1. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events Averil Horton Brunel University, UK The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011

2. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events Backcasting Causal layered analysis Delphi Diagnotstic Indicators Dialogue Driver analysis Folksonomies Gaming Horizon scanning Indicators & Warnings Issues trees Modelling and simulation Narrative Plausibility matrix Reverse engineering Review of abstracts Roadmaps Scenarios Seven questions STEEP Systems maps The Fifth scenario Trend analysis Visioning Windtunnelling

3. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events

9. Agents, of a variety of types, use their strategies, in patterned interaction, with each other and with artefacts. Performance measures on the resulting events drive the selection of agents and/or strategies through processes of error-prone copying and recombination, thus changing the frequencies of the types within the system. A Complexity Definition

10. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events Complex Systems ElementTaxies in a big city ExampleFlying flock of birds Example Agents.. Cab drivers (and their customers)…Birds in a flock..of a variety of types Experienced, new, clean, not clean, night, cheating Experienced, young, male, female, hungry..use their strategies (rules).. 1 Minimise time to find customer 2 Go where customer wants 1 Avoid crowding neighbours 2 Steer towards the average heading of neighbours 3 Move toward the average position of neighbours..in patterned interaction, with each other.. Customer directs drive, pays driver. Driver drives customer to location Fly together to locations without crashing..and with artefacts.Money, cars, phones Wind, wings?! Performance measures on the resulting events.. Profit made, car undamagedDon’t hit obstacle Don’t loose the flock..drive the selection of agents and/or strategies.. Drivers who don’t make enough profit go out of business Cars that are damaged reduce drivers profit Die if hit obstacle Get eaten by predator if loose the flock..through processes of error-prone copying and recombination.. Try out strategies of other successful drivers – jumping lights, cleaning cab Try out strategies to get to best food-position in flock – fly faster, slower..changing the frequencies of the types within the system. More successful drivers, fewer new drivers, more cleaner cabs More faster flyers

11. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events embrace emergence focus on interactions recognise that even the most basic rules can change work with phase change accept there may be no early warning signals recognise that tiny, trivial, issues can have a huge effects visualise situations from very different perspectives, including some that appear impossible now provide both optimisation and exploration processes Complexity tell us that Foresight Techniques must…

12. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events Reframing is… Changing the way you think …the way you see things …….. and the way you understand things So that you can Not try to solve problems using the same frame they emerged from Generate new solutions Enable alternative actions

13. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events A short story….. the ‘shadow of the future’

14. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events Benefits of Reframing Realising that you have more choices than you thought Being aware that you already have own frames Bringing something new into existence Creating something outside the cone of possibilities Deconstructing an existing frame to show others that they are stuck in one frame Being able to switch between frames

15. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events

20. Neuroscience tells us that Futures Techniques must… use a right approach to provide insights and alternative perspectives that can’t be brought about by an effort of will (sleep example)… … but enrich the results using the left… …apply the results with the right… …present results to the world of work with the left exploit the right brain’s ability to hold conflicting views at the same time

21. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events

22. Policy Making Implications Discover new policy problems or opportunities. Scope or define a policy area and determine a vision Identify policy options. Test policy options Implement policy. Monitor policy Conceptual Policy Making Process

23. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events Promoting Variation

24. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events Promoting Variation Creating an enabling environment for variation. Studying from past and current experiences and adapt as needed Promoting variation

25. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events Promoting Variation Policy DirectionPolicy DesignPolicy Delivery 1 Identify a set of alternative response strategies that can be undertaken 2 Understand the resources or skill-sets required for the deployment of each of these alternative strategies and facilitate adoption and deployment of these strategies through appropriate policies to minimize risks. 3 Identify and characterise the probable conditions of risk relating to alternative options and identify strategies to minimize the projected risks. 4 Scenario analysis and planning methods can be used for identifying such risks 1 Facilitate the smooth transition of each of identified response strategies into the operation phase 2 Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies. 3 Provide a range of policy options 4 Design and use a mix of policy instruments to achieve a single policy objective 5 See and make linkages with other policies that have similar intent 1 Comparative analysis of the costs of implementation and benefits accrued on implementation of each of the strategies needs to be undertaken in a regular manner to update on the efficiency of each of the strategies as newer conditions unfold and emerge 2 Monitor and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation 3 Incorporate feedback from the grassroots level where variation needs to be promoted. 4 Observe which policies work well and strengthening those policies

26. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events Promoting Variation Policy DirectionPolicy DesignPolicy Delivery 1 Identify a set of alternative response strategies that can be undertaken 2 Understand the resources or skill-sets required for the deployment of each of these alternative strategies and facilitate adoption and deployment of these strategies through appropriate policies to minimize risks. 3 Identify and characterise the probable conditions of risk relating to alternative options and identify strategies to minimize the projected risks. 4 Scenario analysis and planning methods can be used for identifying such risks 1 Facilitate the smooth transition of each of identified response strategies into the operation phase 2 Remove the barriers that hinder the adoption of these strategies. 3 Provide a range of policy options 4 Design and use a mix of policy instruments to achieve a single policy objective 5 See and make linkages with other policies that have similar intent 1 Comparative analysis of the costs of implementation and benefits accrued on implementation of each of the strategies needs to be undertaken in a regular manner to update on the efficiency of each of the strategies as newer conditions unfold and emerge 2 Monitor and evaluate the policy instruments deployed to promote variation 3 Incorporate feedback from the grassroots level where variation needs to be promoted. 4 Observe which policies work well and strengthen those policies

27. Complexity Science Approaches to Disruptive Events To conclude…. It↔ is ↔ all ↔ about ↔ relationships ↔ & ↔ interactions Think emergence Impossible is only an opinion  You can hold two opp (It is good to be dreamy and think inattentively) & phase change Seeing things differently differently is essential osite opinions at the same time