1. Civil Engineering Department Watershed Design Laboratory
Ritsumeikan University
Graduate School of Science and Engineering
Advanced Architectural, Environmental and Civil Engineering
Master Thesis Defense
FLOOD RUNOFF ANALYSIS AND WATER AVAILABILITY FOR INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANNING IN PANJ-E-AMU
Presenter: Fayezurahman Azizi
ID :
Academic advisor: Prof.Satofuka Yoshifumi
Civil Engineering Department
Watershed Design Laboratory
Date:
Panj-e-Amu Basin in the Upper Panj area (Panj River)

2. Thesis Structure Chapter 1. Introduction Chapter 2. Literature Review
Study area and Dataset
Chapter 4.
Approach and Methodology
Chapter 5.
Flood Runoff Analysis
Chapter 6.
Hydrological Analysis for Water Availability
Chapter 7.
Conclusions and Recommendation

3. Introduction overview Afghanistan is divided to five major basin
Over 80% percent of the population relies directly on the natural resources of the River basins.
Provides the Upstream water of four major river basin that flow into neighboring countries
The restructuring of river basins was started in 2011
The IWRM concept in the river basins is to promote a decentralization of water resource management and water planning into river basin-level and sub-basin level management.

4. Problems and issues
Lack of Water Resources planning throughout the River Basin
Environmental degradation
Extreme flood disaster and erosion problems
The lack of historical data
Demand for water needs has dramatically increased
Darqad
Sheberghan
Balkh
Samangan
Kunduz
Takhar
The most Vulnerable cities along Amu River
Taloqan River
Kokcha River
Kunduz River
Dashti-Qala
Kaldar
Hairatan A O E D
Darqad

5. Objectives The specific objectives are:
The purpose of this study is how to analyze flood runoff and evaluate water availability based on the hydrological process using the IFAS and WEAP models , to utilize its result as a step for integrated river basin management planning and dams’ feasibility.
The specific objectives are:
Calculating rainfall-runoff for flood runoff analysis and estimate flood probability
Compare the correlation of GSMAP-NRT estimated rainfall and river discharge data by IFAS with ground based data.
Calculating the annual average rainfall loss , effective rainfall and water loss
Estimate the supply ability of the basin to its future water demands
Assess the direct runoff coefficient of river regime flow , water availability and basin characteristics

6. Study Area
This Basin accounts for about 57% percent of the annual water discharge of the country
Estimated irrigation area total is about 424,000 ha

7. Dataset and characteristics of The Panj-e-Amu River Basin
New Stations at the same location of old H.ST
New Hydrological Stations
Existing Dam
The 32 Hydrological stations data are still available
The annual average precipitation is about 400 mm ( )
annual average temperature is about 13.6 C ( )
Max (43.2C◦) Lower Kunduz basin
Min (-32.7C◦) Upper Panj basin
The terrain (DEM) of the Basin ranges from 200 m to 7470 m
Two Irrigation and hydropower dam
Location of the Stations
Bare Rock with loamy very fine sand is covered the most part of the basin while Silt Loam is the second and Rock with Loamy Very Fine Sand is the third

8. Approach and Methodology
For the Watershed Design sustainability, development of integrated management planning aspects, must be considered.
Be able to analyze and control flood disaster to reduce the economic damages
Be able to allocate water balance of the basin for prospective planning
Be able to assess the river basin characteristics and ability
The Following Approaches and methodology used in this study
IFAS
Gumbel extreme-value distribution
Data collection /Handling
WEAP Model Water Evaluation and planning
Flood Runoff analysis
Flood Frequency analysis/Return periods, Probability exceedance
Hydrological Process /water Availability, Rainfall losses
Water Allocation
River basin Management planning
Future Water Demands
Supply
Integrated Flood Analysis System
Hydrological Data
Meteorological Data
Geological Data
𝑥 𝑇 = 𝑥 +𝐾 𝜎 𝑛−1

9. IFAS Processing Structure
Display of results
Runoff analysis
Modeling
Rainfall Data
IFAS Processing structure
PWRI-Distributed Model Ver2.0
Tables & Graphs
satellite- based rainfall data -GSMAP-NRT(JAXA)
Building channel network,
Importing Target Elevation and Land Use (GLCC-USGS)
Global Map (ISCGM) spatial resolution 30 sec
Kokcha
Ground-based rainfall data (WRD-Stations)
Estimation and Modifies Water Tanks Parameter
Flow of surface
IFAS is an Integrated Flood Analysis System, calculates river discharge based on GIS data .
Entire World Rainfall Data are Available
IFAS goal is oriented to the developing countries which is lack of hydro meteorological data .

