1. Transportation leadership you can trust. presented to TRB 11 th Conference on Transportation Planning Applications presented by Dan Goldfarb, P.E. Cambridge Systematics, Inc. May 2007 A Practical Approach for Post-Processing Managed Lane Facilities

2. 1 ETL Lanes Electronic Toll Lanes Tool for Managing Demand Price to Keep Traffic Moving Guide for HOT Lane Development, FHWA,

3. 2 ETL Projects Maryland State Highway Administration Projects Inter-County Connector (ICC) Capital Beltway (I-495/I-95) I-270 from I-70 to I-370 Western Mobility I-495 to I-270 Role - Developed Travel Demand Forecast

4. 3 ETL Forecast Issues Develop Year 2030 Forecast for the ICC Toll Facility Variable Tolls to Manage Demand Guarantee Traffic Flow Reasonable LOS Threshold LOS “C” to LOS “D” conditions – 1800 pcphpl 6% HV, Rolling Terrain – 1650 vph Open Process for EIS

5. 4 Travel Demand Model MWCOG V2.1C Travel Demand Forecast Model Validated Study Corridor Base year 2000 No-Build Year 2030 Tolls ― Travel Time Penalty Assignment

6. 5 V2.1C Toll Application Improvements Convert Toll Cost to Time Equivalent Trip Distribution 4 Income Groups Work & Non- Work Purposes Mode Choice Average Cost by Purpose Vary Peak & Off- Peak Per Person Cost for HOV Assignment Vehicle Cost Vary Peak & Off-Peak Source: MWCOG V2.1C User’s Guide & Technical Memorandum Oct-21-2003

7. 6 Time & Cost Equivalents By Income Level & Purpose Source: MWCOG User’s Guide V2.1D #50 Model

8. 7 Time & Cost Equivalents By Vehicle & Time Period Source: MWCOG User’s Guide V2.1D #50 Model

9. 8 Toll Cost & Time Vehicle PeakOff-Peak (minutes) Airport Auto4.543.40 Single Occupant Auto9.259.93 Multi Occupant Auto11.6111.56 Truck23.2224.90 3.45 miles 5.62 miles Income Group PeakOff-Peak Work Non Work Non Work (minutes) inc 138.2854.7828.7141.09 inc 214.1520.1410.6115.10 inc 38.3411.976.268.98 inc 44.175.993.134.49

10. 9 Travel Demand Forecast Model Assignment Large Geographic Area Coarse Network Macro-level Assignment

11. 10 Refinement of The Travel Demand Model Output Post-Process Applied at the link level Procedures from NCHRP-255 “Link Smoothing” Benefits Raw Assignment Capital Beltway RMSE 14% Link Refinement Capital Beltway RMSE 6% Annual Growth Factor RMSE 25%

12. 11 Link Refinement Part 1 – Model Bias Ratio Adjustment Difference Adjustment Part 2 – Redistribution Count factor Capacity Factor

13. 12 ETL — Managed Facility Redistribution Problem Capacity Based Constraints: → Reflect Managed Nature of Facility → Reflect the Results of Model Run

14. 13 Post-Processing Approaches for ETL Facility Use the Raw Model Output Limit ETL Facility to 1650 vphpl Incorporate ETL Into the Link Refinement Procedure

15. 14 ETL Raw Model Output Approach Represent the Toll Impact on the Demand Issue of Coarse Network – Loading Points Macro ― Level Assignment Algorithm Facility Open to All Traffic ― Over/Under

16. 15 Fixed Volume Flow Approach Limit the Volume 1650 vphpl Redistribute the Surplus or Shortfall to other Parallel Competing Routes Differs from Results of the Travel Demand Model Assignment Not Reflecting the Cost of Toll – Pricing Question

17. 16 Incorporating the ETL into the Link Refinement Approach Redistribute Volumes Over the Cutline Capacity & Count Factors New Facility Impedance – Capacity Adjust Capacity for the ETL Facility Reflect Demand

18. 17 Capacity Adjustment Freeway LOS “E” Capacity (2310 vphpl) Apply Peak to Daily Ratio Factor (8%) ― Daily Capacity Two Model Runs Toll Non-Toll Adjust the ETL Capacity Based on the Ratio of the Raw Assignments for Toll & Non-Toll Apply the Ratio to the LOS “E” Capacity for the ETL Redistribute Volumes over the Cutline Review Results – Adjust Toll Accordingly

19. 18 Overview of Process End No Yes Start Set Toll Cost Export Link Data Assign Links to Cutlines Calculate ETL Lane Capacity Evaluate Toll Demand OK Run TDFM No Toll Run TDFM Toll Vol non-toll Vol toll × Capacity LOS E { Peak Off-Peak NCHRP-255 Procedures

20. 19 Results Facility2000 Count Direct Model Output Raw Fixed Capacity Incorporate Part 2 of Link Refinement Procedure MD 2820,000 vpd Randolph Road33,800 vpd ICC

21. 20 Results Facility2000 Count Direct Model Output Raw Fixed Capacity Incorporate Part 2 of Link Refinement Procedure MD 2820,000 vpd Randolph Road33,800 vpd ICC68,986 vpd

22. 21 Results Facility2000 Count Direct Model Output Raw Fixed Capacity Incorporate Part 2 of Link Refinement Procedure MD 2820,000 vpd35,927 vpd Randolph Road33,800 vpd34,803 vpd ICC68,986 vpd

23. 22 Results Facility2000 Count Direct Model Output Raw Fixed Capacity Incorporate Part 2 of Link Refinement Procedure MD 2820,000 vpd35,927 vpd Randolph Road33,800 vpd34,803 vpd ICC68,986 vpd78,546 vpd

24. 23 Results Facility2000 Count Direct Model Output Raw Fixed Capacity Incorporate Part 2 of Link Refinement Procedure MD 2820,000 vpd35,927 vpd26,667 vpd Randolph Road33,800 vpd34,803 vpd42,501 vpd ICC68,986 vpd78,546 vpd

25. 24 Results Facility2000 Count Direct Model Output Raw Fixed Capacity Incorporate Part 2 of Link Refinement Procedure MD 2820,000 vpd35,927 vpd26,667 vpd Randolph Road33,800 vpd34,803 vpd42,501 vpd ICC68,986 vpd78,546 vpd62,958 vpd

26. 25 Results Facility2000 Count Direct Model Output Raw Fixed Capacity Incorporate Part 2 of Link Refinement Procedure MD 2820,000 vpd35,927 vpd26,667 vpd29,391 vpd Randolph Road33,800 vpd34,803 vpd42,501 vpd46,667 vpd ICC68,986 vpd78,546 vpd62,958 vpd ICC Toll Volume: 68,986 vpd ICC No-Toll Volume:127,723 vpd Capacity Reduction Factor: 52%

27. 26 Toll Demand Analysis

28. 27 Summary Developing ETL Forecast Traditional 4-Step Travel Demand Forecast Model Incorporate ETL Characteristics into NCHRP-255 Link Refinement Procedures Redistribute the Link Volumes based on Capacity Calculate the ETL Capacity Based on No-Toll and Toll Model Runs & Adjust ETL Capacity for Redistribution Open Process for EIS Requirements Report Regional Impacts & Measures of Effectiveness