1. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1 Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles? 05/22/06 WORKING DRAFT Name???

2. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2 The Current Task Phase IPhase II Extent of Current Activity

3. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3 The Current Task Current Phase I Focus –“Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles?” (Tasks A, B, C-) Future Phase I Focus –Develop a capability that provides a risk analysis for PA on the use of rifles versus shotguns and muzzleloading firearms –Make recommendations of alternative actions to improve hunting safety in populated area (Tasks C+, D, and E) Future Phase II –Provide information and recommendations to consider on whether “Special Regulations Areas” should be expanded in Pennsylvania

4. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4 Timeline Will only proceed with Task D and E and Phase II with your permission Today

5. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5 PGC Regulations Arms & Ammunition General Statewide Seasons: 1) Manually operated centerfire rifles, handguns and shotguns with all lead bullet or ball, or a bullet designed to expand on impact; 2) muzzleloading long guns 44-caliber or larger; and 3) long, recurve, compound or crossbows with broadheads of cutting-edge design. Buckshot is illegal, except in Southeast Special Regulations Area. Archery Seasons: Long, recurve and compound bows with broadheads of cutting-edge design. Crossbows permitted for deer in WMUs 2B, 5C and 5D. Persons hunting deer in the archery seasons may not possess a firearm of any type. Flintlock Muzzleloader Season: Flintlock ignition, single-barrel long gun, 44-caliber or larger, using single projectile ammunition. Iron, open.V. or notch sights only. Fiber optic inserts permitted. Crossbows permitted, but users must have a muzzleloader stamp. October Antlerless Muzzleloader Season: Any muzzleloader long gun with flintlock, percussion or in-line ignition, 44-caliber or larger. Scope sights permitted. Crossbows permitted, but users must have a muzzleloader stamp. Special Regulations Areas: (All of Allegheny County in western Pennsylvania and all of Bucks, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia counties in the southeast): Muzzleloading long guns 44-caliber or larger, bows and arrows, manual or autoloading shotguns.410 or larger using slugs and 20-gauge or larger using buckshot. Buckshot may not be used in Allegheny County. Only bows and arrows are permitted in Philadelphia County. Crossbows with a draw weight of at least 125 pounds, but not more than 200 pounds may be used during the regular firearms deer seasons, including the antlerless deer season Dec. 26-Jan. 14, in WMU 2B & and Dec. 12-23 & Dec. 26-Jan. 28 in WMUs 5C & 5D centerfire rifles, handguns and shotguns with all lead bullet or ball muzzleloading long guns 44-caliber Any muzzleloader long gun with flintlock, percussion or in-line ignition, 44-caliber or larger

6. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 6 Approach and Limitations Only deer-related incidents Used representative high-end systems –.30-06, 150 grain soft point projectile, muzzle velocity approximately 2910 fps – Manual or autoloading shotgun, 12 gauge sabot.50 caliber 385 grain HP semi-spitzer, muzzle velocity approximately 1900 fps – Muzzleloading long gun (Example CVA Kodiak.50 Caliber 209 Magnum Rifle).50 caliber, 348 gr. CVA PowerBelt Bullet, 90 gr. Hodgdon Triple Seven FFFG, muzzle velocity approximately 1595 fps

7. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 7 Incident Data, 1997 – 2005+ Street, City County Name Township Zip Code Incident Date Rural/Urban (Description) Type of Property Damaged Property (Description) Firearm Type (Description) Projectile Population Density (Description) Grounding in the Facts

8. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 8 Limitations Incident Data Not exact location of the incident Vehicle locations are of owner Some missing data Some fields are estimates Sample size

9. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 9 Incidents 464 Incidents 98 Not Used (Non-deer hunting, etc) 366 Incidents Used in County Level Analysis –No rifle incidents in Special Regulations Areas –19% in Special Regulations Areas –79% in rural areas –75% are residential structures –65% in population density less that 200 people/sq mile 313 Address Matches (85%)

10. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10 Non-Address Match Incidents Legend Counties Non-Address Matches 0 1. 2 2 - 4 4 - 6 Special Regulations Areas

11. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11 Incidents Legend Counties Total Incidents (366 Incidents) 0 - 2 3 - 5 6 - 9 10 - 16 17 - 23 Incidents Firearm Type (313 Incidents) Muzzleloader Pistol Rifle Shotgun Unknown Special Regulations Areas

12. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 12 Deer Harvest Harvests are estimates 2005 estimates not available

13. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13 Legend Counties Incidents Firearm Type Muzzleloader Pistol Rifle Shotgun Unknown Special Regulations Areas 2nd Order Hot Spots 1st Order Hot Spots Hotspot Analysis Note: Hotspot analysis was performed using a program called CrimeStat I, developed for the National Institute of Justice

14. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14 2 nd Order Hotspots in: –Adams, York, and Cumberland Counties –Chester*, Montgomery*, Berks, Bucks*, Lehigh, and Northampton Counties (* Special Regulations Area) Hotspot Analysis

15. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15 Legend Risk Incidents/Deer Harvest 0.000000 - 0.439920 0.439921 - 1.098770 1.098771 - 2.064850 2.064851 - 4.125249 4.125250 - 8.577337 Incidents Firearm Type Muzzleloader Pistol Rifle Shotgun Unknown Special Regulations Areas Rate Map of Incidents vs. Deer Harvest Reference: Smoothing & Excess Risk Algorithms Used in GeoDa: Anselin, L., Y. W. Kim and I. Syabri. Web-Based Analytical Tools for the Exploration of Spatial Data Journal of Geographical Systems (forthcoming). For more details on EB smoother, also see Bailey-Gatrell (1995) (pp. 303-308). Compares the actual county incident rate to the predicted incident rate that would be observed in the county

16. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16 Legend Risk Incidents/Population 0.000000 - 0.481598 0.481599 - 1.123726 1.123727 - 1.868351 1.868352 - 3.734348 3.734349 - 8.056151 Incidents Firearm Type Muzzleloader Pistol Rifle Shotgun Unknown Special Regulations Areas Rate Map of Incidents vs. Population Need to carefully consider how to define risk: –Incidents vs. Deer Harvest –Incidents vs. Population

17. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17 Site Visits

18. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 18 Address Matching The address does not represent the actual location of the structure

19. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19 | 763 | | | COLEMAN | RD | | 17325

20. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20 | 431 | S | | YORK | RD | | 17019

21. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21 | 260 | W | | BARRENS VALLEY | RD | | 17019

22. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 22 | 331 | | | FRANKLIN CHURCH | RD | | 17019

23. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23 | 323 | | | BERMUDIAN CREEK | RD | | 17316

24. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24 | 2 | | | TWO CHURCHES | RD | | 17316

25. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25 | 355 | | | ROCK VALLEY | RD | | 17304

26. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 26 | 687 | | | QUAKER CHURCH | RD | | 17372

27. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 27 | 101 | | | HUNTERSTOWN HAMPTON | RD | | 17325

28. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 28 Preliminary Analysis of the Facts 366 incidents is minimal for an analysis There are hot spots of incidents inside and outside Special Regulations Areas Need to define risk An analysis of incidents within a smaller geographic unit is desirable to reduce the spatial variation of factors across counties Improving data is desirable –Using and X-Y coordinate to locate incidents –Strike forensics –Estimated values (deer harvest)

29. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 29 Ballistics as Represented in the 1998 Report

30. 30 Physics: Ballistic Analysis on the Risk of Rifles versus Shotguns and Muzzleloaders Aeroballistics Division, AETC Picatinny Arsenal, NJ

31. 31 Representative Ammunition Rifle: 30-06 Springfield (7.62mmx63mm) soft point  Mass = 150 grains, MV = 2910 fps Shotgun: 12 gauge sabot.50 caliber HP semi-spitzer  Mass = 385 grains, MV = 1900 fps Muzzleloader:.50 caliber CVA Powerbelt  Mass = 348 grains, MV = 1595 fps

32. 32 Approach Comparison of flight ballistics to examine two areas  Initial Impact Distance  Subsequent Ricochet Distance

33. 33 Initial Conditions For the shotgun and muzzleloader ammunition, drag curves for the complete Mach number flight regime were generated using Aerodynamic prediction codes Shooter and target height was set at 3 feet Firing elevations were varied for a set of conditions Firing Elevation simulated (degrees) Firing ConditionFeet Above a Standing Deer at a Range of 100 Yards 35 (max range)Errant shot210 ft 10High error in aiming53 ft 5Moderate error in aiming26 ft ~0Aiming at target0 ft

