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IER Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Modeling of European Air Pollution.

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Presentation on theme: "IER Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Modeling of European Air Pollution."— Presentation transcript:

1 IER Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Modeling of European Air Pollution Control Strategies - an Integrated Approach The MERLIN team: Extension in the frame of the EC call to include partners from NAS: Energy Research Center (ERC) of Ostrava Technical University (Ostrava, Czech Republic) National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (Sofia, Bulgaria) University of Ploiesti (Ploiesti, Romania) IER University of Stuttgart (Co-ordinator) [GER] Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Laboratory for Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering (AUT/LHTEE) [GR] University College London (UCL) [UK] Norwegian Meteorological Institute (DNMI) [NO] ECOFYS Energy and Environment [NL] Institute for Ecology of Industrial Areas (IETU) [POL]

2 IER Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Objectives Development and application of methodologies and tools for an integrated assessment of European air pollution control strategies multi-pollutant, multi-effect assessment cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis inclusion of non-technical measures macroeconomic effects and distributional burdens of air pollution control inclusion of accession countries

3 IER Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Acidification Eutrophication Tropospheric Ozone Global Warming primary & secondary Aerosols Urban Air Quality NO x SO 2 NMVOC CO CO 2 CH 4 NH 3 N2ON2O Particulate Matter (PM 2.5 / PM 10 ) Multi-Pollutant Multi-Effect Analysis

4 IER Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung MERLIN Schedule

5 IER Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Comparison Between MERLIN and the IIASA-DNMI Contract

6 IER Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung MERLIN Scenarios 2000 Base Case2010 Business-as-usual (BAU) Optimised Scenarios (2005 to 2020) + 2020 BAU EMEP 2000 Emissions (country totals & sectoral) OR: EMEP 1999 Emissions (country totals, sectoral adaption according to GENEMIS Scenarios) EMEP 2010 Emission Projections (according to countries‘ submission) AND harmonisation/crosscheck with: official energy projections implementation of policies in place and in pipeline sectoral targets OMEGA II optimisation runs (annual) AND exogeneous changes in technology of stock sectoral activity rates... i.e.  2 runs for each year (2005,... 2010,... 2020) in the following way:

7 IER Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Calculate the resulting emissions for each country Calculate the resulting emissions for each country Crossbreed and mutate the surviving strategies Crossbreed and mutate the surviving strategies Remove strategies with worst performance Remove strategies with worst performance Evaluate results Calculate concentration changes on a 50 * 50 km grid Calculate concentration changes on a 50 * 50 km grid Generate the first set of solutions at random Stock activity database Source receptor Matrices (EMEP) End optimisation, if targets are achieved. MERLIN Optimisation Approach (Evolutionary Algorithm)

8 IER Universität Stuttgart Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung MERLIN Networking MERLIN maintains close links to ongoing activities, such as the UNECE Task Force Emission Inventories and Projection (TFEIP), UNECE Task Force Integrated Assessment Modelling (TFIAM), and the recently established UNECE Expert Group on Techno-Economic Issues (EGTEI) in order to make best efforts to harmonise work and take into account best available data sources.


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