1. Write a one sentence overview on what we will learn today based on this picture.

2. Climate Change: Fitting the pieces together Atmosphere Ocean Polar Ice Human/natural influence Ecosystem

3. Present day observations

4. Change in TempChange in Temp

5. Past Data: How do we know? Data Collection! Tree ring data Ice Core Fossil Evidence Patterns and chemical comp in coral skeletons

6. Hadley Centre, 2003 Surface, balloon, & satellite temperatures agree

7. Temperature increases are nonuniform: higher mid-continent, highest of all in far North. (These are observations, not modeling results.) J. Hansen et al., PNAS 103: 14288-293 (26 Sept 2006) 2001-2005 mean ∆T avg above 1951-80 base, °C

8. Evaporation & precipitation are increasing NCDC, 2000 Effect is not uniform; most places getting wetter, some getting drier.

9. GLACIERS ARE MELTING

10. Muir Glacier, Alaska, 1941-2004 NSIDC/WDC for Glaciology, Boulder, compiler. 2002, updated 2006. Online glacier photograph database. Boulder, CO: National Snow and Ice Data Center. August 1941August 2004 Coastal glaciers are retreating

11. The most startling evidence yet… The melting of the Arctic

12. MELTING OF THE ARCTIC. New predictions Satellite observations Mean IPCC prediction Most likely change (melt) IPCC range Actual observed melting it has melted nearly 80 YEARS ahead of when scientists predicted YEAR % change in ice cover

13. WEATHER IS BECOMING MORE EXTREME

14. MAJOR FLOODS PER DECADE

15. Australia fires spark calls for CLIMATE ACTION “ ” - Washington Post, March 1, 2006

16. The trend has been upward everywhere. Wildfires by continent & decade from 1950

17. Westerling et al., SCIENCE, 18 August 2006 Correlation of wildfire increases with temperature is clear

18. Running, Science, 18 August 2006 This works in part through soil moisture

19. Australia suffers worst drought in 1,000 years “ ” - Guardian UK, Nov 7, 2008

21. SEA LEVELS ARE RISING Three Year Average Satellite Altimetry Year Sea Level Change (cm)

22. 1993-2003 ≈ 35 mm = 3.5 mm/yr; compare 1910-1990 = 1.5±0.5 mm/yr. Sea-level is rising mm ACIA, 2004

23. Further evidence of changing climate Observations Show… Evaporation & rainfall are increasing; Coastal glaciers are retreating; Mountain glaciers are disappearing; Permafrost is thawing; Sea ice is shrinking; Greenland is melting; Sea level is rising; Species are moving.

24. Why should we care? Temp expected to increase by 2-13 o F by 2100

25. Oceans absorb more CO 2 Some expected changes… Warmer temps mean mosquitoes, ticks and rodents expand their range Less snow—people who depend on snow-fed reservoirs for water 5-20% inc. in crop yield, but more prone to failure with increase temp and decrease in precipitation

26. OCEANS ARE ACIDIFYING

27. FORESTS ARE THREATENED

28. Coral reefs are bleaching

29. threatens the survival of SMALL ISLANDS Already, the president of the Maldives has created an investment fund from tourism earnings so the nation can buy a new homeland in Sri Lanka and India, for its citizens in case of massive flooding.

30. Sea-level rise projections : a few inches to a few feet 2 ft: U.S. would lose 10,000 square miles 3 ft: Would inundate Miami Affects erosion, loss of wetlands, freshwater supplies Half of the world’s population lives along coasts

31. What changes climate? Changes in: Sun’s output Earth’s orbit Drifting continents Volcanic eruptions Greenhouse gases

32. Earth’s Atmosphere CO 2 is found in troposphere.

33. THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT

34. “Greenhouse effect” Increasing greenhouse gases trap more heat

35. Greenhouse gases Nitrous oxide Water Carbon dioxide Methane Sulfur hexafluoride

36. Atmospheric CO 2 Levels http://climate.nasa.gov/key_indicators

37. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS ARE OFF THE CHARTS CO2 in PPM TEMPERATURE Years Parts per Million CO2 TODAY: 387ppm 550ppm? More? EARLY 1900S LAST ICE AGE Where we’ll be mid-century if we keep this up

38. 390ppm CO2 today: Raising by 2ppm/year

40. The Industrial Revolution changed our energy consumption

41. Combustion Reactions produce CO 2 Combustion Reaction: CH 4 + O 2  CO 2 + H 2 O (Fossil fuel)

42. CO2 IN THE ATMOSPHERE WE’RE HERE: 387 WE NEED TO BE HERE: 350 PARTS PER MILLION CO2 YEAR

43. ? HOW DO WE GET TO Can we fix it? Yes we can!!

45. IT MEANS PLANTING TREES INSTEAD OF CLEAR-CUTTING RAINFORESTS

46. IT MEANS PUTTING UP WIND TURBINES INSTEAD OF COAL PLANTS

47. PARTS PER MILLION CO2 YEAR Phase-out of coal by 2030 Improved forestry and soil Reduced oil/gas use GETTING TO 350

48. Spread the word… http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zORv8wwiadQ