1. Higher Resolution Operational Models

2. Operational Mesoscale Model History Early: LFM, NGM (history) Eta (mainly history) MM5: Still used by some, but phasing out NMM- Main NWS mesoscale model. Sometimes called WRF-NMM WRF-ARW: Heavily used by research and some operational communities. The NWS calls their mesoscale run NAM: North American Mesoscale. Now NMM

3. Eta Model

4. Eta Coordinate And Step Mountains MSL ground  = 1 Ptop  = 0

6. Horizontal resolution of 12 km 12-km terrain

7. Drawbacks of the Eta Coordinate The failure to generate downslope wind storms in regions of complex terrain Weak boundary layer winds over elevated terrain when compared to observations The displacement of precipitation maxima too far toward the bottom of steeply sloping terrain as opposed to the observed location near the top half of the terrain slope The reduction in the number of vertical layers used to define the model atmosphere above elevated topography particularly within the boundary layer

9. WRF and NMM

10. Why WRF? An attempt to create a national mesoscale prediction system to be used by both operational and research communities. A new, state-of-the-art model that has good conservation characteristics (e.g., conservation of mass) and good numerics (so not too much numerical diffusion) A model that could parallelize well on many processors and easy to modify. Plug-compatible physics to foster improvements in model physics. Designed for grid spacings of 1-10 km

11. WRF Modeling System Obs Data, Analyses Post Processors, Verification WRF Software Infrastructure Dynamic Cores Mass Core NMM Core … Standard Physics Interface Physics Packages Static Initialization 3DVAR Data Assimilation

12. Two WRF Cores ARW (Advanced Research WRF) developed at NCAR Non-hydrostatic Numerical Model (NMM) Core developed at NCEP Both work under the WRF IO Infrastructure NMM ARW

13. The NCAR ARW Core Model: (See: www.wrf-model.org)  Terrain following vertical coordinate  two-way nesting, any ratio  Conserves mass, entropy and scalars using up to 6 th order spatial differencing equ for fluxes. Very good numerics, less implicit smoothing in numerics.  NCAR physics package ( converted from MM5 and Eta ), NOAH unified land-surface model, NCEP physics adapted too

14. The NCEP Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model: NMM (Janjic et al. 2001), NWS WRF  Hybrid sigma  pressure vertical coord.  3:1 nesting ratio  Conserves kinetic energy, enstrophy and momentum using 2 nd order differencing equation  Modified Eta physics, Noah unified land-surface model, NCAR physics adapted too

15. The National Weather Service dropped Eta in 2006 as the NAM (North American Mesoscale) run and replaced it with WRF NMM. The Air Force uses WRF ARW. Most universities use WRF ARW

16. NWS NMM—The NAM RUN Run every six hours over N. American and adjacent ocean Run to 84 hours at 12-km grid spacing. Uses the Grid-Point Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation system (3DVAR) Start with GDAS (GFS analysis) as initial first guess at t-12 hour (the start of the analysis cycle) Runs an intermittent data assimilation cycle every three hours until the initialization time.

17. October 2011 Update: NMMB One-way nested forecasts computed concurrently with the 12-km NMM-B parent run for –CONUS (4 km to 60 hours) –Alaska (6 km to 60 hours) –Hawaii (3 km to 60 hours) –Puerto Rico (3 km to 60 hours) –For fire weather, moveable 1.33-km CONUS and 1.5-km Alaska nests are also run concurrently (to 36 hours). A change in horizontal grid from Arakawa-E to Arakawa- B grid, which speeds up computations without degrading the forecast

18. 18 September 2011 NAM Upgrade Current NAM WRF-NMM (E-grid) 4/Day = 6 hr update Forecasts to 84 hours 12 km horizontal grid spacing New NAM NEMS based NMMB B-grid replaces E-grid Parent remains 12 km to 84 hr Four Fixed Nests Run to 60 hr –4 km CONUS nest –6 km Alaska nest –3 km HI & PR nests Single placeable 1.33km or 1.5 km FireWeather/IMET/DHS run to 36hrSingle placeable 1.33km or 1.5 km FireWeather/IMET/DHS run to 36hr

19. NMMB 4-km Conus

20. NMM Was generally inferior to GFS

22. Looks like it has improved…