content? What do you need the most?

13. 13 Causal analysis is only one step in the process of water quality management… Define the Case List Candidate Causes Evaluate Data from the Case Evaluate Data from Elsewhere Identify Probable Cause Detect or Suspect Biological Impairment As Necessary: Acquire Data and Iterate Process Identify and Apportion Sources Management Action: Eliminate or Control Sources, Monitor Results Biological Condition Restored or Protected Decision-maker and Stakeholder Involvement Stressor Identification Feedback to bioassessment Identification of sources & appropriate management actions Monitoring of outcomes Criteria development (complementary effort) Prediction of effects Can these tools be used or modified for other purposes, beyond causal analysis?

14. 14 EPA’s Causal Analysis Team John Paul Lester Yuan Glenn Suter David Farrar Jeff Hollister Walter Berry Susan Norton Robert Cantilli Robert Spehar Kate Schofield Michael Kravitz Keith Sappington Christopher Nietch Jan Kurtz Rick Ziegler Treda Smith Evan Hornig Debra Taylor Amina Pollard Phil Kaufmann Susan Cormier Michael Griffith William Swietlik Laurie Alexander Matthew Morrison Patricia Shaw-Allen OW NCEA NHEERL NRMRL

15. 15 Let us know! Contact information Rick Zieglerziegler.rick@epa.gov Amina Pollardpollard.amina@epa.gov Laurie Alexanderalexander.laurie@epa.gov OR visit http://www.epa.gov/caddis and click on Contact Us