1. Jump to first page Dr. Honghui Deng Assistant Professor MIS Department UNLV IS 488 IT Project Management

2. Jump to first page 2 Today n Assignment 1 due n Questions from chapter 3 n A Day in the Life n Chapter 4 – Cost n Project progress report n For next week

3. Jump to first page 3 Video 11 Project Cost/Completion Chapter 4 Cost

4. Jump to first page 4 4. Cost Estimates n The aggregate cost of work units described in the work breakdown structure. n The work unit approach makes cost estimating more manageable. n There are situations where an overall cost of a project is required for the initial decision and before WBS is done.

5. Jump to first page 5 4. Costs n Tangible – easier to estimate. F E.g., routers, switches, connectors, cables, servers, and human resources. n Intangible – difficult to evaluate. F E.g., cost benefit analysis of outsourcing or offshoring information system function in terms of security, privacy, know how, innovation, etc.

6. Jump to first page 6 4. Costs n Direct – associated with a work unit F E.g., hours worked on a unit or the portion of management time (direct overhead costs) used for a work unit. n Indirect – difficult to assign F E.g., promotional expenses for the entire organization; difficult to prorate portion of this cost to a work unit or a project.

7. Jump to first page 7 4. Payback analysis n Payback period – the length of time that it takes to recover the amount of money invested in the technology. n Payback occurs when the cumulative benefits are greater than cumulative costs. n For short-term investors, the payback period may be only a couple of years.

8. Jump to first page 8 4. Payback analysis for two projects Project AYr1Yr2Yr3Yr4Yr5Yr6Total Cost20,000 10,000 5,000 70,000 Revenue0030,00040,00030,00020,000120,000 Difference(20,000) 20,00030,00025,00015,00050,000 Cumulative(20,000)(40,000)(20,000)10,00035,00050,000 Project BYr1Yr2Yr3Yr4Yr5Yr6Total Cost25,000 15,00010,0005,000 85,000 Revenue10,00015,00045,00030,00020,00010,000120,000 Difference(15,000)(10,000)30,00020,00015,0005,00045,000 Cumulative(15,000)(25,000)5,00025,00040,00045,000

9. Jump to first page 9 4. Net Present Value n The formula for calculating NPV is: NPV = ∑ t=1 …n A/(1+r) t where t represents the year in which cash flow occurs, A represents the amount of cash flow for that year, and r represents the discount rate. n Using a specified rate of interest, this formula sums up the present value for the number of years that estimates have been made.

10. Jump to first page 10 4. NPV example n The present value of $3,000 cost projected for the third year of a project with an interest rate of 15% is $1972.50; calculated as: $3000 * 1/(1+0.15) 3 or $3000 * 0.6575 = $1972.50 n If the projected revenue for the same project in the third year is $2,000 then the present value will be $1512.20; calculated as: $2000 * 1/(1+0.15) 3 or $2000 * 0.6575 = $1512.30

11. Jump to first page 11 4. Discount factors at 15% YearFormulaDiscount factor 11/(1+0.15) 1 0.8696 21/(1+0.15) 2 0.7561 31/(1+0.15) 3 0.6575 41/(1+0.15) 4 0.5718 51/(1+0.15) 5 0.4972 61/(1+0.15) 6 0.4323

12. Jump to first page 12 4. Payback analysis for Project A Project AYr1Yr2Yr3Yr4Yr5Yr6Total Cost20,000 10,000 5,000 70,000 Revenue0030,00040,00030,00020,000120,000 Difference(20,000) 20,00030,00025,00015,00050,000 Cumulative(20,000)(40,000)(20,000)10,00035,00050,000

13. Jump to first page 13 4. NPV for Project A n Year 1 =.8696 * ($20,000)= ($17,392) n Year 2 =.7561 * ($20,000)= ($15,122) n Year 3 =.6575 * $20,000= $13,150 n Year 4 =.5718 * $30,000= $17,154 n Year 5 =.4972 * $25,000= $12,430 n Year 6 =.4323 * $15,000= $6,485 NPV (Project A) = ∑ t=1 …n A/(1+r) t = $16,705

14. Jump to first page 14 4. ROI analysis for Project A YearFactorRevenueDisc. Rev.CostDisc. Cost 10.8696$0 ($20,000)($17,392) 20.7561$0 ($20,000)($15,122) 30.6575$30,000$19,725($10,000)($6,575) 40.5718$40,000$22,872($10,000)($5,718) 50.4972$30,000$14,916($5,000)($2,486) 60.4323$20,000$8,646($5,000)($2,162) Total$120,000$66,159($70,000)($49,455)

15. Jump to first page 15 4. ROI analysis for Project B YearFactorRevenueDisc. Rev.CostDisc. Cost 10.8696$10,000$8,696($25,000)($21,740) 20.7561$15,000$11,342($25,000)($18,903) 30.6575$45,000$29,588($15,000)($9,863) 40.5718$30,000$17,154($10,000)($5,718) 50.4972$20,000$9,944($5,000)($2,486) 60.4323$10,000$4,323($5,000)($2,162) Total$120,000$81,047($85,000)($60,872)

16. Jump to first page 16 4. ROI – Projects A & B n ROI for Project A: ($66,159 – $49,455)/49,455 * 100 = 33.8% n ROI for Project B: ($81,047 – $60,872)/60,872 * 100 = 33.1%

17. Jump to first page 17 4. Caution n There is a risk in using a single measure to evaluate the potential contribution of a project. n Many organizations put a limit on their project payback period. n Many would use a minimum rate of return on investment. n There are pros and cons to having rigid standards. n IT investment is treated differently.

