1. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – Overview

2. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Risk  Risk=Damage X Probability or more generally:  Risk=Event X Probability where events may be positive or negative occurrences. or even more generally:  Risks are uncertain events.

3. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Stability Flexibility Management of uncertainty in organizations  Balance between minimizing uncertainty, which creates stability, and coping with uncertainty, which creates flexibility Central planning High standardization High level of automation Little operative freedom Feedforward control

4. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – Overview

5. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Risk perception  Identify relevant events –Restricted cognitive capacity, selective attention –Impact of experience, expectations, needs  Assess probabilities –Handling conditional probabilities –Cognitive heuristics (e.g., availability, anchoring) –Control expectations (e.g., unrealistic optimism) –Impact of assumed benefit –Certainty versus risk as benefit in itself

6. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Current thinking about decision-making: Dual-process models  Naturalistic decision making (Klein, 2008) –Recognition-primed decisions by matching given situation with known patterns (combinations of cues, expectancies, goals, actions) and simulating effects of possible actions  System 1 and System 2 (Evans, 2008) –System 1: intuition (implicit, automatic, low effort, holistic, fast, emotional) –System 2: reasoning (explicit, controlled, high effort, analytic, slow, cognitive)  But many questions remain, e.g., –when to trust which process –when to switch between systems

7. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – Overview

8. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Types of risk communication  Internal: development of shared understanding among risk professionals  external: communicate risks to the general public –information about risks including the general notion of probability and uncertainty –training for appropriately handling risks –creating confidence in institutions responsible for risk assessment and management –involvement in risk-related decisions

9. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Demands for good risk communication  Educating about risks including the general notion of probability and uncertainty  Building trust –timely, concise, unbiased message –competent, empathetic, honest communicators –institutional support and integrity  Involving stakeholders through adequate forms of participation  Promoting dialogue which acknowledges different interests, roles, and expertise  Monitoring effects of risk communication and adapt communicaton continuously

10. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – Overview

11. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Design challenges in automated systems  Avoiding mix of qualitative overload and quantitative underload  Avoiding leftover activities in automation gaps  Securing implicit knowledge  Providing fit between accountability and control

12. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Design for (partial) non-controllability  Giving human operators information about the limits of control  Shifting accountability to system designers and operating organizations for handling limitations of operator control  Gaining control by giving up control ?

13. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – Overview

14. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Minimizing uncertainty  Complex central planning systems  Reducing operative degrees if freedom through procedures and automation  Disturbances as to be avoided symptoms of inefficient system design Coping with uncertainty  Planning as resource for situated action  Maximizing operative degrees of freedon through complete tasks and lateral cooperation  Disturbances as opportunity for development and use of compe- tencies and for system change  Dependence / feedforward control  Autonomy / feedback control  Balance through loose coupling  Motivation through task orientation Higher order autonomy Flexible changes between organizational modes Culture as basis for coordination/integration Coordination via - technical systems - standards/programs - personal instruction Effective with few uncertainties Coordination via - plans - mutual agreement - culture Effective with many uncertainties Management of uncertainty (Grote, 2004, 2009)

15. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Elements of good rules management  Determine desired balance between stability and flexibility  Systematic decisions about types of rules –Process and goal rules promote flexibility, action rules promote stability  Matching competence levels by rule followers and decision latitude in rules  Systematic procedures for developing rules  Participative rule-making  Systematic choices between rules and other coordination mechanisms such as leadership

16. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – Overview

17. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Aim: Linking safety culture to overall organizational culture as well as to characteristics of the material organization beyond directly safety-related activities Socio-technical model of safety culture (Grote & Künzler, 2000)

18. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Example of safety management system: The Dupont model

19. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Safety factor? Risk factor? Safety measures mirror and confirm assumptions about the role humans should play A core element of culture: Defining the role of the human

20. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – Overview

21. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Components of risk management  Risk identification  Risk evaluation  Risk management –reduction –retention –avoidance –transfer  Risk communication

22. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Commonalities and differences in the presented approaches to risk management Swiss ReSwisscomSkyguide Risk identification Risk evaluation Risk manage- ment: -reduction -retention -avoidance -transfer Risk communi- cation

23. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Course evaluation  Did you learn what you expected?  What supported learning / what hindered learning?  Were the topics the right ones?  Was teaching quality sufficient?  Suggestions for improvements?

24. Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology – G. Grote ETHZ, Fall09 Reminder  Prepare report on the topic you selected based on the respective lecture and the answers to your questions during the lecture, assigned reading materials and additional literature obtained by yourself.  Report due Jan. 25, 2010; submit via e-mail to Gudela Grote ggrote@ethz.chggrote@ethz.ch  You are welcome to send an outline of the intended work for the report (ggrote@ethz.ch) to receive feedback on your general direction.ggrote@ethz.ch  The reports will be compiled as a reader and distributed to all participants.