1. College of Engineering Discovery with Purpose www.engineering.iastate.edu January 9, 2011 Introduction to Wind Energy James McCalley (jdm@iastate.edu)jdm@iastate.edu EE 459X/559X, Electromechanical wind energy conversion and grid integration

2. College of Engineering Homework 2 Develop your research proposal while you have no other homework to do. Your efforts to complete this project in a way that will be satisfying to you will largely depend on the efforts you put into developing your proposal. There is correlation between good proposals & good projects. Review DOE20by2030 report, posted to Blackboard; may help you focus your research proposal. Also see www.nrel.gov/docs/fy11osti/49975.pdf for summary. www.nrel.gov/docs/fy11osti/49975.pdf Search (web, ISU library, IEEE Xplore). Examples: http://www.ewea.org/?id=178 http://www.nrel.gov/wind/projects.html http://www1.eere.energy.gov/wind/past_opportunities.html

3. College of Engineering Overview (focus mainly on US) Preliminary energy concepts Background on wind power growth Policy issues for wind energy Wind energy in context Grand challenge questions 3

4. College of Engineering Capacity factor, CF 4 Time, t  Power, P(t) 1.5 MW Actual annual energy production as a percentage of annual energy production at P rated. Typical CF at windfarms range from 0.3-0.5. CF×P rated ×8760 gives annual energy production. But CF×P rated is a poor characterization for plant capacity at peak load. Use capacity credit for that. MISO summer CC=12.9%.

5. College of Engineering Worldwide Source: RenewableS 2011, Global Status Report 5

6. College of Engineering Worldwide Source: BTM Consultants, www.btm.dk/reports/world+market+update+2010 6

7. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US US Generation mix Wind & renewables are 3.6% by energy. Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 7

8. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US U.S. Annual & Cumulative Wind Power Capacity Growth Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 8 But what happened in 2010, 2011?

9. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Source: AWEA 2011 Third Quarter Market Report 9 2010 is different! Why? Not sure about 2011 (need 4Q)

10. College of Engineering Why was wind growth in 2010/2011 less than in previous years? Poor 2008-2009 economy: Less willingness to load, to build projects Less power demand! 10 Declining natural gas prices

11. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Percentage of New Capacity Additions. Source: AWEA 2010 Annual Wind Report 11 N. GAS WIND

12. College of Engineering 12 The boom in shale gas production is causing prices to bottom out. The irony here means that consumers are getting the cheapest natural gas in quite some time at the expense of those producers hoping to cash-in on the craze. With the advent of new technologies to allow shale gas explorers to reach deep inside the earth’s surface to retrieve such fuel, the market place has felt the effect. Prices, in fact, have been trending down for a few years. And while that fundamental should persevere, the retail cost of that gas is expected to rise over time. That’s because an increasing number of utilities will come to rely on it. “Natural gas used to generate power has half the carbon dioxide emissions of conventional coal power generation and near zero sulphur emissions,” says BP’s Energy Outlook. “Gas is expected to displace coal in power generation across the (developed world) due to rising carbon prices, permitting constraints for new plants and mandates.” BP goes on to say that natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel and that its share of the electric generation market will continue to climb. Unconventional gas such as shale and coal bed methane will help drive up those ratios, it adds, noting that such forms will comprise 57 percent of all natural gas production by 2030. That potential is the prevailing force even though it is causing short-term prices to drop -- 30 percent to 40 percent in a year. In the dead of winter, the price of natural gas is now $3 per million BTUs, which is $10 less for the same unit in the summer of 2008. None of the investment banks that analyze natural gas are bullish on prices this year; most are forecast to be in the $3 range with some in the low $4s. Despite the reduced price, producers can’t get enough of natural gas: The October 2011 monthly data presented by the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows gross production of 2,483 billion cubic feet, the highest month on record. Beyond the new technologies that now allow access to abundant supplies, the developers are aided to a large extent by policy makers who are making it difficult on the competition: coal. Reports are suggesting that will it cost as much as $70 billion to comply with all of the pending federal rules. Utilities are finding that it is easier and cheaper to retire their older, smaller coal units….BP’s Energy OutlookU.S. Energy Information Administration Source: EnergyBiz: Shale Gas Boom Causes Prices to Bottom Out Ken Silverstein | Jan 10, 2012Ken Silverstein http://www.energybiz.com/article/12/01/shale-gas-boom-causes-prices-bottom- out&utm_medium=eNL&utm_campaign=EB_DAILY2&utm_term=Original-Memerb