18. Jump to first page 18 4. Sources of estimates n Experience – individuals within the organization. u this method considers workplace culture, talent pool, interorganizational relations, and HR policies. u Overestimation? u Underestimation? u ‘Safe’ estimates?

19. Jump to first page 19 4. Sources of estimates n Documentation – archival information from previous projects. u Relatively current? u Similar projects? u Free from bias? Politics? u Based on actual recorded numbers. u Adjustment may be necessary if changes have occurred since the document was prepared – new laws, new equipment, change in working hours, and holidays.

20. Jump to first page 20 4. Sources of estimates n Expert opinion – widely used and includes a broad pool of internal and external experts. u Similar to experience in pros and cons u Used for new and innovative systems where little record exists. u More formalized and expensive. u May require visits by external experts and sharing of information.

21. Jump to first page 21 4. Considerations n A combination of internal and external estimates, while costly, has advantages. n Team members should be involved with providing estimates but the project manager must be aware of biases. n Provide supporting material on methods of estimation. n Establish guidelines for cost and time estimation.

22. Jump to first page 22 4. Considerations n Based on history and experience, project managers may adjust estimates given by individuals. n This, in turn, will result in further adjustment (overestimation or underestimation) by those providing estimates. n This cycle creates ‘game play’ and a non- productive environment. n It may be necessary to work out some kind of reward for reliable and accurate estimates.

23. Jump to first page 23 4. Hints n Use work units and bottom-up approach. n Define clearly work units and tasks. n Avoid memory recollection. n Involve team members to improve commitments and match tasks and skills. n Obtain multiple estimates: u The best case scenario. u The most probable scenario. u The worst case scenario. n Assign weights to these estimates.

24. Jump to first page 24 4. Multiple estimates n Use average scores and variance. n Provide contingency resources for estimates with large variance. n Calculate ‘upper limit’ and ‘lower limit’ measures for project duration. n Example: A project is estimated to take 165 hours to complete with a standard deviation of 29 hours. Assuming + and – 3 standard deviations, we will have:

25. Jump to first page 25 4. Multiple estimates n The project upper limit: (3 * 29 + 165) = 252 hours n The project lower limit: (-3 * 29 + 165) = 78 hours n Upper limit as % of estimate: (252/165)100 = 152.73% n Lower limit as % of estimate: (78/165)100 = 47.27% There is a high probability that the project will be complete within 78 to 252 hours. The project completion time may be over extended or under extended by about 53%.

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27. Jump to first page 27 4. Phase estimating n Sometimes, due to uncertainty, estimates are feasible for initial phase only. n Only rough estimates of subsequent phases are initially feasible. n Project development life cycle (initiation, planning, development, implementation, closure) can be the base for phase estimating. n Project owners and sponsors must commit to a project with incomplete information about cost and time – not always an easy situation.

28. Jump to first page 28 4. Considerations n Estimates are used to request funding, make decisions, schedule, negotiate, set goals, evaluate performance, etc. n Events happen, technology advances, priorities change, and biases creep in. n Credibility of the estimates and those preparing them must be considered. n Methods, their appropriateness, strengths, and weaknesses must be explained. n Assume ‘normal conditions’ – free from extreme case assumptions.

29. Jump to first page 29 4. Contingency plan n For out-of-ordinary situations. n Extreme or extraordinary situations. n Funds must be appropriated at the planning phase of the project development life cycle. n Document and communicate contingency situations. n Such funds are not directly accessible by the project manager. n Simply adding a margin to estimates must be avoided; suggests poor planning, interpreted as add-on slush money by watchful sponsors.

30. Jump to first page 30 4. Risk analysis n Appropriate where there is uncertainty regarding activity duration. n Leads to developing alternative responses. n Includes prediction or likelihood of happening. n Includes estimate of risk impact n Depending on the nature and size of a project, it could be more or less extensive, detailed, or formalized. n Leads to a change management process.

31. Jump to first page 31 4. Change management n Change is beneficial - innovative ideas or suggestions are often made by team members. n A change management committee can facilitate and encourage change proposals. n With the approval of management, additional resources can be provided through contingency funds.

