1. Higher Education Financing International Experience: Loan Repayment Burden Lessons for Ireland Bruce Chapman Australian National University

2. Overview.Reminder: basic difference between GGBLs and ICL is collection rules: time OR income contingent;.Repayment burdens of bank loans: meaning, importance and research history (Colombia 2005);.Examples: The US, Vietnam and Thailand;.The Irish hypothetical illustration explained;.RBs for Ireland: Policy issues.

3. Repayment burden = (Loan Repayment)i/(Income)i.Why do RBs matter: consumption hardship and defaults;.What are ICL RBs (max by law: 10% Australia 9% England);.Where did all this come from (Colombia)?

4. US RBs for Low Income Borrowers (10 th and 25 th Quantiles) Males

5. US RBs for Low Income Borrowers (10 th and 25 th Quantiles) Females

6. Data: EU-SILC Data for the calculation of Earnings Profiles and Repayment Burdens come from the EU Survey of Income and Living Conditions This is an annual survey collected by the Central Statistics Office – Earnings data are high quality due to administrative checks carried out by the CSO However, graduates seem to be under-represented in the survey (about 10% of sample, compared to 26% of workers in the QNHS) – So needed to pool data for 2004-2011 to improve sample sizes Annual earnings were converted into 2015 values using quarterly CPI inflation figures For each possible number of years of labour market experience, various quantiles of the real earnings distribution were calculated – the 10 th, 25 th, 50 th, 75 th and 90th

7. An Irish Hypothetical Loan Scheme Described and Illustrated

8. Real and Nominal Repayments: €6000 fees pa, €6000 maintenance pa, 10 years repayment

9. Irish graduate male age-earnings profiles by quantile

10. Irish graduate female age-earnings profiles by quantile

11. RBs for Ireland Male graduates: E6000pa

12. RBs for Ireland Female graduates: E6000pa

13. RBs for Ireland Male graduates, E12000 pa

14. RBs for Ireland Female graduates: €12000 pa

15. RBs and an Irish mortgage loan system: Results and some reflections.As with other countries an Irish mortgage-loan systems will have very low RBs for low income graduates (upwards of 60%+ for many graduates);.An ICL could be designed with maximum RBs of 8- 10%;.Policy issues with an Irish ICL: rates of interest; prices; IRS collection; graduates leaving Ireland with debts.