1. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Scenarios – developing realistic land use and climate pathways

2. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Initial idea (FORECOM proposal) Refine existing models for Swiss Alps by -including long-term forest cover change perspective -knowledge of lands use/climate contribution to past changes Apply models to Polish Carpathians -requires comparability of model foundations (data) in terms of scenarios this implies: -making use of findings from TASK 3-6 -emphasising comparative aspects

3. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Scenarios in existing Swiss land use models 3 Scenarios (old approach) BAU: business as usual, continuation of observed trends Liberalization: no more support for ag production and conservation-oriented ag Extensification: increased support for conservation-oriented ag 2 axis (new approach) Low vs. High intervention Regional vs. Global

4. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Potential modes of intervention Forest policy: restrictions for deforestation, reforestation efforts Ag Policy: support for ag production/conservation-oriented schemes Spatial Planning regional to global Scope of policy Scale of driving forces

5. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Apply CAP scenarios in Switzerland Apply aspects of Swiss ag and forest policy scenarios to Poland Comparative approach

6. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 How to make use of information on long- term forest cover dynamics and drivers of past changes? Forest cover -forest age (e.g., stronger protection of old forests, less strict deforestation regulations or even support to clear recent in- growth) Drivers -Adjustment of land-use suitability maps and transition probabilities based on findings in TASK 6

7. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Include new aspects in scenarios? Energy -Lorenas suitability maps (energy production could prevent in- growth) -changes in wood demand -new infrastucture being built Tourism -higher urbanization pressure in touristic hotspots -touristic infrastructure (transportation,ski slopes) Leakage effects

8. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Brainstorming Scenarios (PL/CH) Relevant aspects/drivers to be considered in the context of forest cover changes Other land use categories involved (urbanization/ag catgories) Is two axes framwork suitable – Adjustments/complementary axes?

9. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Climate Guiding principle: keep it as simple as possible -2 extreme (low/high) and 1 moderate scenario (use new RCPs) -Run different well established RCMs Run logical combinations (argumentation) of land-use and climate scenarios

10. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Climate scenarios Use new CORDEX RCMs based on the IPCC‘s 5th AR GCMs -http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/http://wcrp-cordex.ipsl.jussieu.fr/ -CORDEX: Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment -The whole globe is split into regions, resolution is always 50 km -Two regions are interesting for us: 4. Europe/ 12. Mediterranean -All simulations based on new RCP scenarios.

11. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014 Climate scenarios Proposed procedure -Select few (3-5) RCMs (representing high/mid/low Tave/Prcp) -Select 3 (2.6, 6.0, 8.5) out of 4 RCP scenarios (the low end scenarios are more similar than the high end, see figure below). -Scale the RCM output for these scenarios to the FORECOM study areas Global Mean T predicted in both the 4th and the 5th IPCC Assessment Report.

12. FORECOM Project meeting May 2014