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CSLI Wrap-Up Meeting, Fall 2014 Review the process Review the findings Analyze - Hypotheses.

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Presentation on theme: "CSLI Wrap-Up Meeting, Fall 2014 Review the process Review the findings Analyze - Hypotheses."— Presentation transcript:

1 CSLI Wrap-Up Meeting, Fall 2014 Review the process Review the findings Analyze - Hypotheses

2  Questionnaire issues - questions - Did some questions give you more problems than others?  Clarity  Public constantly asked for restatement  Vagueness of what is being asked  Did the respondents seem to think that the questions were generally interesting?  Did the respondents think that the survey was too long or short?  Other suggestions? Review the process - 1

3  Public receptivity  Were you surprised by how easy/hard it was to obtain a completion?  Problems with phone numbers?  Idle chatter from respondents?  Bias among interviewers?  Partial completions?  Other suggestions Review the process - 3

4 County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘00 to Fall ‘14

5 Right/Wrong Direction –County, State, Nation, Respondent LevelsDem.Rep.Unaffiliated S ‘14F ‘14S ‘14F ‘14S ‘14F ‘14 County56 48414458 State48411882434 Nation40311572128

6 Most Important Problem: Fall 2007 to Fall 2014

7 Economic Conditions: (% excellent+good) County vs. Maryland and USA (Fall ‘07 to F ’14)

8 Economic Conditions: (% excellent+good) County vs. Maryland and USA (Fall ‘07 to F ’14)

9 Condition S ‘14F ‘14 Under $75,00 0 $75,000+ Taxes are too high in relation to the government services provided 6574 7972 Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living 5763 7255 Hard to afford the cost of education --45 4740 Health care insurance is unavailable, too expensive or inadequate 2640 4629 Hard to afford cost of food and groceries --33 4522 Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently 3633 2344 Facing the possibility of unemployment 1617 2213 Found a new or better job recently 1412 1014 Income Groups and Economic Indicators

10 SupportOpposeUnsure/NA Doubling the number of high schools over the next 20 years, but making them much smaller than current high schools 543214 Removing speed cameras and losing $300,000 in county income 44479 Increasing the county’s income tax rate to help create a high school in Crofton 286210 Increasing the salary of the next county executive from $130,000 to $142,000 19747 State and County Proposals – Support, Oppose, Unsure The County's storm water fee, which pays for repairs of storm pipes and waterways to decrease pollution, will generate $17 million next year and $22 million the following year. Do you feel this fee – currently costing $85 a year for a single family home - is too low, too high, or just right? Too low 5 About right 46 Too high 38 NA 11 Which option to you prefer – cutting property taxes by 3 percent, or adding more county services related to education or public safety Cut taxes 52 Add services 41 Unsure 4 NA 3

11 State and County Proposals – Support, Oppose, Unsure The County's storm water fee, which pays for repairs of storm pipes and waterways to decrease pollution, will generate $17 million next year and $22 million the following year. Do you feel this fee – currently costing $85 a year for a single family home - is too low, too high, or just right? Too low 5 About right 46 Too high 38 NA 11 Which option to you prefer – cutting property taxes by 3 percent, or adding more county services related to education or public safety Cut taxes 52 Add services 41 Unsure 4 NA 3

12 State and County Proposals – Support, Oppose, Unsure Which option to you prefer – cutting property taxes by 3 percent, or adding more county services related to education or public safety Cut taxes 52 Add services 41 Unsure 4 NA 3

13 Level of Info – Gov/CE Level of Information about Candidates’ Stands in Race for Governor Governor County Executive

14 Vote Choice/Likely Winner Governor County Executive I will vote for… Percentage Vote for Brown 22 Vote for Hogan 51 Someone else 2 Undecided 24 Won’t vote for any 1 Won’t say, NA 1 Winner will be…Percentage Anthony Brown53 Larry Hogan23 Unsure or no answer 24 I will vote for…Percentage Vote for George Johnson26 Vote for Steve Schuh40 Undecided32 Won’t vote for any/NA2 Total100 Winner will be…Percentage George Johnson 25 Steve Schuh 41 Unsure or no answer34

15 Party Strength/Defections Dem Strong Dem Somewha t Strong Dem Not Strong Rep Strong Rep Somewha t Strong Rep Not Strong Overall13 (30)14 (33)15 (35)14 (39)17 (43)6 (16) Hogan62458898235 Brown72468275 Undecided19263191260 Schuh91434746840 Johnson7039307410 Undecided174634192650 Governor County Executive

16 Governor FactorOverall Brown Voters Hogan Voters Undecid ed Taxes 24113120 Economy (jobs, general) 1210149 Background, Experience 9574 Education 817111 Ethics/Honesty/Integrity 851011 Party 82054 Broad vision/plan 68313 Main factor in deciding vote… County Executive FactorOverallJohnsonSchuhUndecided Taxes 25103523 Background, Experience 12161110 Ethics/Honesty/Integrity 1081110 Party 1018102 Education 916310 Broad vision/plan 87712 Economy 5545

17 Main Factor Overall: Gov/CE

18 Main Factor Comparison: Gov/CE

19 Party Strength/Defections

20 Presidential job approval Fall 2007 to Fall 2013

21 Presidential Job Approval by Party Registration Fall 2009 to Fall 2014

22 Exercise: Develop Hypotheses 1.Identify a dependent variable – attitude, preference 2.Identify an independent variable – a social/demographic characteristic 3.Specify a likely relationship between the two based on a “theory” or hunch you have about people and attitudes


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