1. 2004 Commercial Space Transportation Forecast for Non-Geosynchronous Orbits (NGSO) John Sloan Federal Aviation Administration Associate Administrator for Commercial Space Transportation (FAA/AST) john.sloan@faa.gov May 20, 2004

2. 2 Introduction Worldwide Commercial Launches NGSO forecast includes payloads open to internationally competed launch services procurement and other commercially sponsored payloads –Payloads that generate launch demand –Typically no secondary or dummy payloads

3. 3 Identify & research all current and proposed NGSO systems Step 2 Step 1 Step 3 Examine FCC licensing status Step 4 Step 5 Step 6 Build Excel-based Traffic Model using constellation configuration and deployment schedule Step 7 Peer Review final text Methodology Review business and financial progress, satellite specifications, launch plans, and overall market status Conduct interviews with companies, the FCC and survey launch providers on near-term manifest Review data with companies, update model, write report

4. 4 Baseline Satellite Forecast 106 satellites 2004-2013; average of 10.6 per year 32% increase compared to last year 80 in 2003, 151 in 2001 forecast 2004-2013 by sector 55% International Scienctific/Other 30% Telecommunications 15% Commercial Remote Sensing 2004 Baseline Satellite Projection

5. 5 Baseline Launch Forecast 51 total launches 2004-2013 Launch Demand is the same as last year’s forecast 51 launches in 2003, 63 in 2002 forecast Average of 5.1 launches per year About 2 medium-heavy launch vehicles About 3 small launch vehicles 2004-2013 by sector Int’l Scienctific/Other 33 launches Remote Sensing 12 launches Telecommunications 6 launches

6. 6 Near-Term Manifest Based on announced satellites as of May 12, 2003

7. 7 Near-Term Satellite Mass Based on announced satellites as of May 12, 2004

8. 8 Baseline Forecast 2004-2013 Near-term satellites and launches higher than far term –Telecommunications (ORBCOMM and Globalstar) –Commercial Remote Sensing Far-term International Scientifice/Other satellites are estimates based on historical activity –Small science satellites appear rapidly, difficult to forecast

9. 9 Trends in NGSO Forecast Return of Telecommunications –More favorable business climate for ORBCOMM and Globalstar Steady customer growth Debt-free operations New, committed private investors –Too early to forecast Iridium, Globalstar second-generation systems –Second-generation system strategies Launch “on need”; replace first-generation satellites when they fail Spread costs over time; earn money while deploying Bulk of market remains international science satellites More multiple-manifest small launches –Russian Dnepr, Cosmos Digital Audio Radio Services tremendous customer growth in the U.S. –Yet no other companies worldwide have announced DARS plans Signs of improving economic outlook?

10. 10 Factors That Affect Launch Demand Strength of U.S. and international economy Investor confidence Government purchase of commercial services Need for replacement satellites Business case changes Corporate mergers Regulatory and political changes Government missions open to launch services competition

11. 11 Historical and Forecast Launch Comparison