1. U.S. Agriculture and the Emerging Bioeconomy Dr. Keith Collins Chief Economist United States Department of Agriculture

2. Overview Market Potential for Renewable Fuels Impacts on Agriculture Facilitating Supply and Demand Policy Challenges

3. Recent Changes 1996200020052006 Billions of gallons Ethanol1.01.63.95.0 Gasoline121130140141 Ethanol Share0.8%1.2%2.8%3.5%

4. Recent Changes 1996200020052006 Billions of gallons Ethanol1.01.63.95.0 Gasoline121130140141 Ethanol Share0.8%1.2%2.8%3.5% Ethanol‘96 - 064.0 Gasoline‘96 - 0620.0 Share Met By Ethanol:20%

5. Recent Changes 1996200020052006 Billions of gallons Ethanol1.01.63.95.0 Gasoline121130140141 Ethanol Share0.8%1.2%2.8%3.5% Ethanol‘96 - 064.0‘00-063.4 Gasoline‘96 - 0620.0‘00-0611.0 Share Met By Ethanol:20%31%

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9. Key to the Future: Agricultural Output

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13. Key to the Future: Cellulosics CornCellulosics Capital Costs$1.25-$1.50/gal$4.30-$5.50/gal Ethanol Yield98 gal/ton70-80 gal/ton Conversion Process SimpleComplex Enzyme Cost$0.03/gal$0.30-$0.50/gal Alcohol Content14-20%4% Transport CostsLowHigh

14. Policy Challenges Market Prices Efficiently Allocate Resources …Unless There Are Market Failures (Externalities) Direct Market Intervention (Taxes, RFS) Indirect Intervention (Loan Guarantees, Research)

15. Conclusions Great Economic Opportunity Attack the Challenges Pursue Public-Private Partnerships Look Beyond Our Borders