1. Cattle Markets: Situation, Outlook, and Issues Oklahoma State University Webinar September 9, 2014 James G. Robb Director

2. USDA Members: ERS APHIS GIPSA NASS WAOB AMS Associate Members: AFBF ASI NCBA NPB CME-Group Canadian Consortium Noble Foundation CoBank TCFA CWB TCU NWFCS 28 Land Grant Universities:

3. Topics: Price Drivers and … Perspective on Cattle Prices Beef Demand –Domestic –Foreign Markets Feedstuffs Backdrop A Few Comments on Poultry and Pork More on Cattle Markets –U.S. Cattle Inventory –Cost and Return Prospects Time to Plan is Now USDA Data Sources – NASS, AMS, FAS, and ERS All Forecasts – LMIC

4. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

5. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

6. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

7. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

8. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

9. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

10. US Consumer Demand and Consumption (Disappearance)

11. Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Livestock Marketing Information Center

12. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

13. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

14. Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA-ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

15. International Trade Perspective

16. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

17. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

18. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

19. Feedstuffs -- Corn

21. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

22. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

23. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

24. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

25. Poultry and Pork

26. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

27. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

28. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

29. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

30. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

31. Cattle

32. BEEF COWS THAT CALVED JANUARY 1, 2014 (1000 Head) U.S. Total: 29042 Data Source: USDA-NASS

33. CHANGE IN BEEF COWS NUMBERS JANUARY 1, 2013 TO JANUARY 2014 (1000 Head) U.S. Total: -255 Data Source: USDA-NASS

34. Livestock Marketing Information Center

35. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

36. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

37. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

38. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

39. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

40. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

41. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

42. Data Source: USDA-AMS, NASS, Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

43. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center Latest Data: August 2014

44. Economic Environment: Cow/Calf Plan Now Domestic Consumer Beef Demand Has Improved Foreign Beef Demand Surprisingly Strong Chicken and Pork Output Ramping-Up Controls Already Set to Reduced Beef Output Throughout 2015 Cattle Price Peak on the Horizon: 2015, 2016, or 2017? Mistakes Are Costly, Sound Business Practices Required Feedstuff Costs Down But Still High – Forage is Valuable Time To Plan is Now! Estimate Income Visit with Tax Professional Develop Alternatives and Evaluate Ranch ROI

45. Taxes Captive Supply Packer Ban CWT QE II OIE Imports Oil Price BEV CFTC APA Free Trade Agreements QSA Farm Bill RFS Immigration Legislation FoodPrices LRP Risk Mgmt Cost of Production Ethanol Exchange Rate Food Safety Horse Harvesting GE Animals H1N1 Grades & Standards Animal Rights GIPSA- Rule Financial Regulation EPA Rules Phytosanitary Crop Insurance Formula Pricing GMO Seed ABF (Antibiotic Free) Issues, Issues, Issues…. LFTB QUALITY AMA’s i-rate Excess Capacity Beta-agonists TSC – The Sustainability Consortium Price Discovery PEDv

46. Thank You! www.lmic.info