Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of Efficiency Savings into Energy Models Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group.

Published byBeatrix Heath Modified over 8 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of Efficiency Savings into Energy Models Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of Efficiency Savings into Energy Models Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group Washington, DC; November 10, 2004 22 Pearl Street Cambridge, MA 02139 617.661.3248 bbiewald@synapse-energy.com www.synapse-energy.com

2 Synapse Energy Economics 1.Marginal costs influence behavior 2.The shape of CSE curves matters 3.Unproven efficiency reserves are typically ignored 4.Unproven oil and gas reserves are not ignored 5.Research is needed to characterize technological change and unproven efficiency reserves

3 Synapse Energy Economics Prices for US Electricity, Gas, Oil (nominal $)

4 Synapse Energy Economics Regional Clean Energy Plans These reports are available on the web: www.repowermidwest.org www.poweringthesouth.org www.westernresourceadvocates.org/energy/bep.html

5 Synapse Energy Economics Xenergy, Generic curve

6 Synapse Energy Economics CSE Curve Data Xenergy, Generic curve Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981, US Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State (4) Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia (2) LBL, 1999, US SERI, 1981, US

7 Synapse Energy Economics CSE Curve Data LBL, 1995, US Amory Lovins, 1989, US Optimal, 2003, New York State Xenergy, 2002, California Hewlett Energy Foundation, 2002, California Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW Tellus, 2001, Interior West Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW Tellus, 2001, Utah NYSERDA, 2003, New York State (2)

8 Synapse Energy Economics Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981, US

9 Synapse Energy Economics Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy- Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US

10 Synapse Energy Economics Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW

11 Synapse Energy Economics American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

12 Synapse Energy Economics American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

13 Synapse Energy Economics American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

14 Synapse Energy Economics American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State

15 Synapse Energy Economics Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia

16 Synapse Energy Economics Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia

17 Synapse Energy Economics LBL, 1999, US

18 Synapse Energy Economics SERI, 1981, US

19 Synapse Energy Economics LBL, 1995, US

20 Synapse Energy Economics Amory Lovins, 1989, US

21 Synapse Energy Economics Optimal, 2003, New York State

22 Synapse Energy Economics Xenergy, 2002, California

23 Synapse Energy Economics Hewlett Energy Foundation, 2002, California

24 Synapse Energy Economics Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW

25 Synapse Energy Economics Tellus, 2001, Interior West

26 Synapse Energy Economics Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW

27 Synapse Energy Economics Tellus, 2001, Utah

28 Synapse Energy Economics NYSERDA, 2003, New York State

29 Synapse Energy Economics NYSERDA, 2003, New York State

30 Synapse Energy Economics EIA

31 Synapse Energy Economics EIA

32 Synapse Energy Economics Hydrocarbon Resource Classification

33 Synapse Energy Economics US Oil and Gas (as of 1/1/2002) Crude Oil (billion barrels) Natural Gas (trillion cubic feet) Undiscovered56222 Inferred49232 Unconventional and assoc. gasNA611 Total lower 48 unproved1051064 Alaska2432 Total unproved1301096 Proven reserves24183 Total technically recoverable1541279

34 Synapse Energy Economics Oil and Gas Math Undiscovered +Inferred +Proven reservesGeological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable from know reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions =Technically recoverable reserves Producible using current technology but without reference to economic profitability

35 Synapse Energy Economics IEA Regional Shares

36 Synapse Energy Economics Proven Reserves by Region

37 Synapse Energy Economics Ultimately Recoverable

38 Synapse Energy Economics World Original Resource Base

39 Synapse Energy Economics Annual Production Scenarios

40 Synapse Energy Economics Ultimately Recoverable Oil

41 Synapse Energy Economics Gas Price Forecasts Since 1975

42 Synapse Energy Economics Generic CSE curve corrected

43 Synapse Energy Economics Research Ideas Analysis of CSE curves – past projections v. what actually happened Identify reasons for upturn in CSE price Characterize reasons and quantify to the extent possible – by technology. Apply concepts from oil and gas reserves?

Download ppt "The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of Efficiency Savings into Energy Models Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group."

