1. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 1 November 8, 2006 AN EVALUATION OF TAMDAR SOUNDINGS IN SEVERE WEATHER FORECASTING Ed Szoke 1, Randy Collander 1, Brian Jamison 1, Tracy Smith 1 Tom Schlatter 2, Stan Benjamin, and Bill Moninger, NOAA/ESRL Global Systems Division 1 Joint collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado 2 Joint collaboration with the Cooperative Institute in the Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado

2. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 2 November 8, 2006 Overview Purpose of this talk: Introduce a new source of aircraft measurements that include humidity measurements (TAMDAR) Demonstrate the potential value of these observations for severe storm forecasting Three cases will be shown from this summer and fall

3. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 3 November 8, 2006 What is TAMDAR? Stands for Tropospheric AMDAR (Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay Humidity instrument developed by a private company, AirDat LLC of Raleigh, NC Data has been taken for over 2 years and evaluated by GSD, AirDat, and the NWS (especially WFO Green Bay) For this period a test fleet of regional airlines has been flying out of some major and many smaller airports across the Midwest south to the lower Mississippi Valley region Experiment known as Great Lakes Fleet Experiment See http://www.crh.noaa.gov/tamdar Data available on GSD website (for now...) http://acweb.fsl.noaa.gov/java Also on AWIPS

4. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 4 November 8, 2006 Typical TAMDAR coverage...here for 10 UTC 18 Oct 06 – 04 UTC 19 Oct

5. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 5 November 8, 2006 Case 1: Ohio Valley severe weather on 14 July 2006 Key points: Series of TAMDAR soundings from Detroit (DTX) Comparison of 1800 UTC special DTX RAOB with TAMDAR Severe reports nicely occurred within SPC Outlook But many of the reports occurred before the first Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued at 2015 UTC. Could the TAMDAR soundings in Ohio have helped with issuing an earlier watch?

6. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 6 November 8, 2006 Severe Weather on 14 July

7. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 7 November 8, 2006 Case 1 - 14 July 06: Potential severe weather in the Ohio Valley ahead of a weak cold front 1600 UTC SPC Convective Outlook has much of the area in a slight risk

8. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 8 November 8, 2006 TAMDAR coverage in area of interest on 14 July DTX (Detroit) is one of the 3 main TAMDAR hubs

9. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 9 November 8, 2006 The morning inversion erodes with time but a warm layer remains just above 800 mb that apparently limits development in this area. Boundary layer moisture remains about the same, even increasing in depth by 1800 UTC. Time series of TAMDARs from DTW (Detroit) with 12z raob

10. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 10 November 8, 2006 Pretty good comparison of the special launch with one of the many DTW TAMDARs. Comparison of DTW special 18z raob with TAMDAR

11. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 11 November 8, 2006 Conditions 1800-1830 UTC: 1900 UTC Convective Outlook about the same Line of cells beginning to develop west of ILN with another line farther southwest

12. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 12 November 8, 2006 Conditions at 1900 UTC on 14 July: Detroit at northern edge of developing line

13. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 13 November 8, 2006 Conditions at 2100 UTC on 14 July: Several watches now issued but lots of OH severe weather has already occurred.

14. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 14 November 8, 2006 Conditions at DAY are shown to become more favorable during the morning to early afternoon hours. TAMDAR series from DAY (Dayton, OH) with nearby 12z raob

15. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 15 November 8, 2006 Still a cap late in the morning. Parcel for the 1554 UTC Dayton TAMDAR

16. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 16 November 8, 2006 But by afternoon conditions ahead of the developing line are quite favorable. There was not a special 18z RAOB from ILN, so TAMDAR soundings from DAY showing decreasing cap with boundary layer warming and moisture remaining at high levels might have helped with an earlier watch. Parcel for the 1839 UTC Dayton TAMDAR

17. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 17 November 8, 2006 Case 2: Midwest severe weather on 2 August 2006 Key points: Series of TAMDAR soundings from Detroit (DTX) Comparison of 1800 UTC special DTX RAOB with TAMDAR Severe reports nicely occurred within SPC Outlook But many of the reports occurred before the first Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued at 2015 UTC. Could the TAMDAR soundings in Ohio have helped with issuing an earlier watch?

18. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 18 November 8, 2006 Case 2: 2 Aug 06 Midwest severe weather potential ahead of a cold front. Conditions at 12 z

19. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 19 November 8, 2006 2 Aug 06 TAMDAR flights and airports of interest

20. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 20 November 8, 2006 Depth of moisture is similar; strongest cap is farther north at South Bend. Some relevant morning TAMDAR soundings

21. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 21 November 8, 2006 2 Aug 06 - 2100 UTC: Not much happening yet

22. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 22 November 8, 2006 The PIA RAOB is in green. Conditions were become quite favorable towards 2148 UTC, but then there is a lot of drying just ~45 min later. The TAMDAR 2230 UTC sounding would give a 90 min lead time over the drying that was also seen in the RAOB. Set of afternoon PIA (Peoria, IL) TAMDARs with the nearby 00 UTC RAOB

23. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 23 November 8, 2006 The drying occurred all across central IL, ahead of the cold front, and made that area less favorable for storms, but at SBN (South Bend, IN) conditions are gradually became much more favorable with the moisture remaining and the cap lessening. Set of TAMDARs in IL into nrn IN with the ILX 00 UTC raob

24. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 24 November 8, 2006 As seen in this time series of TAMDARs from SBN (South Bend, IN)

25. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 25 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions. The SPC nicely placed a watch farther north...

26. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 26 November 8, 2006 02 UTC 3 Aug conditions....where the action ended up

27. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 27 November 8, 2006 Case 3: Upper Midwest severe weather on 3 October 06 Key points: Series of TAMDAR soundings from Minneapolis (MPX) Comparison of 1800 UTC special MPX RAOB with TAMDAR Severe reports nicely occurred within SPC Outlook But many of the reports occurred before the first Severe Thunderstorm Watch was issued at 2015 UTC. Could the TAMDAR soundings in Ohio have helped with issuing an earlier watch?

28. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 28 November 8, 2006 1200 UTC 3 Oct 06 500 mb plot and analysis.

29. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 29 November 8, 2006 12 UTC 3 Oct conditions: Moderate risk over se MN into WI/IA.

30. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 30 November 8, 2006 15 UTC 3 Oct conditions.

31. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 31 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

32. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 32 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

33. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 33 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

34. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 34 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

35. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 35 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

36. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 36 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

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40. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 40 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

41. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 41 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

42. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 42 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

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44. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 44 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

45. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 45 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.

46. AMS 23 rd Conference on Severe Local Storms/2006 – St. Louis Talk 8.1 46 November 8, 2006 00 UTC 3 Aug conditions.