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Fed Cattle Outlook Great Plains and Midwest Outlook Conference Louisville, KY August 13, 2015 David P. Anderson Professor and Extension Economist.

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Presentation on theme: "Fed Cattle Outlook Great Plains and Midwest Outlook Conference Louisville, KY August 13, 2015 David P. Anderson Professor and Extension Economist."— Presentation transcript:

1 Fed Cattle Outlook Great Plains and Midwest Outlook Conference Louisville, KY August 13, 2015 David P. Anderson Professor and Extension Economist

2 Overview Squeeze Structure Marketing Outlook Ouch!

3 Squeeze

4 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

5

6 Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

7 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

8 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

9 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

10 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

11 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

12 Squeeze Tight Supplies of Feeders Overcapacity –Higher feeder prices Pressure on Fed Prices –Hides and offals –Seasonality Lower Feed Prices

13 Structure

14

15 Cattle on Feed

16 Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

17 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

18 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

19 Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

20 Marketing

21 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

22 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

23 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

24 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

25 Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

26 Marketing Large Shift to Formula Pricing –Thinner markets Away From Negotiated Cash Classic Price Discovery Issues

27 11-13007-800Feed-Fed 2013125.88150.6924.81 2014 I146.34171.4525.11 II147.82189.7241.90 III158.49217.9559.46 IV165.59229.6364.04 2015 I162.43209.4246.99 II158.11222.3164.20 III149-152212-21462 IV154-159203-20849 2016 I154-158202-20948 II152-158206-21454 III146-150200-20854 IV149-159195-20546 Prices for 2013-2016 Texas Combined Auction for 5-600 and 7-800

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