Similar presentations

Will CO2 Change What We Do?

Will CO2 Change What We Do?
International Association of Oil and Gas Producers Oil and Gas Security of Supply for Europe Athens, 3 rd November, 2005.

International Association of Oil and Gas Producers Oil and Gas Security of Supply for Europe Athens, 3 rd November, 2005.
Quantifying Emission Reductions from Local Government Actions Bruce Biewald Presentation to Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Energy and Air.

Quantifying Emission Reductions from Local Government Actions Bruce Biewald Presentation to Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments Energy and Air.
How the Electric Energy Landscape Has Changed Since the Enactment of SB 221 Changes in the Marketplace and Unforeseen Impacts of Implementation Ohio Chamber.

How the Electric Energy Landscape Has Changed Since the Enactment of SB 221 Changes in the Marketplace and Unforeseen Impacts of Implementation Ohio Chamber.
CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Energy Commission Spring 2006 Price Spike Report Media Briefing August 15, 2006 Joseph Desmond Undersecretary of.

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION California Energy Commission Spring 2006 Price Spike Report Media Briefing August 15, 2006 Joseph Desmond Undersecretary of.
Energy Usage Dr. Ron Lembke. Hubbert’s Peak M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels” (Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum.

Energy Usage Dr. Ron Lembke. Hubbert’s Peak M. King Hubbert, “Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels” (Drilling and Production Practices, American Petroleum.
Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2015 AEO2015 Rollout Presentation Center for.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Annual Energy Outlook 2015 AEO2015 Rollout Presentation Center for.
Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis APEC Energy Working Group Workshop on Unconventional Gas Vancouver,

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis APEC Energy Working Group Workshop on Unconventional Gas Vancouver,
Energy Resources Human Impact on the Environment.

Energy Resources Human Impact on the Environment.
ENERGIZING AMERICA: THE ROLE OF OIL AND NATURAL GAS IN AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor,

ENERGIZING AMERICA: THE ROLE OF OIL AND NATURAL GAS IN AMERICA’S ENERGY FUTURE Rayola Dougher API Senior Economic Advisor,
John C. Felmy Chief Economist American Petroleum Institute

John C. Felmy Chief Economist American Petroleum Institute
Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis US Extractive Industry Overview: Oil, Gas, and Coal United States.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis US Extractive Industry Overview: Oil, Gas, and Coal United States.
Potential Job Creation, Economic Benefits and Revenue Sharing from Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production in the Mid-Atlantic Region Virginia Governor’s.

Potential Job Creation, Economic Benefits and Revenue Sharing from Oil and Natural Gas Exploration and Production in the Mid-Atlantic Region Virginia Governor’s.
The Politics and Economics of International Energy (Spring 2009- E657) Lecture 2 The outlook for oil: peak in sight? Prof. Giacomo Luciani.

The Politics and Economics of International Energy (Spring E657) Lecture 2 The outlook for oil: peak in sight? Prof. Giacomo Luciani.
Www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Federal Forecasters Conference – The Value of Government Forecasts.

U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis Federal Forecasters Conference – The Value of Government Forecasts.
1.  Welcome and introductions ◦ News from members 10:00-10:30  Northwest Gas Association 2011 Outlook 10:30-11:00  What has happened since last meeting.

1.  Welcome and introductions ◦ News from members 10:00-10:30  Northwest Gas Association 2011 Outlook 10:30-11:00  What has happened since last meeting.
Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis)

Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/Production Path Analysis)
BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009 BP Statistical Review Of World Energy June 2009 © BP 2009.

BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2009 BP Statistical Review Of World Energy June 2009 © BP 2009.
Oil Importation Effects on U.S. Economy Muhammad Mustafa Hussain.

Oil Importation Effects on U.S. Economy Muhammad Mustafa Hussain.
1 Alternative Energy Sources Delivered on Behalf of: Bill Pyke Hilbre Consulting Limited October 2012 Copyright and all intellectual property rights retained.

1 Alternative Energy Sources Delivered on Behalf of: Bill Pyke Hilbre Consulting Limited October 2012 Copyright and all intellectual property rights retained.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google