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John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP Inland Empire Prosperity... Educational Challenges With It!
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After Losing 8.71 Million Jobs … U.S. Jobs Long Slow Growth - Not Over-Heating
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Petroleum Prices Helps Families In Modest Income Areas
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Value of the Dollar: Helps Imports & Hurts Exports 23.6% 100.0
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Consumer Confidence, 2009-2015 Needed To Help Homes Sales
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California Wage & Salary Employment: A Record Level
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California Job Gains/Losses 2008-2010 -1,066,400 Great Recession 2011-2015 +1,942,491 Up +879,733 82.7% Up Recovery
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Very Rapid Job Growth: 3 Straight Years! 2011-2016p Gained Back 250,502 vs. 142,933 Lost 107,576 More Jobs Will Have Been Created!
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Inland Empire Growth was the 2 nd Largest Absolute Job Gain in California in 2014!
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IE Unemployment Rate: Closing In on the National Level
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The Over-riding Issue: Poverty
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Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier
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Educational Challenge For Adults & Their Children Time To Stop Talking & Do Something About This!
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Public & Private Education Growing As Budgets Heal 2011- 2015 5% of Job Growth K-12 Median Pay$41,557 2011- 2015 1% of Job Growth High Ed Median Pay$60,465
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Health Care
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Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth 2011-2015 12% of Job Growth Median Pay $57,443 2013-2014 Growth of 4,000 Jobs Physicians Other Ambulatory Care Hospitals Residential Care 1,2001,50001,300 4.4%4.7%0.0%5.6%
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Logistics Flow of Goods
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Port Container Volumes Strong Even With January Labor Slowdown
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Fulfillment Warehousing
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E-Commerce Growth Rates Year Over Year by Quarter
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Industrial Construction Four Qtrs. IE Net Absorption: 17.4 million Sq. Ft.
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Net Industrial Space Absorption 17.4 million
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Industrial Vacancy Rate 3.6%
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Logistics Incredibly Important To Inland Empire’s Economic Health 2011-2015 Mary 23% of New Jobs Remember: Every Gold Mine Job Also Funds Another Secondary Tier Job
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PM 2.5: Diesel Pollution -95.6%
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Manufacturing: Should Be A Major Growth Source
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California Manufacturing Job Growth Just 4.0% of U.S. Growth
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CA Is Not Loved By Executives & Entrepreneurs
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Inland Empire Manufacturing Jobs 2011-2015 4% of Job Growth Median Pay $49,138
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Construction: Finally Coming Back
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Notices of Default At Low Levels (878 in June 2015) Negative Equity Has Dropped 4 th Qtr 2009- 1 st Qtr 2015 54.9% to 13.9%
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Home Price Trends 60.2% -27.2% 2014,
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Long Term Competitive Price Advantage Still Exists
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Affordability to Median Income Household I. Empire: 47%-53% LA: 31%-69% Orange: 22%-78%
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Home Sales Volume Finally Some Upward Motion
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Construction Jobs: Finally Growing Median Pay $51,923 2011-2015 11% of Job Growth
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High-End & Office Based Jobs Film & CommercialsEngineeringLegal & Accounting Police & FireHealth CareScience & Information
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Higher End Homes Draw Well Educated Workers $585,199 $427,095 $484,914 UPLAND EASTVALE $468,269 $465,778 $459,000 CORONA $429,667 TEMECULA $344,095$393,603 $568,700 Claremont $357,037$345,243 Loma Linda
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Migration of Educated Workers
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Still Relatively Low Share of BA or Higher
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Diveristy Challenge
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Professionals, Mgmt., Utilities, Information, Mining Slowly Coming Back Median Pay $55,308 2011-2015 4.1% of Growth
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Office Space Net Absorption 475,000
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Office Vacancy Rate 15.8%
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Financial Sectors, Slow Comeback Median Pay $48,010 2011-2015 2% of Job Growth
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Gold Mine Theory Primary Tier Secondary Tier
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Low Paying Job Growth Retail, Consumer & Bus. Services, Hotel, Eat & Drink Amusement, Agriculture, Employment Agency 2011-2015 45% of Job Growth Median Pay $28,475
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Federal, State, Local Government Still Not Recovered Median Pay $57,529 2011-2015 -5% of Job Growth
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I.E. Well Into Recovery 2011-2016p Gained Back 250,502 vs. 142,933 Lost 107,576 More Jobs Will Have Been Created!
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www.johnhusing.com
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