1. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Design Study Jim MacConnell Consensus Technology, LLC 2200 N. 77th St. Seattle, WA 98104-4928 Tel: 206.524.8555 Fax: 206.524.3034 jmac@consensustech.com The Potential of Designing for/with ISHM

2. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Agenda Welcome & Introductions9:00Barthelemy AFRL Overview9:10Cruse ISHM IPT Perspectives10:00Navarra Derisso Beachkofski Study Overview10:30MacConnell ISHM Perspectives 11:00Participants Lunch12:00 ISHM Perspectives (Cont.)12:30Participants Study Discussion3:00MacConnell All Wrap Up & Adjourn4:00Barthelemy

3. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Agenda Welcome & Introductions9:00Barthelemy AFRL Overview9:10Cruse ISHM IPT Perspective10:00Navarra Derisso Beachkofski Study Overview10:30MacConnell ISHM Perspectives 11:00Participants Lunch12:00 ISHM Perspectives (Cont.)12:30 Study Discussion3:00MacConnell All Wrap Up & Adjourn4:00

4. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Integrated System Health Management (ISHM) Design Study Jim MacConnell Consensus Technology, LLC 2200 N. 77th St. Seattle, WA 98104-4928 Tel: 206.524.8555 Fax: 206.524.3034 jmac@consensustech.com Study Overview

5. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Study Overview Define and document The potential impact of an optimized Integrated Health Management System on Design of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) Design of Space Operating Vehicles (SOVs) The technology issues and shortfalls that would need to be addressed to achieve that impact Critical technologies that have the potential to address those shortfalls A business case analysis that provides rationale for: Designing for/with ISHM Prioritization of technical shortfalls Pursuing specific critical technologies The preferred programmatic approach to pursuing those technologies Collaborative Approaches (Consortia, Collaborative Programs) Suite of Conventional CRAD Programs Challenge is Balance between Program/Initiative building and Technical/Business Assessment

6. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Study Schedule OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJun Study Development Define conceptual approach Build collaborative team Define needs/resources Define Benefits Ideal System Definition ISHM <> Design Vision “Business Case” Dev. Identify Critical Elements Define technology pieces Define req’d attributes Identify short-falls Establish Development Plan Prioritize technology needs Develop integration plan Define resource allocation Finalize “team” construct Document, Present and Do Initial Study Results (Technology) Final Study Results (Programmatic) Initial Industry Meeting

7. Integrated System Health Management Design Study WBI SOW

8. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Study Tasking Task 1: Study Development 1.define the specifics of the study with the government ISHM IPT, 2.assemble the collaborative ISHM team that will execute the study under the leadership of the Wright Brothers Institute, 3.define the needed effort for Tasks 2 and 3, and 4.identify the government and industry resources required to execute the study. Task 2: Define the potential impact of an optimized Integrated Health Management System on the design of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs). Assuming an ideal health management capability, which would include available sensors with required performance, durability and reliability, the Wright Brothers Institute and the collaborative ISHM team shall: perform a business case analysis to examine the monetary trades, system performance, mission availability, and procurement size impact for a new acquisition if the design accounted for the benefits of health monitoring and management.

9. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Study Tasking Task 3: Define the potential impact of an optimized Integrated Health Management System on the design of Space Operating Vehicles (SOVs). Assuming an ideal health management capability, which would include available sensors with required performance, durability and reliability, perform a business case analysis to examine the monetary trades, system performance, mission availability, and procurement size impact for a new acquisition if the design accounted for the benefits of health monitoring and management. Task 4: Compile and develop a final report that will include the findings of the study as well as the required R&D to achieve an optimized ISHM. A summary of the findings quantifying the benefits of the proposed ISHM system and documentation of the business decisions made in selecting the attributes of the ISHM system will be included. a list of the technical challenges and critical technologies that need to be further developed or desired. Identification of the required sensors, sensor accuracy and reliability necessary for the OEM to seriously consider its use in an ISHM system. Definition of any shortfalls in computational, inspection and manufacturing capability which may prohibit the implementation of an ISHM system

10. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Overall Objectives To define the overall scope and key research areas of a cross technical directorate effort in ISHM To define and assess cost, performance, and other benefits that may be achieved by including ISHM capabilities in the conceptual design of aerospace vehicles. study how ISHM might influence the design of the vehicles and the system as a whole. quantify the benefits of the “proposed” ISHM system document the business decisions made in selecting the attributes of the ISHM system To identify the critical technology elements required to realize those benefits Define technical challenges and critical technologies that need to be further developed. Identify the required sensors, sensor accuracy and reliability necessary for the OEM to seriously consider its use in an ISHM system. Define shortfalls in computational, inspection and manufacturing capability which may prohibit the implementation of an ISHM system will be defined To establish a roadmap for pursuing those technologies.

11. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Overall Objective To define the overall scope and key research areas of a cross technical directorate effort in ISHM Focus on collaborative development of: Technical focus areas Benefits definition and analysis True INTEGRATION vs. Cross-Functional Development

12. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Define Benefits To define and assess cost, performance, and other benefits that may be achieved by including ISHM capabilities in the conceptual design of the vehicles. Not just “What are the benefits if the design accounted for the benefits of health monitoring and management.” Rather “Would we design differently if the ideal ISHM system existed and what would be the benefits of THAT design/system” Opens up the discussion but presents real challenges

13. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Identify Critical Elements To identify the critical technology elements required to realize those benefits Define technical challenges and critical technologies that need to be further developed. Identify the required sensors, sensor accuracy and reliability necessary for the OEM to seriously consider its use in an ISHM system. Define shortfalls in computational, inspection and manufacturing capability which may prohibit the implementation of an ISHM system will be defined SOAVision ? Sensors Prognostic s Computational Power Real Time Decision Making System Analysis Physics Based Approaches Impedance Methods Pattern Recognition Diagnostics Bandwidth Data Storage System Certification

14. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Prognostics Real Time Decision Making System Analysis Pattern Recognition Computational Power Physics Based Approaches Impedance Methods Diagnostics Sensors Bandwidth Data Storage System Certification Prognostics Real Time Decision Making System Analysis Pattern Recognition Computational Power Physics Based Approach Impedance Methods Diagnostics Sensors Bandwidth Data Storage System Certification Establish development plan To establish a roadmap for pursuing those technologies. Transform the set of technology needs into a prioritized and structured technology development thrusts Integrate the technology thrusts into a set of discreet, manageable but inter-dependent efforts Define the resources needed for those efforts and the appropriate “team” construct to conduct those efforts successfully ? Sensor s Prognostic s Computational Power Real Time Decision Making System Analysis Physics Based Approaches Impedance Methods Pattern Recognition Diagnostics Bandwidth Data Storage System Certification

15. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Study Overview Define and document The potential impact of an optimized Integrated Health Management System on Design of Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAVs) Design of Space Operating Vehicles (SOVs) The technology issues and shortfalls that would need to be addressed to achieve that impact Critical technologies that have the potential to address those shortfalls A business case analysis that provides rationale for: Designing for/with ISHM Prioritization of technical shortfalls Pursuing specific critical technologies The preferred programmatic approach to pursuing those technologies Collaborative Approaches (Consortia, Collaborative Programs) Suite of Conventional CRAD Programs Challenge is Balance between Program/Initiative building and Technical/Business Assessment

16. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Autonomic Maintenance & Logistics Perform Mission In situ mission modification Life extending controls, etc. Usage Data/Learning Algorithms/Neural Nets Payoff: Improved Readiness/ Mission Capability Improved Safety C1C1 C2C2 Material Prognosis (A 1 ) Determine Remaining Useful Life State awareness Fault anal. Life prediction Quantitative Prediction of Future Capability (PROGNOSIS) A Component Prognosis (A 2 ) Determine Remaining Useful Life State awareness Fault anal. Life prediction Quantitative Prediction of Future Capability (PROGNOSIS) A Subsystem Prognosis (A 3 ) Determine Remaining Useful Life State awareness Fault anal. Life prediction Quantitative Prediction of Future Capability (PROGNOSIS) A System Prognosis (A 4 ) Determine Remaining Useful Life State awareness Fault anal. Life prediction Quantitative Prediction of Future Capability (PROGNOSIS) AnAn CAPABILITY: Payoff: Reduced O&S Costs Less Inspection Time Less Maintenance Time Faster Turn Around Capability Ultimately Limited by Existing Design Methodology Dn NEW design philosophy!! C3C3 Vehicle Systems Health Management Ultimate Goal

17. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Questions to be answered What are the key features of the ideal ISHM capability? Know everything about everything? Discrete versus continuum sensing What it means versus what it is Know it now not after Know what to do about it? Intelligent decision making Learning systems What technologies are required to achieve the ideal ISHM capability? Bandwidth Processing power Sensors Integrated Where do we start if our goal is the ideal system? Building block approach?

18. Integrated System Health Management Design Study Would ISHM Impact the Following?  Current Structural Design Philosophy  Reduce FOS?  Lighter Design?  New Structural Design Philosophy  Enable Reliability-based (Probabilistic) Design Approach?  Reduce reliance on structural redundancy for fail-safety, reduces weight and cost?  Structural/Materials Certification Process  Reduce Certification Time?  New Structural Maintenance Procedure  Enable Condition-Based Maintenance? Structural Design Full-Scale Structural Fatigue Test Structural Inspection

19. Integrated System Health Management Design Study ISHM IPT Roles and Responsibility Action Teams and Team Leads Structures M. Derriso VA, VS, ML Propulsion B. Beachkofski PR, ML Avionics M. Wicks SN, ML Controls J.B. Schroeder VA, VS, PR Net Centric Operations and Logistics C. Curtis IF, HE Sub-Systems K. Navarra ML, SN, PR, VA Weapons MN, DE, ML System Health M. Derriso VA, VS, IF External Database