1. Chapter 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics 1 Copyright © 2012 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. Permission required for reproduction or display.

2. C H A P T E R Outline 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics 1-1Descriptive and Inferential Statistics 1-2Variables and Types of Data 1-3Data Collection and Sampling Techniques 1-4Observational and Experimental Studies 1-5Uses and Misuses of Statistics 1-6Computers and Calculators

3. C H A P T E R Objectives 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics 1Demonstrate knowledge of statistical terms. 2Differentiate between the two branches of statistics. 3Identify types of data. 4Identify the measurement level for each variable. 5Identify the four basic sampling techniques. 6Explain the difference between an observational and an experimental study. 7Explain how statistics can be used and misused.

4. C H A P T E R Objectives 1 The Nature of Probability and Statistics 8Explain the importance of computers and calculators in statistics.

5. Introduction Statistics is the science of conducting studies to collect, organize, summarize, analyze, and draw conclusions from data. 5 Bluman Chapter 1

6. Why is Statistics Importante? In all of the world around us, there is variation of one form or another. Statistics tries to explain this variation in the following areas of life:  Everywhere. Don't believe me? Examples- page 2. Bluman Chapter 16

7. 1-1 Descriptive and Inferential Statistics variable A variable is a characteristic or attribute that can assume different values. data The values that a variable can assume are called data. population A population consists of all subjects (human or otherwise) that are studied. sample A sample is a subset of the population. 7 Bluman Chapter 1

8. 1-1 Descriptive and Inferential Statistics Descriptive statistics Descriptive statistics consists of the collection, organization, summarization, and presentation of data. Inferential statistics Inferential statistics consists of generalizing from samples to populations, performing estimations and hypothesis tests, determining relationships among variables, and making predictions. 8 Bluman Chapter 1

9. Groop Work For the following statistical studies, name the variable involved, the population of interest, a possible sample, and three possible data values: (a) Average income of working American males. (b) ROHS students’ favorite flavor of ice cream. (c) Percentage of Texans who think the Cowboys will beat the packers. Bluman Chapter 19

10. 1-2 Variables and Types of Data Data Qualitative Categorical Quantitative Numerical, Can be ranked Discrete Countable 5, 29, 8000, etc. Continuous Can be decimals 2.59, 312.1, etc. 10 Bluman Chapter 1

11. 1-2 Recorded Values and Boundaries VariableRecorded ValueBoundaries Length15 centimeters (cm) Temperature 86  Fahrenheit (  F) Time0.43 second (sec) Mass1.6 grams (g) 14.5-15.5 cm 85.5-86.5  F 0.425-0.435 sec 1.55-1.65 g 11 Bluman Chapter 1

12. 1-2 Variables and Types of Data Levels of Measurement 1. Nominal 1. Nominal – categorical (names) 2. Ordinal 2. Ordinal – nominal, plus can be ranked (order) 3. Interval 3. Interval – ordinal, plus intervals are consistent 4. Ratio 4. Ratio – interval, plus ratios are consistent, true zero 12 Bluman Chapter 1

13. 1-2 Variables and Types of Data Determine the measurement level. VariableNominalOrdinalIntervalRatioLevel Hair ColorYesNoNominal Zip CodeYesNoNominal LetterGradeYes NoOrdinal ACT ScoreYes NoInterval HeightYes Ratio AgeYes Ratio Temperature(F)Yes NoInterval 13 Bluman Chapter 1

14. 1-3 Types of Surveys Telephone Survey  Cost efficient, people are more honest  Can’t reach everyone Mailed Questionnaire  Cover more area, anonymous responses  Not many responses/inappropriate Personal Interview  In-depth responses, can be convenient  Interviewer should be trained, more costly Bluman Chapter 114

15. 1-3 Data Collection and Sampling Techniques Some Sampling Techniques Random Random – random number generator Systematic Systematic – every k th subject Stratified Stratified – divide population into “layers” Cluster Cluster – use intact groups, do a census Convenient Convenient – mall surveys 15 Bluman Chapter 1

16. Grewp Work For the following populations, construct a study that involves a random, systematic, stratified, cluster, and convenience sample: RO elementary students ROHS students American collegiate athletes Bluman Chapter 116

17. 1-4 Observational and Experimental Studies observational study In an observational study, the researcher merely observes and tries to draw conclusions based on the observations.  Cars turning  Sit ups 17 Bluman Chapter 1

18. 1-4 Observational and Experimental Studies independent (explanatory) variable dependent (outcome) variableexperimental study The researcher manipulates the independent (explanatory) variable and tries to determine how the manipulation influences the dependent (outcome) variable in an experimental study. confounding variable A confounding variable influences the dependent variable but cannot be separated from the independent variable.  Sit ups  Test scores Bluman Chapter 118

19. 1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics Suspect Samples Suspect Samples  Is the sample large enough?  How was the sample selected?  Is the sample representative of the population? Ambiguous Averages Ambiguous Averages  What particular measure of average was used and why? 19 Bluman Chapter 1

20. 1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics Changing the Subject Changing the Subject  Are different values used to represent the same data? Detached Statistics Detached Statistics  One third fewer calories…….than what? Implied Connections Implied Connections  Studies suggest that some people may understand what this statement means. 20 Bluman Chapter 1

21. 1-5 Uses and Misuses of Statistics Misleading Graphs Misleading Graphs  Are the scales for the x-axis and y-axis appropriate for the data? Faulty Survey Questions Faulty Survey Questions  Do you feel that statistics teachers should be paid higher salaries?  Do you favor increasing tuition so that colleges can pay statistics teachers higher salaries? 21 Bluman Chapter 1

22. 1-6 Computers and Calculators Microsoft Excel Microsoft Excel Microsoft Excel with MegaStat Microsoft Excel with MegaStat TI-83/84 TI-83/84 Minitab Minitab SAS SAS SPSS SPSS 22 Bluman Chapter 1