1. Social Trends in Australia and implications for church life Anglican Apostolic Assemblies of God Baptist Brethren Catholic Christian Missionary Alliance Christian City Church COC Australia Congregational CRC Churches International Church of the Nazarene Churches of Christ Four Square Gospel Lutheran Presbyterian Christian Reformed Churches Salvation Army Seventh-day Adventist Uniting Church Vineyard Fellowship Worldwide Church of God and Independent congregations, House churches and other Christian communites. National Church Life Survey 400 000 attenders 7000 local churches 10 000 leaders More than 22 denominations and movements including: NCLS Research www.ncls.org.au

2. Social Trends in Australia and implications for church life NCLS Research

3. six categories

4. population structure

5. one key trend: Australia’s population is ageing as it is growing

6. evidence?

7. 1921 Source: ABS 2008a

8. 1931 Source: ABS 2008a

9. 1941 Source: ABS 2008a

10. 1951 Source: ABS 2008a

11. 1961 Source: ABS 2008a

12. 1971 Source: ABS 2008a

13. 1981 Source: ABS 2008a

14. 1991 Source: ABS 2008a

15. 2001 Source: ABS 2008a

16. 2011 (projected) Source: ABS 2008b

17. 2021 (projected) Source: ABS 2008b

18. 2031 (projected) Source: ABS 2008b

19. 2041 (projected) Source: ABS 2008b

20. 2051 (projected) Source: ABS 2008b

21. implications The elderly will make up an increasing proportion of the population BUT there will still be a numeric increase in the number of children and adults in their middle years

22. education

23. one key trend: Australia’s population is increasingly well educated

24. evidence?

25. education by generation 1896-1926 “Oldest Generation” 1927-19461947-19661967-1986 “Lucky Generation”“Baby Boomers”“Generation X and Y” Over 8060-7940-5920-39 YOB ABS label 2006 age Source: ABS 2009

26. implications Increasingly well educated ministry staff will need to be alert to needs of less educated aged congregations Changing needs and expectations placed on teaching and learning situations from younger generations

27. employment and income

28. one key trend: Australian women are working more

29. evidence? 53% of all women 15+ employed in 2006 (up from 40% in 1976) Small rise in women working full-time (29% up from 26% in 1976) but big rise in part-time employment: 24% of all women work part-time (up from 14% in 1976)

30. Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007 time use by life cycle stage

31. Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007 time use by life cycle stage

32. Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007 time use by life cycle stage

33. Source: HILDA 2004 via AIFS 2007 time use by life cycle stage Mums with kids under 5 work an AVERAGE of over 70 hours per week

34. implications Young mums are working really hard Do you target women as the volunteers with ‘available time’? Young dads spend lots of time at work Does church contribute to quality family time?

35. households and families

36. one key trend: Families are forming and re-forming increasingly flexibly

37. evidence?

38. families with children Only two thirds of all children live in a ‘traditional’ family Source: ABS 2006a

39. Decline in marriage rates and rise in co-habitation rates 76% of all marriages in 2006 were preceded by co-habitation Nearly 40% of all co-habitations begun since 1990 end in separation within 5 years (compared to approx. 9% of marriages in the same period) Overall decline in the proportion of adults living with a partner Dramatic increase in ex-nuptial births: 33% of all children in 2006 (up from 3-4% in the 1960s) BUT proportion of birth certificates with father’s name increased from 58% in 1980 to 90% in 2006 (related to co- habitation) Source: AIFS 2008

40. implications Activities will need to be open to non-traditional family structures Welcoming people with non-traditional families into church will be an increasingly significant social issue Stable Christian marriages and families can provide valuable support networks and role models

41. housing

42. one key trend: New arrivals in your local area are most likely to be from other parts of your state

43. evidence?

44. residential mobility after 5 years Same address Same local area Same state Different state Overseas 51% 11% 20% 4% 8% Not stated: 6% At least three of every ten people in our communities has arrived in the last five years from outside the local area. Source: ABS 2006a

45. implications Opportunities to welcome Opportunities to provide support and local knowledge

46. culture and religion

47. two key trends: There is an increasing diversity of source countries in migration to Australia There has been a massive rise in the number of Australians selecting ‘no religion’ on their Census forms

48. evidence?

49. country of birth 1996 Source: ABS 2008a

50. country of birth 1997 Source: ABS 2008a

51. country of birth 1998 Source: ABS 2008a

52. country of birth 1999 Source: ABS 2008a

53. country of birth 2000 Source: ABS 2008a

54. country of birth 2001 Source: ABS 2008a

55. country of birth 2002 Source: ABS 2008a

56. country of birth 2003 Source: ABS 2008c

57. country of birth 2004 Source: ABS 2008c

58. country of birth 2005 Source: ABS 2008a

59. country of birth 2006 Source: ABS 2008a

60. country of birth 2007 Source: ABS 2008a

61. It’s not the same everywhere!

62. religious affiliation Source: ABS 2006b

63. religious affiliation Source: ABS 2006b

64. implications Diversity makes it increasingly problematic to try to reach ethnic groups on-by-one Increasing numbers of unchurched white Australians who feel no religious affiliation There’s really only very small numbers of people following non-Christian religions in Australia

65. questions?

66. references Australian Bureau of Statistics (2006a) Australian Basic Community Profile, Catalogue number 2001.0; www.abs.gov.auwww.abs.gov.au Australian Bureau of Statistics (2006b) Year Book Australia, Catalogue number 1301.0; www.abs.gov.au www.abs.gov.au Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008a) Australian Historical Population Statistics, Catalogue number 3105.0.65.001; www.abs.gov.auwww.abs.gov.au Australian Bureau of Statistics (2008b) Population Projections, Australia, Catalogue number 3222.0 ; www.abs.gov.auwww.abs.gov.au Australian Bureau of Statistics (2009) A Picture of the Nation, Catalogue number 2070.0; www.abs.gov.au www.abs.gov.au Australian Institute of Family Studies (2007) A snapshot of how Australian families spend their time; www.aifs.gov.auwww.aifs.gov.au Australian Institute of Family Studies (2008) Snapshots of family relationships; www.aifs.gov.auwww.aifs.gov.au

67. Thank you NCLS Research Capital City Visits, Winter 2009 contact: info@ncls.org.au or (02) 8267 4394info@ncls.org.au