1. Frontiers of Aviation Reflection

2. Lesson Objectives  Comprehend the central themes in the evolution of airpower from early balloon flight until the present day  Understand the key developments that may impact the evolution of aviation in the next few decades

3. Why Study History “There are human truths to be derived from history, and truths well worth the telling, some large, some small, some general, some technical. Some, if not the most important, of the problems which face society today are not new ones…The purpose of historical investigation is to produce answers, in the form of concepts and generalizations to the fundamental problems of historical change in the social activities of men.” J.H. Plumb

4. The Historical Approach How can we understand anything of other people or ourselves, if we know nothing of history? The historian shows us how change has worked in the past and helps us to understand the present and make educated guesses about the future.

5. Course Timeline Marking Period 1 Origin of FlightEarly AircraftWWIInterwar Years Marking Period 2 Interwar YearsWWIIAftermath Marking Period 4 Desert StormKosovoAfghanistanWhat’s Next Marking Period 3 Nuclear AgeCommercial AircraftKoreaVietnam

6. Themes in Aviation - Theory  Did aviation revolutionize the world as envisioned or foreseen by its early pioneers and/or Theorists? – Balloonists? – Civil War? – Wright Brothers? – World War I? – World War II?

7.  What can the evolution of airpower during the interwar years teach us about the importance of matching a coherent strategy/policy to a realistic assessment of the future? – Can you predict the future with consistent accuracy? – Can you predict emerging technology? – Does having the best technology ensure victory?  So….what can you do to set a right path forward? – System flexibility? (United States/United Kingdom/Russia) – Communication? (Japan) – Commonality of goal? (Japan) – Old Thinking (France/Italy) – Realistic appreciation of resources and capability (Germany) Themes – Interwar Period

8. Themes – Changing World  Did airpower fundamentally change not only how war is fought, but more importantly national policies and even culture? – Nuclear Weapons – Cuban Missile Crisis – Rise of commercial aviation – Vietnam War vs. Operation Desert Storm – Space Technologies

9. Themes – What’s Next?  So, let’s do a little forecasting of our own… – Technological Advances and Technologies on the Horizon? – Will the world continue to get smaller (Advanced Communications, Commercialization of Space)? – Natural Resources? – Global Warming?  How do you prepare?  Can the evolution of Aviation give us an example?

11. Frontiers of Aviation Reflection