1. Emerging Regional Economic Architecture: Outlook for the ASEAN-Plus Processes and TPP A Presentation at the International Conference on Asia-Pacific Regional Economic Integration and Architecture Auckland, March 5, 2010 Professor Sung-Hoon Park Graduate School of International Studies Korea University shpark@korea.ac.kr

2. Order of Discussion I. Issues at Stake II. Revisiting the Old Initiatives III. Exploring New Initiatives IV. Remaining Issues

3. I. Issues at Stake Increasing Worldwide and Asia-Pacific Regionalism United States since Mid-1980s Asian Financial Crisis 1997 APEC’s Difficulties to Achieve Bogor Goals (Crises) New and Old Initiatives for Asia-Pacific Regional Architecture Old: APEC; ASEAN+1; ASEAN+3; East Asia Summit New: TPP-4; TPP-8; FTAAP; APC; EAC, etc.

4. II. Revisiting the Old Initiatives East Asian Processes East Asian FTA? Form/Coverage/Membership Northeast Asian Processes China+Japan+Korea (CJK)? Korea+China? Japan+China? Asia-Pacific Processes ASEAN+X and the ASEAN-Centrality FTAAP a Solution?

5. III. Increasing New Initiatives: Asia-Pacific Community (APC) What Differentiation to Existing and Old Initiatives? Community for What? ASEAN as an Entity or on the Basis of Individual Countries? ASEAN-Centrality Abandoned? Loose End for Membership a Main Feature? United States Russia

6. III. Exploring New Initiatives: East Asia Community (EAC) What Differentiation to Existing and Old Initiatives? Community for What? Membership Issue United States? India? Russia? Vehicle of Cooperation and Integration? Trade and Investment? Diplomacy and Security?

7. III. Exploring New Initiatives: FTA of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP) From the Scratch or Using Stepping Stones? An APEC-wide Negotiation? TPP’s as a Stepping Stone? ASEAN+X as a Stepping Stone? Linking (Docking and Merging) Sub-regionals? Other Issues to be Resolved Roadmap TPP-4  TPP-8  TPP-10  FTAAP?: Commitment Strong Enough? ASEAN+3  ASEAN+6 (EAS)  ASEAN+X? NAFTA+AFTA+?

8. III. Exploring New Initiatives: Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Initial Launch and Membership Expansion Planned TPP-4  TPP-8  Tpp-10(?)  TPP-21(?) Europe’s “Staged Regionalism” as a Model? A Number of Obstacles Expected Asia-Pacific Diversity and the Final Goal? A Divide in Asia-Pacific a Big Risk  To be Addressed The “Leadership” Problem United States? What Role for China? What about “ASEAN” as an Entity

9. IV. Remaining Issues Asia-Pacific Diversity ASEAN-Centrality Areas of Cooperation Trade and Investment the Only Cooperation Area? Security? Financial/Monetary Cooperation? Modality of Cooperation OECD Modality?

10. Thank You Very Much!