1. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Lecture 22 of 42 Wednesday, 22 October 2008 William H. Hsu Department of Computing and Information Sciences, KSU KSOL course page: http://snipurl.com/v9v3http://snipurl.com/v9v3 Course web site: http://www.kddresearch.org/Courses/Fall-2008/CIS730http://www.kddresearch.org/Courses/Fall-2008/CIS730 Instructor home page: http://www.cis.ksu.edu/~bhsuhttp://www.cis.ksu.edu/~bhsu Reading for Next Class: Sections 14.1 – 14.2, Russell & Norvig 2 nd edition Planning and Reasoning Under Uncertainty Discussion: Representing Causality

2. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence

3. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence

4. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence

5. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence

6. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Review: Planning and Learning Roadmap Bounded Indeterminacy (12.3) Four Techniques for Dealing with Nondeterministic Domains 1. Sensorless / Conformant Planning: “Be Prepared” (12.3)  Idea: be able to respond to any situation (universal planning)  Coercion 2. Conditional / Contingency Planning: “Plan B” (12.4)  Idea: be able to respond to many typical alternative situations  Actions for sensing (“reviewing the situation”) 3. Execution Monitoring / Replanning: “Show Must Go On” (12.5)  Idea: be able to resume momentarily failed plans  Plan revision 4. Continuous Planning: “Always in Motion, The Future Is” (12.6)  Lifetime planning (and learning!)  Formulate new goals

7. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Adapted from slides by S. Russell, UC Berkeley Review: Conditional Planning

8. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Monitoring and Replanning Adapted from slides by S. Russell, UC Berkeley

9. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Preconditions for Remaining Plan Adapted from slides by S. Russell, UC Berkeley

10. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Replanning Adapted from slides by S. Russell, UC Berkeley

11. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Lecture Outline Today’s Reading: Chapter 13, Sections 14.1 – 14.2, R&N 2e Wednesday’s Reading: Today: Graphical models  Bayesian networks and causality  Inference and learning  BNJ interface (http://bnj.sourceforge.net)http://bnj.sourceforge.net  Causality

12. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Making Decisions under Uncertainty Adapted from slides by S. Russell, UC Berkeley

13. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Bayes’s Theorem: Review Theorem P(h)  Prior Probability of Assertion (Hypothesis) h  Measures initial beliefs (BK) before any information is obtained (hence prior) P(D)  Prior Probability of Data (Observations) D  Measures probability of obtaining sample D (i.e., expresses D) P(h | D)  Probability of h Given D  | denotes conditioning - hence P(h | D) is a conditional (aka posterior) probability P(D | h)  Probability of D Given h  Measures probability of observing D given that h is correct (“generative” model) P(h  D)  Joint Probability of h and D  Measures probability of observing D and of h being correct

14. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Uncertain Reasoning Adapted from slides by S. Russell, UC Berkeley

15. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Bayesian Inference: Query Answering (QA) Answering User Queries  Suppose we want to perform intelligent inferences over a database DB  Scenario 1: DB contains records (instances), some “labeled” with answers  Scenario 2: DB contains probabilities (annotations) over propositions  QA: an application of probabilistic inference QA Using Prior and Conditional Probabilities: Example  Query: Does patient have cancer or not?  Suppose: patient takes a lab test and result comes back positive  Correct + result in only 98% of the cases in which disease is actually present  Correct - result in only 97% of the cases in which disease is not present  Only 0.008 of the entire population has this cancer    P(false negative for H 0  Cancer) = 0.02 (NB: for 1-point sample)    P(false positive for H 0  Cancer) = 0.03 (NB: for 1-point sample)  P(+ | H 0 ) P(H 0 ) = 0.0078, P(+ | H A ) P(H A ) = 0.0298  h MAP = H A   Cancer

16. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Bayes’s Theorem MAP Hypothesis  Generally want most probable hypothesis given the training data  Define:  the value of x in the sample space  with the highest f(x)  Maximum a posteriori hypothesis, h MAP ML Hypothesis  Assume that p(h i ) = p(h j ) for all pairs i, j (uniform priors, i.e., P H ~ Uniform)  Can further simplify and choose the maximum likelihood hypothesis, h ML Choosing Hypotheses

17. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Terminology Introduction to Reasoning under Uncertainty  Probability foundations  Definitions: subjectivist, frequentist, logicist  (3) Kolmogorov axioms Bayes’s Theorem  Prior probability of an event  Joint probability of an event  Conditional (posterior) probability of an event Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) and Maximum Likelihood (ML) Hypotheses  MAP hypothesis: highest conditional probability given observations (data)  ML: highest likelihood of generating the observed data  ML estimation (MLE): estimating parameters to find ML hypothesis Bayesian Inference: Models of Conditional Probabilities (CPs) Bayesian Learning: Searching Model (Hypothesis) Space

18. Computing & Information Sciences Kansas State University Wednesday, 22 Oct 2008CIS 530 / 730: Artificial Intelligence Summary Points Introduction to Probabilistic Reasoning  Framework: using probabilistic criteria to search H  Probability foundations  Definitions: subjectivist, objectivist; Bayesian, frequentist, logicist  Kolmogorov axioms Bayes’s Theorem  Definition of conditional (posterior) probability  Product rule Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) and Maximum Likelihood (ML) Hypotheses  Bayes’s Rule and MAP  Uniform priors: allow use of MLE to generate MAP hypotheses  Relation to version spaces, candidate elimination Next Week: Chapter 14, Russell and Norvig  Later: Bayesian learning: MDL, BOC, Gibbs, Simple (Naïve) Bayes  Categorizing text and documents, other applications