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Lender Processing Services 1 ONE SOURCE. POWERFUL SOLUTIONS. : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : LPS Applied Analytics: Trends in Mortgage and Housing Presented to the Mortgage Bankers Association of Jacksonville
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Lender Processing Services 2 August prepayment rates hit the highest levels since 2005
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Lender Processing Services 3 High LTV non-government originations are up over 75% YTD
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Lender Processing Services 4 In Florida, high LTV non-government originations have more than tripled
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Lender Processing Services 5 High LTV prepayment rates in Florida are lower than national
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Lender Processing Services 6 Fewer than 30% of 2007 and prior vintages remain active and current
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Lender Processing Services 7 Despite historically low rates, origination activity is still limited
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Lender Processing Services 8 Florida origination activity has increased over the last six months
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Lender Processing Services 9 “30,000 foot view”: Delinquencies are improving, foreclosures still near highs House prices peak House prices drop 20% Over 3 MM loan mods Fed rate intervention
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Lender Processing Services 10 From 2005 to 2009 the crisis spread nationwide, impacting all regions
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Lender Processing Services 11 The State of the Union today: Regional improvement but still trouble spots Top 10 State Non Current% FL21.1% MS16.9% NV16.1% NJ16.0% IL13.6% NY13.2% MD12.9% LA12.7% RI12.7% ME12.6% Bottom 10 State Non- Current% ID7.8% VA7.2% NE6.2% MN6.2% CO6.0% MT5.4% AK5.1% WY4.9% SD4.7% ND3.6%
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Lender Processing Services 12 Non-judicial states have experienced greater improvement Non-Judicial: Down 31% from peak Judicial: Down 13% from peak Few non-judicial states remain close to peak levels Washington, NJ and Vermont are still at historic highs
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Lender Processing Services 13 Even where improvement is evident, magnitude varies Total non-current in Lee County was 1.4x of Jacksonville MSA at the peak
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Lender Processing Services 14 On average, Jacksonville modification rates have been higher than FL & US
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Lender Processing Services 15 Foreclosure starts still outnumber sales by more than 2:1
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Lender Processing Services 16 Florida foreclosure starts outnumber sales by almost 3:1 over last 12 months
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Lender Processing Services 17 Foreclosure start activity has increased in judicial states
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Lender Processing Services 18 First-time starts lowest since ’08; repeat foreclosure rate at new high
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Lender Processing Services 19 70% of FL foreclosure starts were “repeats”; first time at multi-year lows
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Lender Processing Services 20 Foreclosure inventory in Florida has declined, but still extremely high
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Lender Processing Services 21 The average loan in foreclosure is 622 days past due (ex FL, NY and NJ) Excluded from Average Florida = 932 New Jersey = 934 New York = 953
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Lender Processing Services 22 Timelines are long nation-wide, but judicial states are 1.4x non-judicial
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Lender Processing Services 23 Foreclosure timelines vary significantly within states Top 5 Counties County Days Delinquent For Foreclosure Inventory Monroe County1,074 Miami-Dade County1,058 Walton County1,044 Flagler County994 Palm Beach County989 Bottom 5 Counties County Days Delinquent For Foreclosure Inventory Lafayette County744 Holmes County744 Hardee County741 Alachua County717 Wakulla County695 Over 1 year timeline difference The average loan in foreclosure in Florida is over 2.5 years past due
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Lender Processing Services 24 Foreclosure sale activity is driven by regional processes and restrictions
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Lender Processing Services 25 Judicial and other legal actions have had significant effects on pipelines
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Lender Processing Services 26 With more distressed homes on the market, price pressure may continue
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Lender Processing Services 27 “30,000 foot view” (HPI Edition): Some signs of stabilization Home buyer tax credit expiration Fed rate intervention Easy credit, affordability products Collapse of non-agency market Long term trend?
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Lender Processing Services 28 The FL bubble was muted in JAX; local home prices down more than US
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Lender Processing Services 29 Even within zip codes price activity varies significantly
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Lender Processing Services 30 National REO and short sales prices are about 75% of non-distressed
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Lender Processing Services 31 REO discounts have improved in several states
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Lender Processing Services 32 REO discount in FL was lower than that of short sale for the first time
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Lender Processing Services 33 Nationally, 18% of current loans remain under-water Top 10 State Negative Equity % NV54.7% GA42.8% FL33.1% MI29.8% AZ28.4% IL27.4% ID24.1% CA23.7% MD23.4% WA22.2% Bottom 10 State Negative Equity % DC3.3% TX3.2% IN2.9% MT2.8% OK2.6% LA2.5% IA2.4% NE1.3% ND1.0% WY0.4%
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Lender Processing Services 34 Negative equity and new problem loan correlation is clear by geography
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Lender Processing Services 35 Relative price stability has supported improvement in new problem loans House prices peak House prices drop 20%
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Lender Processing Services 36 Further house price declines could lead to more new problems
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Lender Processing Services 37 What data are out there? LOAN BORROWER PROPERTY LOAN LEVEL DATA CREDIT BUREAU DATA PUBLIC RECORDS HPI LOSS MIT
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Lender Processing Services 38 LPS Loan Data (McDash) DatabaseKey StatisticsDetails Core First Lien Data set 38+ million active loans (140+ million historically) 10 of the top 10 servicing portfolios 70% of market Data collected monthly directly from servicers. Full credit spectrum with updates released 15 days after month end. 80+ fields in core database including loan attributes and collateral characteristics with loan level edit checks. No non-public personal information. Home Equity Data set 7+ million fixed rate 2nds and LOCs Data collected monthly directly from servicers. Includes 2nds, HELOCs, and HE loans/lines. 50+ fields in home equity database including loan attributes and collateral characteristics with loan level edit checks. No non-public personal information.
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