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Deere & Company Yen-Hua Huang (Gina) Cheng- Yuan Huang Yu-Te Hung (Ted) Te-Chi Kuo (William) Presented: April 12, 2012
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Agenda Overview Macroeconomics Industry Descriptions Company Descriptions Financial analysis and Competitors Financial projection and Models Recommendation
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Overview: Deere & Company, founded 1837, is an globalized company and provides products and services primarily for agriculture and forestry all over the world. It operates in three major business segments: agriculture/ turf (A&T), construction/forestry, & financial services. GICS MAP20106010SymbolDE Current Price79.34 (4/12/2012) Forward P/E12.16 Market Cap.32.04BEnterprise Value57.87B ROA5.99%EPS6.75 ROE42.32%Profit Margin8.63%
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Source from Deere Mar 2012 presentation for strategy
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Macroeconomic Tailwinds : Global population Global infrastructure needs
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Macroeconomic Tailwinds : Population growing in size and affluence By 2050, world population will reach 9 billion, up from ~7 billion today, with most of population growth in Asia and Africa More People, More Food
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Source from Deere Mar 2012 presentation for strategy
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Source from Deere Mar 2012 presentation for strategy
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Sector : Industrial Goods Industry : Farm and Construction Machinery Farm Equipment : Construction Equipment : Source from IBIS world
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Construction Revenue Drivers : the value of all non-residential construction Demand from mining The value of residential construction Source form IBIS world
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Farm revenue drivers Demand from crop production Agriculture price index Private spending on home improvements Source form IBIS world
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Main Competitors: Company's Name TickerStock PriceForward P/EEPS Deere & Company DE79.349.66.75 Caterpillar Inc. CAT105.879.357.4 CNH Global NV CNH41.048.833.91 Kubota Corporation KUB47.8314.152.59 AGCO Corporation AGCO45.558.615.95
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Relevant Stock Market Prospects Deere & Company’s GICS code is #20106010. Therefore, the firm majorly competes with Caterpillar Inc. (CAT), CNH Global NV( CNH), and AGCO Corporation (AGCO).
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Relevant Stock Market Prospects: Industry Top 1 st Player: Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) accounts for 20.3% of the market share. Top 2 nd Player: Deere & Company (DE) accounts for 7.5% of the market share. -Caterpiller provides more comprehensive product lines, including construction & mining equipment and logging machinery -Deere is the world’s leading manufacturer of agricultural equipment -Both of them are Illinois-based
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Relevant Stock Market Prospects Key statistics regarding Deere and its competitors Source: Yahoo Finance
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Relevant Stock Market Prospects - Compared with the market index Source: Yahoo Finance
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A Glance at the Company and Its Business - Basic Description Deere & Company manufactures and services primarily for agriculture and forestry worldwide. Agricultural output will need to double by mid- century to satisfy demand and do so from the essentially same amount of land and with even less water. Deere & Company is consisted of: 1. Agriculture & Turf Segment 2. Construction & Forestry Segment 3. Financial Service Segment
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A Glance at the Company and Its Business - Basic Description - Agricultural & Turf segment provides utility equipment and related parts Tractor Model D Wheeled Feller Buncher Cotton Picker Rice Binder Sub-compact Utility Tractor Source from Deere website
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A Glance at the Company and Its Business - Basic Description - Construction & Forestry segment offers utility equipment and related parts Source from Deere website Earthmoving contractor and road builder Power Shovel
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A Glance at the Company and Its Business - Basic Description - Financial service segment works for worldwide equipment financing, marketing and business development, agricultural financial service, and international lending. -Deere’s interest income will be viewed as the operating assets. -If its debt rating is downgraded, the financial service will not support Deere’s sales as before.
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A Glance at the Company and Its Business Deere’s Strategy 1. Continue to grow strong at 2 nd position in North America 2. Globalize the Business 3. Improve volumes and pricing 4. Grow market share in developing market
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A Glance at the Company and Its Business A Leading Technology Source: Deere’s website
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A Glance at the Company and Its Business Revenue by Business Segment
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A Glance at the Company and Its Business Revenue by Geographic Segment
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A Glance at the Company and Its Business Business Drivers: - Demand from crop production -Agricultural price index -Private spending on home improvements -Natural disaster index
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Brief Description of Deere’s Competitors: Caterpillar Inc. : world’s leader of manufacturer of construction and mining equipment. CNH Global NV : important manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment. Kubota Corporation : Japan’s leader of manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment AGCO Corporation : Europe-based manufacturer of agricultural equipment
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CAT
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CNH
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KUB
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AGCO
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Financial Ratios Company's Name TickerStock Price Forward P/E EPSEBIT/TAEBIT/EV Deere & Company DE79.349.66.7513.00%8.61% Caterpillar Inc. CAT105.879.357.413.78%7.03% CNH Global NV CNH41.048.833.917.62%8.91% Kubota Corporation KUB47.8314.152.598.84%7.46% AGCO Corporation AGCO45.558.615.9512.32%7.33%
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DECATCNHKUBAGCOIndustryAve. Market Cap 32.88B68.55B9.84B12.01B4.43B2.14B Current P/E 12.1214.3110.518.477.6610.15 12.61 Forward P/E 9.69.358.8314.158.61N/A10.11 Prof. Margin 8.63%8.19%4.89%5.44%6.65%7.38%6.76% P/B 4.825.341.211.551.492.22.88 P/S 11.140.50.990.510.90.83 ROE 5.99%6.16%4.17%4.35%6.00%4.65%5.33% ROA 42.32%40.29%12.07%8.60%20.57%14.00%24.77% Multiples
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Joel Greenblatt (in million) (In thousands) EBIT Tangible Assets EVEBIT/TAEBIT/EVSUM DE4.9847.0856.91 13.00%8.61% 21.61% CAT7.1269.9999.84 13.78%7.03% 20.81% CNH1.9431.0121.45 7.62%8.91% 16.53% KUB1.1216.3714.75 8.84%7.46% 16.3% AGCO0.595.405.17 12.32%7.33% 19.65%
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Source: Yahoo. Finance
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Dupont Analysis Dupont Ratio2008200920102011 Profit Margin7.96%4.21%7.95%9.53% Total Asset Turnover 66.62%50.46%54.48%61.12% Equity Multiplier 592.50%852.02%686.42%707.38% ROE31.42%18.10%29.73%41.20%
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Liabilities Breakdown
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Assets Breakdown
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Source form Deere 2010 annual report Receivable :
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1.Required return Financial Projections
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2. Growth rate 3. Key assumption(A1 and A2 sheet) Financial Projections
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DCF Model Application of Valuation Tools
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Recommendation: Buy 100 shares @market price Current Price$79.34 (04/12/2012) DCF Price$96.27 Multiple Price$85.12 Target Price $94.04
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Thank you ! Q&A
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