1. Drought Alert System for the Upper Trinity River Basin NWS/TVA Meeting October 24, 2006 Ben Weiger, Hydrologic Services Branch National Weather Service Southern Region 817-978-1100, ext. 118 ben.weiger@noaa.gov

2. National Drought Preparedness Act of 2005 The National Drought Preparedness Act of 2005 Senators Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) and Max Baucus (D-Mont.) introduced S 802, the "National Drought Preparedness Act of 2005", on April 14, 2005. A companion bill, HR 1386, was introduced in the House by Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) Rep. Dennis Rehberg (R- Mont.), Rep. Tom Osborne (R-Neb.) and Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D- So.Dak.). The bills are similar to legislation introduced in the 107th and 108th Congresses. Senators Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) and Max Baucus (D-Mont.) introduced S 802, the "National Drought Preparedness Act of 2005", on April 14, 2005. A companion bill, HR 1386, was introduced in the House by Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) Rep. Dennis Rehberg (R- Mont.), Rep. Tom Osborne (R-Neb.) and Rep. Stephanie Herseth (D- So.Dak.). The bills are similar to legislation introduced in the 107th and 108th Congresses. The effect of the bill would be to put in place a comprehensive national drought policy that statutorily authorizes a lead federal agency for drought, and delineates the roles and responsibilities for coordinating and integrating federal assistance for droughts. It would move the country away from the costly, ad-hoc, response-oriented approach to drought, and move us toward a proactive, preparedness approach, similar to what we have for other natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes. The effect of the bill would be to put in place a comprehensive national drought policy that statutorily authorizes a lead federal agency for drought, and delineates the roles and responsibilities for coordinating and integrating federal assistance for droughts. It would move the country away from the costly, ad-hoc, response-oriented approach to drought, and move us toward a proactive, preparedness approach, similar to what we have for other natural disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes.

3. National Integrated Drought Information System Recognition of droughts in a timely manner is dependent on our ability to monitor and forecast the diverse physical indicators of drought, as well as relevant economic, social and environmental impacts. NIDIS will coordinate and integrate a variety of observations, analysis techniques and forecasting methods in a system that will support drought assessment and decision-making at the lowest geopolitical level possible. The tools will allow users to access, transform and display basic data and forecasts across a range of spatial and temporal scales most suited to their individual needs. Recognition of droughts in a timely manner is dependent on our ability to monitor and forecast the diverse physical indicators of drought, as well as relevant economic, social and environmental impacts. NIDIS will coordinate and integrate a variety of observations, analysis techniques and forecasting methods in a system that will support drought assessment and decision-making at the lowest geopolitical level possible. The tools will allow users to access, transform and display basic data and forecasts across a range of spatial and temporal scales most suited to their individual needs.

4. Low Flow Information Project Objective To provide stakeholders with easy access to low water information (impacts, threshold flows/water levels) to assist with situational awareness, and drought monitoring and contingency planning. To provide stakeholders with easy access to low water information (impacts, threshold flows/water levels) to assist with situational awareness, and drought monitoring and contingency planning.

5. Implementation Strategy Partner with the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) to collect low water information from local, state, and federal agencies. Partner with the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) to collect low water information from local, state, and federal agencies. Identify other potential sources of funding to support the project (state agency received hazard mitigation grant funds for project). Identify other potential sources of funding to support the project (state agency received hazard mitigation grant funds for project). Develop NWS and state database schema to store low water information. Develop NWS and state database schema to store low water information. Populate National Weather Service hydrologic database with low water information. Share low water information with the state. Populate National Weather Service hydrologic database with low water information. Share low water information with the state. Submit requirements to display low water information on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Web Page. Submit requirements to display low water information on the NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) Web Page. Develop state of TX web server that will provide customers with easy access to low water information. Develop state of TX web server that will provide customers with easy access to low water information. Demonstrate project in the upper Trinity River Basin. Demonstrate project in the upper Trinity River Basin.

6. Benefits Enhanced situational awareness capability for local/state/federal agencies involved with drought monitoring and decision making. Enhanced situational awareness capability for local/state/federal agencies involved with drought monitoring and decision making. People better informed about the impacts of low water conditions on the economy and their personal lives. People better informed about the impacts of low water conditions on the economy and their personal lives. People more likely to abide with voluntary/mandatory water restrictions if they are educated/aware of the drought impacts. People more likely to abide with voluntary/mandatory water restrictions if they are educated/aware of the drought impacts. Updated local/state/federal drought contingency plans save money for the economy. Updated local/state/federal drought contingency plans save money for the economy.