10. Create Area (Kokcha Sub- Basin) Make and Compared Scenarios
Processing Structure
WEAP is an unique approach for conducting integrated water resources planning assessments
Calculates water demand, supply, runoff, reservoir and power production under different hydrologic and policy scenarios
Evaluates a full range of water development and management options
WEAP Processing
Schematic data of the basin
Create Area (Kokcha Sub- Basin)
Insert GIS Layer
Create Account years ( ) for calculation
Draw River Line
Inter Monthly Average Flow
Demand Priority (Faizabad City , Agriculture)
Connect Demand With Supply
Connect return flow link
Make and Compared Scenarios
Change Irrigation Rate
Change Growth rate Pop (2.4,3, 5%) scenarios
References scenario ( )
Reservoirs and Power Production calculations
Modeling Runoff-River Power Plant
Hydropower Computation
Kokcha (Modeling Reservoirs )
Results of Calculations
Schematics
Tables
Charts
Run the WEAP for calculation
Start

11. Results and Discussions - Flood Runoff Analysis by IFAS
Summary of Flood Limits (M3/Sec) For The Panj-e-Amu River Basin, April,2012
Based on GSMAP-NRT Rainfall(mm) data
Base on Hourly Ground Rainfall(mm)
Measurement Discharge No
Station
River
Low- Flood
Medium-Flood
High-flood
Low- Discharge
Medium-Discharge
High-Discharge 1
Khojaghar
Kokcha
419.08
569.35
599.42
451
682.13
102.00
137.5
190.00 2
Faizabad
193.58
287.37
389.82
245.51
421.49
666.13
127
148.2
169.00 3
Keshem
47.59
67.19
70.20
57.74
81.82
126.96 6
7.5
9.00 4
Teshkan
15.81
24.19
25.58
18.28
30.23
48.96
8.8
8.9
9.1 5
Anjuman
munjan
7.26
9.59
10.00
8.15
12.8
22.82
1.12
1.2
1.32
Jurm
2.18
2.57
2.65
1.86
3.42
5.29
23.6
30.9
33.4 7
Baharak
Shuhada
6.40
8.89
9.30 19
32.38 9
10.0 11 8
Shashpul
4.34
6.03
6.35
21.69 32
55.83
24.8
27.1
30.1
Location of Hydrological Stations are used for calculation/IFAS
Khojaghar
The IFAS by using the data of Satellite GSMAP-NRT rainfall calculated the peak discharge of magnitude m3/sec on 2012/04/15 at 24 hours.
While the IFAS by using the data of ground rainfall calculated the peak discharge of magnitude 1101 m3/sec on 2012/04/29 at 24 hours.
Kokcha

12. Results and Discussions - Flood Runoff Analysis
The IFAS showed high river course discharge with GSMAP-NRT rainfall than measured data in most cases
The base flow and peak discharge calculated based on Ground rainfall (Hourly and Daily) are shown the highest in each and every case
The discharge calculated by the Satellite GSMAP_NRT rainfall is well agreement with the measured discharge in some places
The tendency and total amount values of rainfall based GSMAP-NRT are smaller ,but in case heavy rainfall event over mm/h, the tendency and amount of some points are near to each other’s
The correlation of satellite-based rainfall and ground-based rainfall is almost ,50%

13. Results (Cont) - Gumbel extreme-value distribution method
First graph Shows the probability of flood frequency period based on years data
The Probable floods Hydrograph is prepared by using a recorded flood Peak for the interval of 1.01 ,5000 years.
The calculation result shows for the 100 year a 4369 m3/Sec maximum probable flood
The May 22, 1969 flood, which was observed 1550 m3/Sec, as a maximum flood during the period of ,

14. Result (Cont) - Future water Demands and Resources
This Graph shows the estimated of the water supply for the future demands with a high population growth rate scenario in Faizabad City, which is increase the Shortages of water for the Irrigations land.
Faizabad city
Proposed Dam “Shurabak”
Proposed Dam “Qala-i-Mamay”

15. An average of about 32% rainfall losses are showing in this Basin
Result (Cont) - Rainfall Loss with Effective Rainfall Rate & direct runoff coefficient analysis
An average of about 32% rainfall losses are showing in this Basin
An average of approximately 50 % water loss
showing an annual average of around 0.53 mm effective rainfall and a total of about mm
503.
136
473
300.
237
401
12.8
313
257
467
379
466
144 30
294
202
268 28
165 54
shows a large different direct runoff coefficient because of very rare rainfall on peak discharge timing in the dry season

16. Result (Cont) - Mean Annual Runoff & River Flow Regime analysis of Panj-e-Amu River Basin
The mean annual runoff capacity is estimated 40 BCM (Billion Cubic Meter) per year
The spring/summer high‐water flow contributes around 79% of the total annual flow discharged into the Basin.
The Khojaghar data presented 77%
while Faizabad covered about 82%

17. Conclusion
The Integrated Flood Analysis System model (IFAS) result was not satisfactory with measured and observed data in Panj-e-Amu Basin.
The input data of Ground Surface-Based rainfall could improve the flood runoff inflow of the IFAS simulation.
Flood peaks in the Panj-e-Amu River Basin is more influenced by snow melting while the air temperature is increasing during the summer in the mountainous area.
The Water balance method is more suitable in the estimation of Rainfall losses.
Panj-e-Amu River Basin has great ability for prospective and comprehensive planning.

18. Recommendations
More accurate adequate validation data of the basin and extension of Hydro meteorological networks in upstream are required for the Future sustainability and Planning.
For a comprehensive and sustainable watershed design in the future of Panj-e-Amu, the key association elements, including geological data, real demography ,people life style, a more accurate assessment of land cover, land use , soil type , geo-morphology development is required.
Its important to modify parameters of IFAS to be appropriate with the particular river basin.

19. Thanks For Your Attention
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