1. Using Social Science to Improve Evacuation Compliance National Hurricane Conference April 18, 2011 Dr. Betty Hearn Morrow

2. It’s All About Feelings Alternate Title:

3. PROS AND CONS OF EVACUATION FROM SURGE ZONES “We’re Not Going Anywhere!" + Always MORE reasons NOT to leave Reasons to not evacuate? − − − − − −

4. Evacuation usually dependent upon risk perception RISK: Is very complex concept Is very complex concept Studied by many disciplines Studied by many disciplines Difficult to communicate in ways that are convincing and lead to good decisions Difficult to communicate in ways that are convincing and lead to good decisions

5. Risk Perception  AFFECTIVE (Feelings, Emotions)  SOCIAL (Relationships, Interactions)  COGNITIVE (Knowledge, memory, reasoning)

6. MIND MAP OF A SURGE ZONE RESIDENT COGNITIVE KNOWLEDGE ABOUT: Hurricanes Forecasts Surge Elevation of Home Etc. SOCIAL Relationships Interactions Networks “What are they going to do?” AFFECTIVE FEELINGS ABOUT: Hurricanes Forecasts Home safety Travel, Etc. RISK EVACUATE? Sees world as safe or scary Self efficacy Surge is like a flood World View Personality Traits Mental Models GO?

7. UNDERSTAND the Hazard Risk messages need to be vivid with examples and illustrations One cubic yard of sea water = 1728 pounds Hard to visualize the power of surge One foot can sweep car off road Difficult to stand upright in 6” Check out the new surge website at NHC http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurg e/ssurge_resources.shtml http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurg e/ssurge_resources.shtml

8. Understand Vulnerability Lots of evidence that coastal residents do not understand their vulnerability to surge and flooding

9. Coastal Georgia Hurricane Behavioral Study USACE and FEMA thru Dewberry. Betty Morrow, SocResearch Miami and Hugh Gladwin, Institute for Public Opinion Research Comparison of Respondents’ Home Elevation with Their Answer to “How likely do you think it is that your home would ever be flooded as a result of a hurricane or storm?”

10. Of those in Cat 1 zone, about one third are each of these: Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not very concerned Hampton Road VA Evacuation Study. 2010. Morrow & Gladwin through Dewberry for FEMA and USACE Concern vs. Vulnerability

11. Lazo, Jeff. November 2010 Survey of Hurricane Vulnerable Public – North Carolina to Texas Risk Perception vs. Surge Exposure

12. UNDERSTAND Vulnerability Risk messages need to be personal and dramatic Inundation maps Illustrations of various depths of water Photos of familiar sites under water

13. Coastal Inundation Toolkit CanVis Visualization Software NOAA Coastal Services Center Digital Coast Resource www.csc.noaa.gov/inundation

14. Personalize The Message Pinellas County Florida Flyer

15. UNDERSTAND the Forecast Forecast information presented in understandable ways Difficult to take seriously event which probably won’t happen 1 in 10 has stronger impact than 10% Understandable text Graphics

17. BELIEVE the Forecast Trust is important in risk communication ~90% trust their local TV* Next most important source is national TV, followed by social networks** National Hurricane Center has high approval rating Local emergency manager? Local officials? *Hurricane Charley Behavioral Analysis. 2005. US Army Corps of Engineers ** Hurricane Rita Behavioral Survey. 2007. Peacock et al.

18. FEEL the Risk Information not enough Need to arouse emotions Loved ones may be in danger Need to protect them Scenarios Visual Images of People

19. People Make it Real

20. Peacock, W., B.H. Morrow and H. Gladwin. 1997. Hurricane Andrew: Ethnicity Gender and the Sociology of Disaster. London: Routledge.

21. Want to Leave Believe the forecast Believe it applies to them Not willing to accept the risk Others are leaving Worried enough to overcome inertia

22. ABLE to Leave Have necessary resources to evacuate: Transportation Transportation Place to go Place to go Know how to get there Know how to get there Cash for gas, food, etc. Cash for gas, food, etc.

23. “Let’s Get Out of Here!" PROS AND CONS OF EVACUATION FROM SURGE ZONES + − UNDERSTAND Hazard BELIEVE Forecast FEEL Unsafe Don’t ACCEPT the Risk WANT to Leave ABLE to Leave + + + + + Need to evoke strong FEELINGS to overcome the reasons NOT to leave

24. betty@bmorrow.com Acknowledgements: Hugh Gladwin Jeff Lazo Jamie Rhome