1. 1 Summary of Vulnerability Assessment & Farming System Change under the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC Ministry of Environment and Tourism Government of the Republic of Namibia United Nations Development Programme I&FF Assessments

2. 2 1. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Namibia (DRFN, 2008) Provides information on climate change in Namibia based on quantitative models. Makes forecasts of the expected changes in temperature and rainfall, and the future impacts of climate change The effects of flooding in the Northern Namibia, 2009 (courtesy of Die Republikein) (courtesy of MET)

3. 3 1. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Namibia (continued) Predicted climate changes: Averages temperatures will rise 1 o C – 3.5 o C during summer and 1 o C – 3.5 o C during winter by 2046-2065 In north and central regions, the rainy season will begin later and end earlier, with an increase in rainfall intensity Annual rainfall will become more variable, and there will more frequent occurrences of drought and flooding Evaporation and evapotranspiration will increase 5-15%

4. 4 1. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Namibia (continued) Predicted water resource impacts: Flows in perennial rivers will decrease up to 25% Recharge of aquifers will be reduced by 30-70% Predicted agricultural impacts: Reduced grazing distances Reduced productivity of traditional crop farming and livestock production Predicted socio-economic impacts: Reduced food security GDP will be adversely impacted as a result of climate change

5. 5 2. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings Research on Farming Systems Change to Enable Adaptation to Climate Change (UNAM, 2008) Focus entirely on preparing the agricultural sector for adaptation to climate change There are five farming systems to be considered in Namibia: > small-scale cereals and livestock > small stock production > mixed cattle ranching > intensive agriculture > natural resource production Himba woman herding cattle (Jason Longo, flickr.com)

6. 6 2. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings Research on Farming Systems Change to Enable Adaptation to Climate Change (continued) Existing programmes that are relevant to mitigating the impacts of climate change: Early Warning and Information System of MAWF and Emergency Management Unit of the Office of the Prime Minister Namibian Disaster Management Fund – source of readily available funds during times of natural disaster Namibia Farmers Seed Growers Cooperative – maintains a reserve of 100,000 tonnes of mahangu seed

7. 7 2. Recent Namibian Climate Change Studies and Findings Research on Farming Systems Change to Enable Adaptation to Climate Change (continued) Key recommendations: Government should establish a formal system to manage diverse farming data to support climate change monitoring and modeling Government should provide long-term funding for applied agricultural research to breed crops and livestock that are more adaptive to climate change Government should establish a climate change information and advice service to support affected stakeholders Mahangu growing in the field (http://www.alternativ.nu/bi lder/Namibia1.jpg)

8. 8 3. Overview of Predicted Climate Change Impacts by Sector Water Resources Reduced availability of freshwater in dams due to increased evaporation Recharge of aquifers reduced by 30-70% Flow rates in perennial rivers reduced by 25% Agriculture Reduced productivity of traditional crops Reduced livestock grazing distances Reduced carrying capacity of rangeland for livestock Drought in the Kunene Region (courtesy of MET)

9. 9 3. Overview of Predicted Climate Change Impacts by Sector Biodiversity and Tourism Significant increase in size of arid land areas Damage to important ecosystems and related potential risk of reduction in tourism Socio-economic Reduced food security, especially for rural poor Adverse impact on Namibia’s GDP Health Increased likelihood of diseases, especially malaria and cholera in flooded areas “Triple vulnerability” of HIV/AIDS sufferers: adverse climate conditions, poor health and associated economic impacts

10. 10 3. Overview of Predicted Climate Change Impacts by Sector Coastal areas and resources Damage to property and infrastructure from increased sea levels and storm surges Changes in sea temperature and acidity leading to reduced fish populations Energy Reduced production at the Ruacana hydroelectric power plant due to reduced flow rates in the Kunene River Increased need and opportunities to invest in renewable energy as a means to mitigate climate change

11. 11 Thank You