1. Projections of the Ethnic Minority Populations of Britain D.A. Coleman and M.D. Smith Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford http://www.apsoc.ox.ac.uk/oxpop European Population Conference 2003 Session F4 29 August 2003

2. Demographic effects of international migration on the UK Project funded by Nuffield Foundation. Aims: 1. Reconcile past immigration flow data with estimates of stock from various sources. 2. Determine migration effect on size and age-structure of UK population and workforce. 3. Project the populations of UK ethnic minority and immigrant origin into the future, revise national projections Major effort so far on fertility estimates and migration. Thanks for help to ONS LS and Celsius, and ONS, for data

3. Some problems in making projections of UK ethnic minority populations Base population from (1971), 1991 and 2001 censuses, surveys. But categories changed. No vital registration (births and deaths) by ethnic origin or race. Migration data weak, not available by ethnic origin. Confusion from 2001 census – migration data revised twice in 8 months. Growing importance of ‘mixed’ populations.

4. Major sources of data on ethnic minority demographic rates Registration of births and deaths (by birthplace of mother/deceased only 1969) General Household Survey ethnic origin, but small sample, fertility histories from 1984 and own-child 1970) Labour Force Survey ethnic origin, large sample, no fertility (own-child method only, from 1965). ONS Longitudinal Study links births to mothers with census (calculated by CeLSIUS 1971-1999)

5. Total Period Fertility Rate, 1981-1997: Country of Birth of Mother

6. Completed Family Size by year of Birth and Ethnic Origin: GHS women born 1929 - 1984)

7. TFR, 1965-2000: Comparing UK LFS own-child estimates (whites) with Registration data

8. Total Fertility Rates by Ethnic Group, UK, 1965-2001, from LFS (own-child)

9. TFR, Indian Women, 1965-2001

10. TFR, Black-African Women, 1965-2001

11. Contribution of Mixed Births to Total Births by Ethnic Group of mother, UK, 1992-2001

12. TFR (all women), 1971-1999: data sources compared

18. Mortality Mortality statistics: for minority groups ASMRs difficult to compute in many age-groups: small numbers, under-19s deficient. Overall SMRs too low. Analysis by others suggests adult mortality of immigrants not far from UK average (some are superior); IMR mostly higher. For initial projections England and Wales life tables used, projected to 2051 according to GAD 2003 provisional figures.

19. Estimating net ethnic migration Migration data by residence / birthplace turned into ethnic flows with IPS, LFS data. Over 45% of recent overall net inflow belonged to ethnic minority populations. Projecting future level difficult: GAD assume constant net level to 2051 but at lower level (100k) than actual ONS figure (172k net in 2001). Current trends and policy indicate continued increase; projections here assume recent average level, or zero, only. Complicated by two recent post-census revisions.

23. Foreign-born Black-African inflow, 1986- 2002 by sex and age upon arrival

26. Some preliminary UK projections Diversity in initial population structure and size Diversity in fertility rates and trend Diversity in migration levels Mortality assumed to be England and Wales average ‘Mixed’ populations not considered yet – limits choice of groups.

35. Conclusions Projections of population by ethnic origin in UK are possible but with reservations. Only partial, preliminary projections so far. Most sensitive and unpredictable variable is migration, not fertility Substantial re-alignment of relative size of groups almost inevitable ‘Mixed’ groups gaining rapidly in importance – choice of identity crucial