1. CHINA’S RISE AND THE FUTURE OF RUSSIA A book by Alexander Lukin Higher School of Economics 08.07.2015

3. Main Topics 1.The uniqueness of the Chinese civilization. 2.Soviet communism, traditions and Chinese Marxism. 3.China’s economic growth and theories of modernization and democratization. 4. Rising China – a challenge to the world? 5. China’s Rise and Russia’s reaction.

4. 1. The uniqueness of the Chinese civilization -Theory of special uniqueness of the Chinese civilization (Chinese authorities, Artem Kobzev) - Peking Man ( 北京猿人 ) 750 years BC - brain hemispheres - Chinese authorities (nationalism, territories) - history of Europe through the eyes of a Chinese

5. Uniqueness of the Chinese civilization. Reality 1.Foreign Invasions: Shang-In – Zhou, XI c. BC, X-XIII вв. – Khitan 契丹 (Liao) and Jurchens 女真 ( 金） ; XIII–XIV вв.- Mongols; XVII-XX c. – Manchu. 2. Assimilation (comp. with ср. Europe, India). Buddhism, Christianity, Sunyatsenism,, Marxism).

6. Уникальность китайской цивилизации. Действительность 4. Chinese written language (comp. Latin, Sanskrit 梵语 ). 5. Language of science, culture, architecture. 6. The revival of traditional culture is impossible (comp. Islam). 7. Discussion of the fate of traditional culture Lucian Pye: The spirit of Chinese politics. 1968 Joseph Levinson: Confucian China and Its Modern Fate (1958-1965) Tu Weiming

7. 2. Soviet Communism and Chinese Marxism 1.Reforms of the 1950s and the position of Stalin 2. Cultural Revolution and Stalin’s repressions. 3. Chinese reforms as a continuation of the right Bolshevik line

8. 3. China’s economic growth and theories of modernization and democratization 1.Modernization – middle class - democratization. 2. Waves of democratization (Huntington). 3.Is China taking the road of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan or its has its own way? 4. Question of China’s development: Is a large society with a level of welfare comparable to the West but without Western-style democratization and accepting the whole entirety of Western values possible? (Big Singapore).

9. 4. Rising China – a challenge to the world? 1.China has never won a war, never bombed any country, it has now military abroad (except for international peacekeeping), it does not want neighbors to be Communist or Confucian. So what is the reason for the China threat theory? (Theories that China is reviving the tributary system or is inevitably going to attack someone on the future). 2.China is a large “different” society. It’s very existence is a challenge to the unipolar vision of the world and the linear theory of social development. 3.In reality China’s approach to the world has nothing to do with the ancient tributary system. It is a mixture of various approaches but its essence is: we want to be on good terms with everybody and take what we need from everybody. 4.At the same time the USA and the West is seen as the main rival because they try to prevent China from taking its rightful place in the world.

10. 4. Rising China – a challenge to the world? 5. The idea of reform of global governance. 6. Growing nationalism is still controlled by the leadership. 7. The future of China is hard to predict. (Japan is No. 1. Vogel, Shambaugh). China’s interaction with the world will depend on this future. 8. If the alternative model emerges and exists for a lengthy period – China will ever more actively defend its interests. But it will try to reform the current international system, not to destroy it. And the West will have to accept it. 9. A crisis in China would be much more dangerous for Russia and for the world. It will cause a crisis of the global governance in a much more serius way than China’s rise.

11. 5. Rising China and the Future of Russia 1.The seriousness of Russia’s pivot to Asia depends on our vision of Russia’s future. If we want to be part of Europe we need to unite with as a junior subject (Europe and especially the US are not going to accept any other role for Russia) 2.This way is neither desirable nor possible. It will not be accepted by the majority of the population (clash of values). 3.China is a much lesser challenge since it does not impose its values on us. China’s expansionism is a myth. 4.China and Asia as a whole can not substitute the West as a partner for modernization. But they can give much more than they give at the moment. Therefore we need not a an “Asian Choice” but a serious Pivot to Asia plus pragmatic cooperation with the West with tough negotiations.

12. 5. Rising China and the Future of Russia 5. Can a threat from China emerge in the future? Only in case radical nationalists come to power. But this will deliver a serious blow to Chinese economy and will cause a crisis. China’s economy is export oriented, it depends on imports and it cannot operate in the situation of confrontation with the world. 6. Conclusion: Russia should develop comprehensive cooperation with China, trying to substitute as much as it can in order to overcome the excessive dependency on the West. At the same time it should not become to dependent on China and it should develop good relations with other Asian countries.