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Demographic Change in Europe: with a focus on Longevity James W. Vaupel presented by Harald Wilkoszewski EPRS/ALLEA/ESF presentation, 24 March 2015.

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Presentation on theme: "Demographic Change in Europe: with a focus on Longevity James W. Vaupel presented by Harald Wilkoszewski EPRS/ALLEA/ESF presentation, 24 March 2015."— Presentation transcript:

1 Demographic Change in Europe: with a focus on Longevity James W. Vaupel presented by Harald Wilkoszewski EPRS/ALLEA/ESF presentation, 24 March 2015

2 www.population-europe.eu

3 The advancing frontier of survival The decline in chances of death in Germany at ages 85, 90 and 95 1950196019701980199020002010 0. 0 0. 1 0. 2 0. 3 0. 4 Age 85 Age 90 Age 95 Year x q(x)  Women

4 The explosion of centenarians 186119001925195019752000 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 8 0 0 Number of women 100+ or 105+ Year Swedes 100+ Japanese 105+

5 Age The Postponement of Senescence: Evidence from Sweden Data from Human Mortality Database. Also see Christensen…Vaupel, Lancet 2009, 2013. 30405060708090 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 1950 1980 2010 57 68 63 Swedish Females Age 30-90 Risk of Death 68=57

6 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Germany Japan Sweden Iceland Norway Australia Netherlands Switzerland New Zealand 1840186018801900192019401960198020002020 Year Life expectancy in years The life expectancy revolution

7 2004 1984 93 = 87 The postponement of senescence % cognitively impaired, U.S. 1984 vs. 2004 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 % 65-6970-7475-7980-8485-8990-9495+ Age

8 MaxO Odense MPIDR Rostock MPG Munich


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