7. Upper Mississippi (2004) and North Platte (2005) river basins; Upper Missouri Basin underway (2006) 38 NWS AHPS forecast sites analyzed Upper Mississippi River Basin (MN) – 21 forecast points North Plate River Basin (CO, WY, and NE) – 17 points Conducted internet and literature reviews Also collected information on potential low flow impacts from 115 federal, state, and local water experts Completed Low Flow Project Studies by the NDMC

8. Experts Were Asked to Provide Information on: The impacts of low river levels The stage/flow at which impacts occur Which AHPS site(s) best reflect the impacts Other factors that affect particular impacts/locations Key Findings 1. Several potential impacts identified loss of municipal, industrial, and agricultural water activation of water rights regulation procedures activation of state and local drought response plans reduced recreational opportunities hydropower losses dredging to maintain navigation fish and wildlife losses exposure of infrastructure increased effluent testing (NPDES)

9. Flow (cfs) Stage (ft) Impacts Timing/Other Consideration s Information Sources 40 Irrigation releases for crops become sporadic; some fields may not receive full allotment of water Late summer Brian Artery, District Manager, Platte County Conservation District 20 Recreation opportunities very limited, boat ramps at Greyrocks Reservoir are likely to be inaccessible Late summer 10 Irrigation releases cease; crops will require alternative irrigation water supply Late summer 10 Conditions are not favorable for aquatic life; fish and other aquatic organisms begin to die Late summer 10 Conditions are not favorable for livestock and wildlife water, livestock producers must implement alternative livestock water supply Late summer Fort Laramie Forecast Point, Wyoming

10. Authorities could not describe at what stage/flow impacts at some sites would occur. Ex) “Our wells are affected by river flows but I don’t know exactly how much.” Ex) “Fish and wildlife are affected by low flows but we haven’t determined minimum flow requirements.” More research is needed in such cases to better understand low-flow vulnerabilities

11. Developing a better understanding of low water impacts at the local level will provide more detailed information for water resources planning applications at all levels of government Conclusion of Case Studies…

12. Trinity River Basin Low Water Information Project Required Sites ( 20 ) JAKT2 West Fork Trinity River near Jacksboro EAMT2 West Fork Trinity River at Eagle Mountain Reservoir above Fort Worth FLWT2 West Fork Trinity River at Lake Worth above Fort Worth BNBT2 Clear Fork Trinity River at Benbrook Lake near Benbrook FWHT2 Clear Fork Trinity River at Fort Worth FWOT2 West Fork Trinity River at Fort Worth LART2 Village Creek at Lake Arlington near Arlington GPRT2 West Fork Trinity River at Grand Prairie JPLT2 Mountain Creek at Joe Pool Lake near Duncanville GPAT2 Mountain Creek at Grand Prairie GLLT2 Elm Fork Trinity River at Gainesville RRLT2 Elm Fork Trinity River at Ray Roberts Lake near Pilot Point LEWT2 Elm Fork Trinity River at Lewisville Lake near Lewisville GPVT2 Denton Creek at Grapevine Lake near Grapevine BPRT2 West Fork Trinity River at Bridgeport Reservoir above Bridgeport DALT2 Trinity River at Dallas LVNT2 East Fork Trinity River at Lavon Lake near Lavon FRHT2 East Fork Trinity River at Lake Ray Hubbard near Forney TRNT2 Cedar Creek at Cedar Creek Reservoir near Trinidad FFLT2 Richland Chambers Reservoir near Kerens

13. Optional Sites ( 10 ) BRPT2 Big Sandy Creek near Bridgeport BOYT2 West Fork Trinity River near Boyd WEAT2 Clear Fork Trinity River near Weatherford GLLT2 Elm Fork Trinity River at Gainesville SGET2 Clear Creek near Sanger EFLT2 Elm Fork Trinity River near Lewisville DCJT2 Denton Creek near Justin CART2 Elm Fork Trinity River near Carrollton BVWT2 Sister Grove Creek near Blue Ridge MCKT2 East Fork Trinity River at McKinney Trinity River Basin Low Water Information Project

14. Potential Texas Contacts NDMC staff will be contacting Texas water experts in 2007, such as: Community water managers near AHPS points Texas Drought Preparedness Council members Trinity River Authority United States Geological Survey US Army Corp of Engineers US Bureau of Reclamation Tarrant Regional Water District They will be asked to help identify potential low-flow related impacts that can be linked to river flow/stages at NWS AHPS points.

15. Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service http://www.weather.gov/ahps/

16. Example Future AHPS Hydrograph with Low Water Threshold Information

17. Figure 4. An example of a 90-day streamflow outlook for low water. The values along the x axis show the probability of reaching a particular flow (y axis). The brown zone at the bottom of the graph shows the critical level for this forecast point at which low water impacts begin to take effect. CS = conditional simulation; HS = historical simulation. North Central River Forecast Center

18. NWS Hydrometeorological Web Pages NWS hydrology web pages NWS hydrology web pages o www.srh.weather.gov (click on River Forecast Center tab) www.srh.weather.gov o www.srh.noaa.gov/ahps (AHPS web page) www.srh.noaa.gov/ahps o www.weather.gov/ahps (AHPS web page) www.weather.gov/ahps o http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php (experimental nationwide precipitation information service) http://www.srh.noaa.gov/rfcshare/precip_analysis_new.php o http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ (radar data) http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/