1. Decision Support for the IT Manager John H. Saunders, Ph.D.

2. Agenda n Roles and Decision Processes of the IT Manager n Cognitive Limitations and Biases n Aides/Tools/Techniques for the Decision Maker n Exercise in Technology Selection But first – a quiz!

3. Role of the CIO n Must manage semi-structured and unstructured problems: u Mission u Budget u Politics & approvals u Skills & Training u Contractors u Technology n High Level Project Management All involve evaluation!

4. The process of decision-making n Intelligence n Design, n Choice n Implementation n Unaided decision-making is often reduced to “satisfising” Source: Herbert Simon Tools are available for each stage

5. Do managers need support for making decisions? n Cognitive Limits u Overconfidence u Perceptual Limitations u Framing Limitations n Decision environment: u Number of alternatives is increasing, u Time pressure is increasing, u Need for analysis is increasing, u Remote access is increasing. I’m good at making decisions. I know what I’m talking about.

6. Bootstrapping - decision support Source: Decision Traps

7. Managers have IT support n For the intelligence phase of decision-making: u e-mail, u internet access, u spreadsheets, u Executive Information Systems (EIS), u portals, u dashboards, u data mining, u model management Digital Dashboards Portals Visualization

8. Analysis paralysis/ Information Overload MoreInfo BetterDecision

9. An Effective Decision Process n focuses on what is important, n is logical and consistent, n acknowledges subjective & objective factors, n requires minimal information and analysis, n guides the gathering of relevant information, n is straightforward yet flexible. Source: Smart Choices

10. Technologies for decision support n Technique u Functional Economic Analysis u Cost-benefit analysis u Project management u Linear Programming u Analytic Hierarchy Process n Purpose(s) u resource allocation u business process improvement u capital planning u save time,$ u semi-structured & unstructured problems

11. n How? u Create a Hierarchy of Goals and Objectives u Insert Possible Solutions, Uncertainties, Decision Makers u Evaluate through pairwise or other comparative methods u Synthesize the Results u Perform Sensitivity Analysis n Why? - It provides: u Qualitative and Quantitative Evaluation u Relative comparisons u A Measure of inconsistency u Implemented in software F Expert Choice, Criterium, others u Many proven uses F shows flexibility A Generic Tool - Analytic Hierarchy Process For detail see:http://mdm.gwu.edu/forman/ http://mdm.gwu.edu/forman/

12. Where has AHP been used? n IBM Benchmarking for Baldridge Award n IBM A/S 400 Configuration n Boeing Supercomputer Selection n Digital Outsourcing Vendor Selection n U.S. Army Base Closings n U.S. Navy CVX Platform n Israeli Air Force Fighter Selection n THOUSANDS of other examples http://www.expertchoice.com/testimonials/

13. n Which PDA should the our College adopt, pick any 3, e.g. u Casio Cassiopeia E-15 u Palm Vx u Handspring Visor Deluxe A Challenge Only strict requirement is that the price should be under $400. For information on these options go to CNET (URL below) and click on handhelds http://computers.cnet.com/

14. An Exercise n n Objectives: u To provide a mechanism for understanding the theoretical concepts behind individual decision technology u To provide hands-on experience in the evaluation of a similar issue facing many members of the CIO community n n Methodology: u 1) We will first work individually and create a simple model - selecting a car. u 2) You will then be divided into a group - each containing 3 members. u 3) Your Goal is to: “Select a PDA Tool” u 4) You may receive a demonstration of the Next Generation Tools – e.g. a) Jornada b) Palm c) Handspring u 5) Your group should create four criteria necessary to judge selection u 6) One person in your group, with the aid of the others should start up & create the hierarchial model using Expert Choice, u 7) As a group you would do the evaluation using the WhatIF feature. u 8) If time allows your group will present its results to the class and justify the rationale for its decision

15. Summary n There is a need for improved decision-making, n The environment dictates improved methods. n The information infrastructure is being developed. n Improved decision-making can be an acquired skill.

16. Applications n ERP Software Selection n Steers the Direction for Special Warfare Training n Ford Drives Ahead n AHP Helps San Diego Padres Reach World Series n Streamlines Clinical IS Acquisition n AHP in Environmental Impact Evaluations (EIE) n Decisions in Offshore Development Projects n Measuring and Interpreting Information n Budget Allocation at Woods Hole Fisheries n Selecting Working Fluids - An Engineering Application n Managing National Park Service Resources n Formulating Policies for the Sea of Japan n AHP and CASE n Internal Control Judgments by EDP Auditors n Multicriteria Decision Making with SAS Software n Application of AHP to Quality Management n Budget Allocation n Management in Non-Profit Organizations n Expert Military Judgments n Ranking Architecture Alternatives for the FAA n Using the AHP to Develop and Disseminate Medical Guidelines n Optimizing Quality Costs Through Expert Choice n Selection of Water-Supply Projects Under Drought n Investment Analysis Application n New Bridge to Environmental Application n Choosing the Lunar Lander Propulsion System n Police Officers Evaluation n Downsizing Military Facilities n Patient versus Physician Preferences n Selection of Flood Control Projects n Management Reorganization n Productivity in Software Development n How to Get Funds n Marines Step Smartly n Tactical R&D Project Prioritization n Assessing the Risks of an FAA Emergency Communications n Accounting Research using the AHP n Strategic Planning in the Military n Expert Choice and Strategy Implementation n Selecting Teams to Respond in Medical Disasters n Promoting Shared Health Care Decision Making n Developing a Merit Compensation Plan in an Academic Setting n Prioritizing Telecommunications for Long Range R & D Planning n Easing the Traffic in Istanbul – At What Price? n Deciding Which Navy Master Jet Bases to Close n Customer And Company Values Count in Value-Based Analysis n Banks Place Their Bets on Technology n Fantastico! Says Argentine Congress n Expert Choice software is the choice of B.C. Ferries! n Expert Choice Software Helps Make Green Decisions on Environment and Bottom Line n Inter-American Development Bank Checks Expert Choice Software with Interest and Approval n Expert Choice Software helps PECO make Powerful Decisions n Expert Choice Aids Decision Making to keep Savannah River Site Remediation Flowing http://www.expertchoice.com/testimonials/