32. Jump to first page 32 4. Change management n Membership includes stakeholders from the entire organization. Change management committee must: u identify possible risks u predict the likelihood of risks happening u estimate risks impact u communicate risks to stakeholders u prepare alternative response.

33. Jump to first page 33 4. Change management n Changes must be consistent with the overall goals and objectives of the organization and the broad scope of the project. n Responses to change requests must be timely, especially for time-sensitive changes. n Proposals to drastically change a project may replace the project with a new one.

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35. Jump to first page 35 4. Discussion question n Assume you are working for an organization that is keen to invest in information technology to improve employee innovation, productivity, customer satisfaction, and management control. However, top management in your organization has a short-term payback expectation for their technology investment. Explain to the leadership of your organization why such a policy may be dysfunctional in the long term.

36. Jump to first page 36 4. Discussion question n This chapter argues that organizational game play and politics are a function of management decision-making style. Do you agree with this statement? Why? n Is it possible to totally eliminate organizational politics?

37. Jump to first page 37 4. Discussion question n Assume you are an IT project manager. How would you deal with issues of politics and game play that affect time and cost estimates for your projects?

38. Jump to first page 38 4. Discussion question n Would your reaction be the same overestimation and underestimation of cost and time? n When do you think ‘overestimation’ happens? ‘Underestimation’?

39. Jump to first page 39 Work Package Estimates

40. Jump to first page 40 4. In-class assignment n Do exercise 4.10-c in Chapter 4 (payback analysis, NPV, and ROI for two projects).

41. Jump to first page 41 4. Exercise 4.10(c)- payback analysis Project AYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Total Cost5,0001,000 9,000 Revenue3,000 15,000 Difference(2,000)2,000 6,000 Cumulative(2,000)02,0004,0006,000 Project BYr 1Yr 2Yr 3Yr 4Yr 5Total Cost2,000 10,000 Revenue5,0004,0003,0002,0001,00015,000 Difference3,0002,0001,0000(1,000)5,000 Cumulative3,0005,0006,000 5,000

42. Jump to first page 42 4. Exercise 4.10(c)- 12% Disc factor YearFormulaDiscount factor 11/(1+0.12) 1 0..8929 21/(1+0.12) 2 0.7972 31/(1+0.12) 3 0.7118 41/(1+0.12) 4 0.6355 51/(1+0.12) 5 0.5674

43. Jump to first page 43 4. NPV for Project A n Year 1 =. 8929 * ($2,000) = ($1786) n Year 2 =. 7972 * $2,000 = $1594 n Year 3 =. 7118 * $2,000 = $1424 n Year 4 =. 6355 * $2,000 = $1272 n Year 5 =. 5674 * $2,000 = $1135 NPV (Project A) = ∑ t=1 …n A/(1+r) t = $3,639

44. Jump to first page 44 4. NPV for Project B n Year 1 =. 8929 * $3,000 = $2679 n Year 2 =. 7972 * $2,000 = $1594 n Year 3 =. 7118 * $1,000 = $712 n Year 4 =. 6355 * $0= $ 0 n Year 5 =. 5674 * $(1,000)= $(567) NPV (Project A) = ∑ t=1 …n A/(1+r) t = $4,418

45. Jump to first page 45 4. ROI analysis for Project A YearFactorRevenueDisc. Rev.CostDisc. Cost 10..8929$3,000$2679($5,000)($4465) 20.7972$3,000$2392($1,000)($797) 30.7118$3,000$2135($1,000)($712) 40.6355$3,000$1907($1,000)($636) 50.5674$3,000$1702($1,000)($567) Total$15,000$10,815($9,000)($7,177)

46. Jump to first page 46 4. ROI analysis for Project B YearFactorRevenueDisc. Rev.CostDisc. Cost 10.8929$5,000$4465($2,000)($1786) 20.7972$4,000$3189($2,000)($1594) 30.7118$3,000$2135($2,000)($1424) 40.6355$2,000$1272($2,000)($1271) 50.5674$1,000$567($2,000)($1135) Total$15,000$11,628($10,000)($7,210)

47. Jump to first page 47 4. Exercise 4.10(c)- ROI n Formula: (Disc Revenue – Disc Cost)/Disc Cost*100 n Project A: ($10,815 - $7,177)/$7,177 * 100 = 50.7% n Project B: ($11,628 - $7,210)/$7,210* 100 = 61.3%

48. Jump to first page 48 4. For next class n Read Clark County Credit Union case at the end of Chapter 7 and prepare discussion notes about: F lessons learned F what you would do differently F relevance to what you have learned in this course so far F other issues

49. Jump to first page 49 4. For next class n Read PM Skills article (in Notes folder) and prepare discussion notes about the study findings, methods, your response compared with results, and so on.

50. Jump to first page 50 4. Exercise n Use a spreadsheet to calculate NPV for Projects A and B in Table 4.1. n Calculate ROI for information provided in Table 4.1 using different interest rates.