1. IRENE Ninth Storm and the First Hurricane of the 2011 Atlantic Basin Storm Season August 21 to August ? 2011 Dr. Walter Hays, Global Alliance For Disaster Reduction

2. STORM TRACKS OF 2011’s FIRST 9 STORMS: ARLENE – IRENE ( INCOMPLETE )

3. 2011’s NINTH STORM TROPICAL STORM IRENE NAMED ON AUGUST 20 th ; DEVELOPED INTO FIRST HURRICANE OF SEASON ON AUGUST 22nd

4. AUGUST 21: TROPICAL STORM IRENE OVER PUERTO RICO

5. AUGUST 21 FORECAST: TROPICAL STORM IRENE TO BE FIRST HURRICANE OF 2011

6. AUGUST 21: TS HARVEY DYING AND TS IRENE INTENSIFYING TO BECOME FIRST HURRICANE OF 2011

7. ON AUGUST 22, IRENE--- ---caused loss of power for 1 million people, loss of water for 100,000 people, downed trees, damaged homes, forced evacuations and school and office closures in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, but no deaths ---Then, strengthened and became the first hurricane of 2011.

8. (Continued) ON AUGUST 22, IRENE--- --- missed Haiti where 600,000 refugees are still living in tents, but exacerbated flooding and mudslides in the northern region where past storms have killed thousands, and --- worsened conditions for fighting the cholera epidemic that has already killed some 6,000 people.

9. FLOODING: NAGUABO, PR; AUG 22

10. DOWNED TREES: NAGUABO, PR; AUG 22

11. DOWNED TREES: LORIZA, PR; AUG 22

12. PONCE AGOSTO, PR: FLOODING; AUGUST 24 th

13. (Continued) ON AUGUST 22, IRENE--- ---- threatened the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic in terms of storm surge, wind, and rain that would last 15 hours, but…

14. HISPANOLA: BEFORE STORM SURGE; AUG 22 nd

15. HISPANOLA: SWOLLEN NIGUA RIVER SAN CRISTOBAL; AUG 24 th

16. HISPANOLA: FLOODING IN SAN CRISTOBAL (1 DEATH); AUG 24 th

17. TUESDAY, AUGUST 23: Moving west-northwest at 17 kph (10 mph) Irene had maximum sustained winds around 160 km/hr (96 mi/hr) and was centered about 90 km (54 mi) northeast of Puerto Plata in the Dominican Republic at 8 a.m. ET.

18. TUESDAY, AUGUST 23: Along with gusts and heavy rains, Irene is also pushing a 5- to-8-foot (2-3 m) storm surge into the southeastern Bahamas that could reach 7-to-11 feet by the time it reaches the Central Bahamas.

19. The last hurricane to hit the South Carolina coast was Hugo, which smashed into the coast near Charleston in 1989 as a Category 4 storm with 225 kph (135 mph) winds.

20. AUG 23 FORECAST : IRENE COULD BECOME A CAT 4 STORM BY FRIDAY (26 th )

21. AUG 23: FORECAST UNCERTAINTY MEANS IRENE COULD IMPACT ENTIRE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUN (28 th )

22. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER: GETTING THE FORECAST RIGHT

23. AUGUST 23: IRENE AS SEEN FROM THE INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION

24. The potential risk is very high, because it would take just a slight shift in the storm track to the west to make a dramatic change in the economic and health-care impacts of the storm should it make landfall in a highly populated area.

25. AUG 24: FORECAST SHOWS EYE OF STORM SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD

26. BARACOA, CUBA: AUG 24:

27. CAT 3 STORM APPROACHING NW BAHAMAS WITH 115 MPH WINDS: AUG 25th

28. BAHAMAS: NEW PROVIDENCE ISLAND; AUGUST 25 th

29. Hundreds of homes destroyed in Bahamas

30. BAHAMAS: NEW PROVIDENCE ISLAND; AUGUST 25 th

31. EVACUATION UNDERWAY IN NORTH CAROLINA As of Wednesday morning (August 24 th ), Irene intensified to a CAT 3 hurricane, with a high probability of becoming a CAT 4. Residents in some parts of North Carolina were advised to evacuate.

32. WEST PALM BEACH, FL: BUYING SUPPLIES TO COPE WITH IRENE’S WIND; AUGUST 25 th

33. NORTH CAROLINA: EVACUATIONS STARTING FOR REAL; AUGUST 24 th

34. NORTH CAROLINA: EVACUATION OF OUTER BANKS; AUGUST 25 th

35. CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA: NO PREPARATION FOR IRENE; AUGUST 24 th

36. CAPE HATTERAS, NORTH CAROLINA: PREPARATION FOR IRENE’S WIND; AUGUST 24 th

37. NAG’S HEAD, NORTH CAROLINA: PREPARATION FOR IRENE’S WIND; AUGUST 25 th

38. HAMPTON, VIRGINIA: On Thursday, August 27 th for the first time since 2003, the US Navy ordered 27 ships out to sea, including an aircraft carrier, destroyers and submarines, in anticipation of a high storm surge and waves.

39. AUG 25: FORECAST SHOWS EYE OF STORM OVER NEW YORK CITY ON SUNDAY (28 TH )

40. WHAT TO EXPECT AS IRENE CONTINUES TOWARD NEW YORK Rain--flooding Wind—damage to trees, homes, buildings, and infrastructure Tornadoes---possible Storm surge and tides—flooding Beach erosion and mudslides-- irreversible loss

41. NOTE: Because of the counter- clockwise circulation of the rain and wind bands about the eye, it is always SAFEST to be on the WEST side of the storm’s eye

42. WARNING FORECAST UPDATE 8:00 PM NEWS AUGUST 25 th

43. WARNING: Major Urban Cities to be Impacted 50+ Million People at High Risk High Potential for Morbidity and Mortality Potential economic Losses in the Billions Casualty Insurance Premiums to Soar

44. Irene could be the catalyst the insurance industry has been seeking in its quest for across- the-board premium increases, in what already promises to be the costliest year in history for natural disasters around the globe.

45. New York, Connecticut join N.C., Va., Md. and N.J. in declaring state of emergency

46. Hundreds of thousands told to evacuate in NC, MD, NJ, and VA.

47. New York City orders hospitals, nursing homes in low-lying areas to evacuate.