34. 34 Ricochet Distance Once initial trajectories are computed, ricochet trajectories are simulated based on established ricochet databases from comparable military ammunitions Trajectory Plots are provided with both initial and maximum ricochet distances

35. 35 Ricochet Example

36. 36 Trajectories for 35° Firing Elevation No ricochets after impact

37. 37 Maximum Ranges No Ricochet Firing Elevation at 35 degrees AmmunitionInitial Impact Distance (ft) Ricochet Distance (ft) Difference Distance (ft) % Less than Rifle Rifle (.30-06 150 grains)13926 0InitialRicochet Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains)10378 025% Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains)9197 034%

38. 38 Trajectories for 10° Firing Elevation

39. 39 10 o Elevation with Ricochet Band Thickness is Ricochet Firing Elevation at 10 degrees AmmunitionInitial Impact Distance (ft) Ricochet Distance (ft) Difference Distance (ft) % Less than Rifle Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 1000410706702 InitialRicochet Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 71638112949 28%24% Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 62477160913 38%33%

40. 40 Trajectories for 5° Firing Elevation

41. 41 5 o Elevation with Ricochet Band Thickness is Ricochet Firing Elevation at 5 degrees AmmunitionInitial Impact Distance (ft) Ricochet Distance (ft) Difference Distance (ft) % Less than Rifle Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 750487431239 InitialRicochet Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 511868651747 32%21% Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 436760101643 42%31%

42. 42 Trajectories for 0° Firing Elevation

43. 43 0 o Elevation with Ricochet Band Thickness is the Ricochet Firing Elevation at ~0 degrees AmmunitionInitial Impact Distance (ft) Ricochet Distance (ft) Difference Distance (ft) % Less than Rifle Rifle (.30-06 150 grains) 140848353427 InitialRicochet Shotgun (.50 cal 385 grains) 84052054365 40%-8% Muzzleloader (.50 cal 348 grains) 68644983812 51%7%

44. 44 Findings Initial impact distance differences between rifle and shotgun (muzzleloader) become greater with decreasing firing elevation However, ricochet distance differences between rifle and shotgun (muzzleloader) become less with decreasing firing elevation Ricochet distance is a more realistic gauge for comparing overall range safety Moderate (5 o ) to high (10 o ) aiming error distance comparisons provide appropriate levels for qualifying risk

45. 45 Findings (cont’d) Although shotguns and muzzleloaders still produce shorter impact distances versus rifles, the differences are between 20 to 25 percent less than rifle In terms of area, the differences are between 40 to 50 percent

46. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 46 Finding “Are shotguns and muzzleloaders less risky than centerfire rifles?” –Yes, but… the margin of safety is much less than previously assumed reducing ricochets is essential when using shotguns as a safety management tool 1998 2006 Max Range 10 Degrees w/ Ricochet 5 Degrees w/ Ricochet 0 Degrees w/ Ricochet Rifle (.30-06)24454 ac13986 ac8266 ac5512 ac847 ac Shotgun (12 ga.)1030 ac7767 ac4745 ac3398 ac1373 ac Difference23424 ac6219 ac3520 ac2113 ac-527 ac 1998 2006 Max Range 10 Degrees No Ricochet 5 Degrees No Ricochet 0 Degrees No Ricochet Rifle (.30-06)24454 ac13986 ac7217 ac4061 ac1408 ac Shotgun (12 ga.)1030 ac7767 ac3700 ac5118 ac840 ac Difference23424 ac6219 ac3517 ac2172 ac92 ac

47. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 47 Recommendations Based on this analysis, complete the Request for Information (RFI) to identify new technologies that will improve deer hunting safety Perform ballistics analysis with the results from the RFI Apply geographic analysis using the appropriate HR61 factors with new ballistics and technology to determine where to use safety management tool Make suggestions to improve incident data collection for the 2006 season

48. Copyright © 2006, MountainTop Technologies, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 48 Closing Thought “if it is indeed true that the non-hunting public holds the unfounded perception that the 12 gauge rifled shotgun/rifle is safer than center fire rifles using expanding spitzer bullets, then it behooves the Commission to educate this non-shooting population.” John C. Homsher Strausburg, PA September 10, 1997