1. Thinking Systemically Or, Why Did That Happen? A Workout … for your Brain The Commonwealth Practice, LLC. Michael Ayers mbayers@earthlink.net 612.823.0139 (h/w) 612.308.0501 (c)

2. 2 A Real Story Cust. Perception of Quality Performance on QA Metrics QA Efforts Alloc. of $ to QA over Marketing Marketing Efforts Performance of Marketing June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

3. 3 A Little More Detail Cust. Perception of Quality Performance on QA Metrics QA Efforts Alloc. of $ to QA over Marketing Marketing Efforts Performance of Marketing RR S O O S S S June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

4. 4 A System Is...  “… a perceived whole whose elements ‘hang together’ because they continually affect each other over time and operate toward a common purpose.” - The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

5. 5 Social Systems are...  “… systems that have purposes of their own, are made up of parts that have purposes of their own, and are parts of larger systems that also have purposes of their own, and these larger containing systems include other systems that have purposes of their own..” - The Democratic Corporation, Russell Ackoff Russell Ackoff June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

6. 6 Terminology - 1  Variables Behavior over time Behavior over time Internal and External Internal and External  Links or Mental Models How does this cause that? How does this cause that? Marketing Efforts Time Marketing Efforts S June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

7. 7 Mental Models  Fill in the blank: As X changes, Y changes because... As X changes, Y changes because... As the performance of Marketing changes, the allocation of dollars to QA over Marketing changes in the opposite direction because … As the performance of Marketing changes, the allocation of dollars to QA over Marketing changes in the opposite direction because … Alloc. of $ to QA over Marketing Performance of Marketing O … we need to put our resources where we’ve seen some return on investment! June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

8. 8  Loops Reinforcing Reinforcing Balancing Balancing  Delays Not about passage of time per se, but about how the passage of time confuses us and removes the cause-effect relationship from view Not about passage of time per se, but about how the passage of time confuses us and removes the cause-effect relationship from view Terminology - 2 June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

9. 9 The Triggering Question  Using a ‘Why’ question ‘Why does variable x exhibit troublesome behavior z?’‘Why does variable x exhibit troublesome behavior z?’ divergencedivergence goal is understanding firstgoal is understanding first we can try any proposed intervention mentally, as a ‘thought experiment’we can try any proposed intervention mentally, as a ‘thought experiment’  Preferred to ‘What’? convergenceconvergence tends to elicit the answer, the solutiontends to elicit the answer, the solution June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

10. 10 The Importance of Being Earnest  Some of the value lies with the product the one-page system model and another page of notes on mental modelsthe one-page system model and another page of notes on mental models reviewable in less than an hourreviewable in less than an hour  Much of the value lies in the process the conversation and exploration, the inclusion and exclusionthe conversation and exploration, the inclusion and exclusion the hours invested by bright people exchanging ideas and perspectivesthe hours invested by bright people exchanging ideas and perspectives June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

11. 11 Appropriate Circumstances  Challenge which is chronic chronic complex complex critical critical  Team which is knowledgeable knowledgeable committed committed vested vested June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

12. 12 The Archetypes  Fixes that Fail  Success to the Successful  Tragedy of the Commons  Shifting the Burden ...several others June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

13. 13 Beyond Events The Level of Events The Level of Patterns The Level of Structure u Move from event to pattern to structure June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

14. 14 Higher Leverage Thinking  Events -- Reactive  Patterns -- Anticipatory  Structure -- Generative June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

15. 15 Interventions  Typically, understanding serves as a step on the way to intervening  Classic interventions: Remove a delayRemove a delay Change a mental modelChange a mental model Focus on a new, more important variableFocus on a new, more important variable Make a key outside variable part of the systemMake a key outside variable part of the system Move up to the next ‘higher’ systemMove up to the next ‘higher’ system June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

16. 16 Supplements: Why Think Anyway?  We can usefully examine how we think along a couple dimensions: the style of the thinking the style of the thinking the purpose of the thinking the purpose of the thinking creativegenerate alternativescreativegenerate alternatives criticalimprovement of processescriticalimprovement of processes analyticexplanationanalyticexplanation systemsunderstandingsystemsunderstanding reflectiveintegrating new experiencereflectiveintegrating new experience June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

17. 17  Data Models Entity Relationship Models Entity Relationship Models “What information will we need?”“What information will we need?”  Process Models Data Flow Diagram Data Flow Diagram “What are the processes performed and how do they interact?”“What are the processes performed and how do they interact?”  Event Models State Transition Diagram State Transition Diagram “What processing is triggered by external events?”“What processing is triggered by external events?”  Systems Model Causal Loop Diagram Causal Loop Diagram “Why is my system behaving this way?“Why is my system behaving this way? A good model answers questions we haven’t thought to ask Causal Loops vs. Other Models June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

18. 18  “The first objective of modeling is to attempt a simplification of the real-world situation through abstraction. Abstraction involves selecting, from all those available, certain prominent features by which the real-world system can be represented meaningfully. A good model must display the same characteristics or properties as the slice of world from which it has been extracted. However, because a model is much simpler, it can be more easily studied and manipulated to yield a solution.” System Design, Modeling, and Metamodeling John P. van Gigch  “A model is a representation of the structure of information within an organization or part of an organization. It has a scope, whose exact boundaries are often difficult to establish.... It is important to be aware of the perspective of a model: i.e., which stakeholders are included.... The intended purpose of a model influences its focus, and the appropriate style and detail.” Information Coordination Richard Veryard Models Generally June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

19. 19 Other Resources - 1  The Quality Story - “Unanticipated Side Effects of Successful Quality Programs: Exploring a Paradox of Organizational Improvement” http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/ADI/ADI.html http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/ADI/ADI.html http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/ADI/ADI.html  “Sustainable Accessibility: A Grand Challenge for the World and for MIT” http://video.mit.edu/watch/sustainable-accessibility-a-grand- challenge-for-the-world-and-for-mit-9538/ The interesting stuff starts at 17:30. It is a sample of what systems thinking looks like in action, presenting a real problem but without any explanation of what the notation represents and omitting certain elements of the notation. http://video.mit.edu/watch/sustainable-accessibility-a-grand- challenge-for-the-world-and-for-mit-9538/ June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

20. 20 Other Resources - 2  The Fifth Discipline by Senge  The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook by Senge et al.  The Dance of Change by Senge et al.  Systems Thinking, Systems Practice by Checkland  Soft Systems Methodology in Action by Checkland and Scholes  Seeing Systems by Oshry  Smart Thinking for Crazy Times by Mitroff  Systems 1 -- An Intro to Systems Thinking by Kauffman  Polarity Management by Johnson  Re-Creating the Corporation by Ackoff  The Goal by Goldratt  Billibonk and the Thorn Patch by Ramsey June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

21. Example from RCLA 21June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.

22. … and the Supporting Mental Models 22June 2015© MMXV The Commonwealth Practice, LLC.