13. College of Engineering Top 20 states 13 Source: AWEA 2011 Third Quarter Market Report 14 of top 20 are in the interior of the nation. Top 3 coastal states are West. East coast is light on wind but heavy on load. Implication?  3 options for East coast use of wind: Build high cost inland wind, go offshore, or use transmission to move it from Midwest

14. College of Engineering 14 Source: AWEA 2011 First Quarter Market Report U.S. Wind Power Capacity By State

15. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US 15 Source: AWEA 2010 Third Quarter Market Report Source: AWEA Wind Power Outlook 2010

16. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Market share of total 2008 wind installations Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report 16

17. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Ownership by company and by regulated utility Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report 17

18. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Wind plant size Source: AWEA 2009 Annual Wind Report 18

19. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US 29 states, differing in % (10-40), timing (latest is 2030), eligible technologies/resources (all include wind)

20. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US Tax incentives Federal Incentives: Renewed incentives Feb 2009 through 12/31/12, via ARRA 2.2 cents per kilowatt-hour PTC or 30% investment tax credit (ITC) State incentives: IA: 1.5¢/kWhr for small wind, 1¢/kWhr for large wind Various other including sales & property tax reductions 20

21. College of Engineering Federal energy policy (don’t have one) 21 In congress, “Energy bill” means Federal RPS, and “Climate bill” means CO 2 emissions control. Waxman-Markey Energy/Climate bill passed house 6/09. Climate part was “Cap and Trade.” Related Kerry-Graham Climate bill did not pass Senate. 2010 Carbon Limits & Energy For America’s Renewal, CLEAR Act (Sen Collins/Cantwell), “Cap & Refund” Cap CO 2 “upstream” via sales of coal, gas, petroleum Producers/importers buys CO 2 permits in monthly auction 3/4 of auction revenues refunded to US citizens Congressional attention died; non-issue in pres. campaigns 7/11 EPA rules “Cross-State Air Pollution Rule” (CSAPR, for SO 2, NO x ), “Mercury/Air Toxics Standards” (MATS) have more effect, causing near-term power plant shut-down, but CSAPR stayed on 12/30/11 by US Court of Appeals, DC Circuit.

22. College of Engineering Background on Wind Energy in US 22

23. College of Engineering Solar, 0.09 Nuclear, 8.45 Hydro, 2.45 Wind, 0.51 Geotherma l0.35 Natural Gas 23.84 Coal 22.42 Biomass 3.88 Petroleum 37.13 26.33 8.58 27.39 20.9 Unused Energy (Losses) 57.07 Electric Generation 39.97 12.68 Used Energy 42.15 Residenti al 11.48 Commerci al 8.58 Industrial 23.94 Trans- portation 27.86 8.45 6.82 20.54 6.95 LightDuty: 17.12Q Freight: 7.55Q Aviation: 3.19Q 23

24. College of Engineering US ENERGY USE IS ABOUT 70% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION US CO2 EMISSIONS* IS ABOUT 71% ELECTRIC & TRANSPORTATION GREENING ELECTRIC & ELECTRIFYING TRANSPORTATION SOLVES THE EMISSIONS PROBLEM 24 * Anthropogenic

25. College of Engineering Solar, 1.0 Nuclear,15 Hydro, 2.95 Wind, 8.1 Geothermal 3.04 Natural Gas 23.84 Old Coal 10.42 Biomass 3.88 Petroleum 15.13 26.33 8.58 24.5 8.5 Unused Energy (Losse s) 43.0 Electric Generation 49.72 12.68 Used Energy 42.15 Residenti al 11.48 Commerci al 8.58 Industrial 23.94 Trans- portation 15.5 15 6.82 20.54 6.9 5 INCREASE Non-GHG 12Q to 30Q USE 11Q Electric for transportation 4.5Q IGCC, 2.26 REDUCE COAL 22Q TO 10Q REDUCE PETROLEUM 37Q  15Q LightDuty: 8.56Q Freight: 3.75Q Aviation: 3.19Q 25

