1. www.bea.gov Rapid Estimates of U.S. GDP: BEA’s Dissemination of and Communication Policy for “Advance” GDP Estimates Dave Wasshausen International Seminar on Timeliness, Methodology and Comparability of Rapid Estimates of Economic Trends Ottawa, Canada May 27-29, 2009

2. www.bea.gov 2 Releasing “Advance” Estimate ▪ “Advance” estimates of GDP released toward the end of the first month after the end of the quarter ▪ Schedule of following years GDP release dates are published in the Fall (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/news_release_sort _national.htm)

3. www.bea.gov 3 Releasing “Advance” Estimate ▪ Final GDP review conducted by Director and other senior staff under high-security (literally “lock-up”) the day prior to official release ▪ Only after data are approved and finalized, pre-release of GDP provided to the Council of Economic Advisors for transmittal to the President ▪ Media “lock-up” briefing one hour prior to official release (8:30 a.m.)

4. www.bea.gov 4 Revision Cycles ▪ Revision cycles for BEA’s GDP accounts are well documented:  A Guide to the National Income and Product Accounts of the United States (2006) (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipaguid.pdf)  Measuring the Economy: A Primer on GDP and the National Income and Product Accounts (2007) (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_primer.pdf)http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/nipa_primer.pdf  NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (2008) (http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/NIPAhandbookch1-4.pdf)

5. www.bea.gov 5 BEA’s Data Dissemination Policy ▪ BEA has long-standing procedures that are designed to ensure that data dissemination to all interested members of the public occurs simultaneously ▪ Objectivity of BEA estimates fostered by the publication of methodologies and assumptions that enable replication of the estimates and thereby provide an independent check on the credibility and objectivity of the estimates.

6. www.bea.gov 6 Importance of Transparency ▪ Advance estimate based on partial source data and BEA assumptions ▪ Providing details regarding source data and assumptions is critical ▪ Technical Note and Key Assumptions Table accompany each “Advance” estimate

7. www.bea.gov 7 Published Key Assumptions

8. www.bea.gov 8 Dissemination and Communication ▪ Key source data and assumptions published for "advance" estimates (http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/GDP- SRCE.xls)http://www.bea.gov/national/xls/GDP- SRCE.xls ▪ Providing these details mitigates “surprises” when we eventually publish the preliminary estimate

9. www.bea.gov 9 Technical Note ▪ Provides background information about the relevant source data and estimating methods used to produce the estimates presented in the GDP news release. For example:  Information regarding the “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009” and the “Troubled Asset Relief Program ” and their impact on measuring GDP

10. www.bea.gov 10 Communication ▪ Regular communication with users and the press is key, never-ending process! ▪ Continuous updating through a wide range of media is required:  Explanation of the goal of the early estimates, their accuracy, and the revision process  Transparency of assumptions, source data, and methods:  Explanation of special factors affecting estimates: A “no surprises” policy

11. www.bea.gov 11 Communication ▪ Building consensus among “experts” on the accuracy, integrity, and conceptual soundness of source data and methods. ▪ Publish regular revision studies ▪ Relevant and timely FAQs (e.g. treatment of disasters, economic stimulus acts, federal financial interventions, etc.) ▪ Data users conferences/briefings ▪ Survey of Current Business articles

12. www.bea.gov 12 Conclusion Dissemination and communication goals for “advance” GDP estimates:  Equal Access  Transparency  Well-informed data users