1. Machiel Lamers Machiel.lamers@maastrichtuniversity.nl www.icis.unimaas.nl

2. We work on Sustainable Development tourism, integrated water management, urban development, climate change, health, governance, globalisation, mobility, biodiversity.

3. Our approach is integrated and interdisciplinary: System dynamics and agent based modelling, Qualitative and quantitative evaluation approaches, Monitoring and indicators, Transition, diffusion and innovation processes, Understanding consumer/actor behaviour, Participatory approaches, Scenario analysis and development

4. Some recent projects INTARESE SusATest ERA-net ENHANCE

5. Potential ICIS contribution WP 240: tourism Tourism and climate change: a two-way relation Indicator methods: TCI (dr. B. Amelung) Vulnerability framework and adaptation (A. Moreno) Participatory tourism scenario development and analysis (M. Lamers) Recent post-doc proposal: Adaptive strategies to global environmental change of cruise tourism actors around Svalbard

6. Analyse differences between actors in the way they perceive and adapt to change Mobile vs. Immobile actors International vs. Local actors Land-based vs. Ship based actors Various types of operators –adventure tourism, nature based tourism, culture and heritage Participatory approach

7. Potential ICIS input: WP400 Risk/Sustainability Assessment Integrated Sustainability Assessment –FP6 MATISSE project Indicator selection and ranking –FP6 INSURE project Participatory approach: policy makers and other stakeholders

8. Potential ICIS contribution WP600: Integrated Assessment Tools

9. Methods in IA models scenarios indicators risk-analysis dialogue method policy exercises perspective based methods mutual learning Analytical methods Participatory methods natural scientific basissocial-scientific basis

10. Integration Integrating research(ers) Integrating perspectives of actors Integrating concepts, models Integrating results Recommendations: for whom?

11. Integrated scenario analysis Integrate scenario results from various sectorial studies, economic, environmental and social impact studies, and risk assessments Analyse implications from different perspectives, and different normative standards

12. Forecasting and Backcasting Looking Forward What if... ? Looking Backward How could... ?

13. Integrated Sustainability Assessment A system of interest, with a clear functional, spatial and temporal boundary, characterised by a persistent problem that gives rise to concern and prompts the need for a prospective policy intervention; A sustainability objective, including quality attributes of the system of interests and a set of criteria (or indicators) against which the sustainability of the system of interest can be assessed; Integration of the system of interest into the broader socio-ecological system of which it is part to recognise functional relationships and impacts that spill over the system boundaries; Recommendations to make the system of interest more sustainable and discussion of the projected impacts of the recommendations as well as the “do-nothing” or “business-as-usual” option.

15. PERSPECTIVES analysis (from Cultural Theory) HIERARCHIST - Nature tolerant within limits - People sinful - Partnership - Control - Stability - Risk-accepting INDIVIDUALIST - Nature robust - People self-seeking - Anthropocentrism - Adaptation - Growth - Risk-seeking EGALITARIAN - Nature fragile - People good and malleable - Ecocentrism - Prevention - Equity and equality - Risk aversion

16. HIERARCHIST: ‘Control’ Nature is tolerant within limits Top-down regulation Hierarchy and standards Risk avoiding Authority through expertise and experience EGALITARIAN: ‘Ecology’ Nature is fragile Equity Economy as means Conscious consumption Collective interest Risk aversive INDIVIDUALIST: ‘Economy’ Nature is robust Economic growth Anti-regulation Market-oriented Adaptation Risk = challenge