1. 1 Dr. Florence Eid Chief Economist Arabia Monitor

3. Outline Going global: A boon for MENA from rise of emerging giants 3 A Framework for MENA: Where is the region headed? Re-stacking the cards: MENA investment heat-map

4. Reform on the back of a revolution Constitutional Monarchies in the making Top-down gradual reform Unknown outcomes Sub-optimal Democracies 5 Political Country Groupings Define MENA Political map of the Arab World today 4

5. Outline 5 A Framework for MENA: Where is the region headed? Re-stacking the cards: MENA investment heat-map

6. 3 Economic Groupings Define MENA 1 Re-stacking the cards: Interest in MENA has not ebbed 6 1 Arabia Monitor; IMF. *Libya figure from negative base conditional on oil exports resuming in 2014, could be revised down. Morocco 3.8% Algeria 3.7% Tunisia 3.7% Libya 25.5%* Egypt 2.8% Lebanon 1.5% Jordan 3% Syria … Iraq 6.3% KSA 4.4% Kuwait 2.6% Yemen 3.4% Oman 3.4% UAE 3.9% Qatar 5% Bahrain 3.3%

7. 140 15.3 7 Figure 1 - Planned Infrastructure Investments (USD B) 1 Sizing up the infrastructure opportunity: 3 market types 1 Arabia Monitor; National Development Plans. Figures only approximate estimations based on proposed allocations. Algeria (2009-2014); Libya (2013-2023); Egypt (current PPP projects planned); Iraq (2010-2014); Saudi Arabia (2011-2014); Kuwait (2010-2020); Qatar (2013-2018); UAE (2008-2016); Oman (2011-2015). 2 Arabia Monitor; IMF. Figure 2 – North Africa Forecasted Total Investment (% GDP) 2

8. 8 Infrastructure spend per capita through 2018 (USD) 1 Investment pipeline outpacing EMs 1 Arabia Monitor; Goldman Sachs: “Building the World”, World Bank.

9. Outline Going global: A boon for MENA from rise of emerging giants 9 A Framework for MENA: Where is the region headed? Re-stacking the cards: MENA investment heat-map

10. Exposure to Europe: Disproportionate in North Africa… 1 Arabia Monitor; Eurostat. 10 MENA Exports to EU (% total) 1

11. Red: Misc. Manufactured Goods Green: Agricultural Products Blue: Textile Products From ASEAN Arabia Monitor; DOTS; UNCTAD. The GCC imports its food, machinery and clothing. GCC textile imports from ASEAN: ~USD 1.1B; Maghreb textile exports to EU: ~USD 5B; Maghreb textile exports to GCC: negligible. GCC global food imports: ~USD 25B. Maghreb food exports to EU: ~USD 3B. Maghreb food exports to GCC: negligible. 11 Much of what the GCC imports is what NA exports to Europe

12. 1 Arabia Monitor, International Telecommunications Union A fillip from China’s voracious appetite? 12 1 Arabia Monitor; UNCTAD. Figure 1 – China Total Food Imports (USD B) 1 Figure 2 – Tunisia & Morocco Food Exports 1

13. Leveraging sub-Saharan Africa’s growth 1 Arabia Monitor; Dubai Chamber of Commerce; EIU, “Africa Global Business Forum 2013”. 13 UAE/SSA main bilateral trade and investment 1

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