26. College of Engineering 26 Technolg y Forecasted NERC, 2018 Hi Eff&Renewable UCS (NEMS), 2030 Hi IGCC/CCS NAE, 2035 Hi Wind ISU, 2035 ∆GWOvernight cost Trillion $ ∆GWOvernight cost Trillion $ ∆GWOvernight cost Trillion $ ∆GWOvernight cost Trillion $ Con Solar 20.40.1022381.195-065.50.329 PV solar -01741.051-058.90.356 Nuclear 14.80.0494.40.0151000.33260.90.202 Wind onshore 2290.4406701.2883500.6736301.211 Wind offshore -0620.239-0800.307 Geothrml 0.4.00231.80.127-01060.424 Coal convntnl 190.039red0 0 0 IGCC+seq -070.0244001.40029.50.103 NGCC 1070.103-0-0-0 Biomass -01570.591-0-0 TOTALS 3890.73513444.5168502.40510312.930

27. College of Engineering Grand Challenge Question For Energy: What investments should be made, how much, when, and where, at the national level, over the next 40 years, to achieve a sustainable, low cost, and resilient energy & transportation system? 27

28. College of Engineering NUCLEAR GEOTHERMAL SOLAR Wind BIOMASS CLEAN-FOSSIL Where, when, how much of each, & how to interconnect?

29. College of Engineering Grand Challenges For Wind: 1.Move wind energy from where it is harvested to where it can be used 2.Develop economically- attractive methods to accommodate increased variability and uncertainty introduced by large wind penetrations in operating the grid. 3.Improve wind turbine/farm economics (decrease investment and maintenance costs, increase operating revenues). 4.Address potential concerns about local siting, including wildlife, aesthetics, and impact on agriculture. 29

30. College of Engineering Wind vs. people 30

31. College of Engineering How to address grand challenges 31 #1. Move wind energy from where it is harvested to where it can be used. Transmission Eastern interconnection Midwest to East coast National Superhighways at 765 kV AC and/or 600/800 kV DC Right of way (rail, interstate highwys, existing transmission) Cost allocation Organizational nightmare Conductor technologies: overhead/underground, materials Offshore, lower CF turbines, higher turbines, but all of these result in higher cost of energy

32. College of Engineering How to address grand challenges 32

33. College of Engineering How to address grand challenges 33 #2. Develop economically-attractive methods to accom- modate increased variability and uncertainty introduced by large wind penetrations in operating the grid. Variability: Increase gas turbines Wind turbine control Load control Storage (pumped hydro, compressed air, flywheels, batteries, others) Increase geodiversity Uncertainty: Decrease it: improve forecasting uncertainty Handle it better: Develop UC decisions robust to wind pwr uncertainty

34. College of Engineering How to address grand challenges 34 #3. Improve wind turbine/farm economics (decrease investment/maint costs, increase operating revenues). Investment: Improve manufacturing/supply chain processes, construction, collection circuit layout, interconnection cost, land lease, and financing Operating & maintenance: Improve monitoring/evaluation for health assessment/prediction/life-ext Decrease maintenance costs (gearbox vs. direct-drive) Enhance energy extraction from wind per unit land area Improved turbine siting Inter-turbine and inter-farm control Increased efficiency of drive-train/generator/converters Lighter, stronger materials and improved control of rotor blades Taller turbines

35. College of Engineering 35 Wind turbine down-time distribution Reference: McMillan and Ault, “Quantification of Condition Monitoring Benefit for Offshore Wind Turbines,” 2007.

36. College of Engineering How to address grand challenges 36 #4. Address potential concerns about local siting, including wildlife, visual/audible, impact on agriculture. Migratory birds and bats: mainly a siting issue for birds. Bat-kill is more frequent. Agriculture: Agronomists indicate wind turbines may help! Visual: a sociological issue These issues have not been significant yet. Today, in Iowa, there are ~2600 turbines, with capacity 3700 MW. At 2 MW/turbine, a growth to 60 GW would require 30000 turbines, and assuming turbines are located only on cropland having class 3 or better winds (about 1/6 of the state), this means these regions would see, on average, one turbine every 144 acres.