1. 1 Scenario-Based Planning for the Regional Impacts of Statewide Multimodal Transportation Policies Progress Report to the VTrans2035 Advisory Committee By James H. Lambert with Megan N. Kersh, Asad A. Saqib, Matthew J. Schroeder, Edward E. Williams IV, James H. Lambert May 15, 2008

2. 2 Acknowledgments  Commonwealth’s Multimodal Transportation Office  VTrans2035  Virginia Department of Transportation  Virginia Transportation Research Council

3. 3 Summary  Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning  Assessed the needs of regional transportation planners  Developed a scenario-based analysis of regional multimodal transportation impacts  Designed an Excel workbook to apply scenario- based planning approach to regions of the Commonwealth

4. 4 Presentation Outline  Introduction and motivation  Problem definition  Project background  Technical approach overview  Demonstrate workbook  Conclusions and future work

5. 5 Motivation  Virginia’s diverse transportation system More than 60,000 miles of roadway 67 public-use airports 4 state-operated port terminals Over 40 fixed route transit systems Extensive freight and passenger rail  Scenario-based planning is essential for planning on a thirty-year horizon

6. 6 VTrans2035  “…policy framework for an integrated multimodal transportation system that improves mobility and adds to the prosperity and the quality of life for Virginia”  Modal agencies DOAV VDRPT VDOT DMV VPA Pierce R. Homer Secretary of Transportation VTrans2035 Advisory Committee Heads of Modal Agencies Analysis support for scenario-based planning

7. 7 Problem Definition  Characterize the regional impacts of statewide multimodal transportation policies  Develop a survey for seeking consensus and differences of transportation planners  Begin to explore region by region across the Commonwealth

8. 8 Regional Planning Organizations

9. 9 Timeline  September 2007: Contact with Virginia’s Multimodal Office  November 2007: Virginia Transportation Conference, Roanoke, Virginia  December 2007: Roanoke Valley Alleghany MPO student paper competition  February 2008: Meeting with Dr. Tischer and Deputy Secretary Ralph Davis, Michael Garrett, Kimberly Pryor-Spence, Katherine Graham, VDOT, on economic input output analysis  February 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO  March 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO  May 2008: Briefing with Dr. Tischer and Katherine Graham  May 2008: Briefing with VTrans2035 Advisory Committee

10. 10 Project Website www.virginia.edu/crmes/multimodal2

11. 11 Scenario-Based Planning  Use of scenarios to guide forecasts, projects, and policies  Advocated by the Federal Highway Administration  Several different approaches for methodology Source: FHWA, various sources

12. 12 Types of Scenarios  Spatial  Economic  Demographic Number of households, in/out-migration  Other Environmental Availability of energy resources National emergencies Natural disasters

13. 13 Spatial Scenarios  Urban core repopulates People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged Public transportation increases, clean transportation  Sprawl accelerates Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion  Information technology amenities grow More workers telecommute so sprawl continues Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas  Region undivided Shift job and household growth from west to east  Transit oriented development More people live and work closer to transit Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee- documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

14. 14 Economic Scenarios  Regional economy strengthens Many workers move to region, sprawl continues  Global trade intensifies Population decreases, increased use of automobiles  Energy cost rises People relocate to more transit-oriented locations Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases  Infrastructure investment expands May draw people to area in the long run Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee- documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

15. 15 Demographic Scenarios  In-migration increases Total population increases, decreased use of auto  Out-migration increases Population decreases, increased use of auto  More households Increased household growth to balance forecast job growth Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee- documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

16. 16 Other Scenarios  “Green” region emphasized Use of public transit, bike, etc.  Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland security tightened Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized  Carbon constrained future  Energy constrained future Global price shocks and shortages Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee- documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt

17. 17 Scenario-Based Planning (cont.)  Identify key regional issues  Identify key factors for issues  Combine key factors and issues to make future scenarios  Explore scenarios with a variety of stakeholders

18. 18 Stages of the Analysis

19. 19 Transportation Policies  Twenty-one policies of VTrans2035 and Office of Multimodal Transportation Planning  Sample of policies P.4 – Fund rail P.6 – Strengthen planning and modeling P.24 – Going green (specific to region) P.23 – Improve bicycle and pedestrian paths (specific to region)

20. 20 Scenarios  Used nineteen scenarios based on studies throughout the U.S.  Focused on five scenarios for the region in our case study S.2 – Sprawl accelerates S.17 – Retirement S.18 – Natural disaster S.3 – IT amenities grow S.19 – Decrease in air quality

21. 21 Transportation Criteria (“Goals”)  Six high level criteria with 34 sub-criteria  High level goals: C.1 – Safety and Security C.2 – Preservation and Management C.3 – Efficient Movement of Goods and People C.4 – Economic Vitality C.5 – Quality of Life C.6 – Program Delivery

22. 22 Workbook - Introduction

23. 23 Workbook – Policy Definitions

24. 24 Workbook – Policy Ratings

25. 25 Workbook – Scenario Definitions

26. 26 Workbook – Criteria Weighting

27. 27 Workbook – Policy Comparison

28. 28 Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)

29. 29 Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)

30. 30 Summary of Progress  Explored scenario-based planning approach to analyze impacts of regional multimodal transportation policies  Integrated policies, scenarios, and evaluation criteria in an Excel workbook  Characterized regional impacts for multimodal transportation policies

31. 31 Future Work  Survey MPOs to to find what scenarios are used in long-range planning  Customize workbook for survey of regional organizations  Implement a telephone survey to gather input to the workbook  Collate the results in support of VTrans2035

32. 32 RVAMPO Student Paper Award

33. 33 RVAMPO Award (cont.) In Roanoke with Competition Sponsor Receiving Best Student Paper Award Team with UVa Engineering Dean James Aylor and Department of Systems and Information Engineering Chair, Prof. Don Brown