1. Shipping Cycles and the China Factor 2008.4

2. Long Term Cycles 1973 1 st Oil Crisis 2001 Dot.com crisis 1979 2 nd Oil Crisis 1991 Financial Crisis 1997 Asia Crisis Seaborne Trade Volume World GDP Seaborne Volume Correlate with World Economy

3. The Trend of BDI/BFI BDI The Micro-Mechanism Behind

4. BDI Fleet Growth, Volume Growth Source: Clarkson The Micro-Mechanism Behind The Growths of Dry Cargo and Bulk Fleet

5. In Historic Perspective World Sea Trade Last 7 years trade grew at 4.9% pa The pre 1980s trend 1983~2002 growth 3.4% pa The Seaborne Trade Volume Showing Extreme Changes In the late 1990s China started to grow much faster than before. Sea trade fails due to 1979 Oil crisis 800 Mt Asia Crisis in 1997.com Crisis in 2001 Source: Clarkson

6. Tankers Bulk carriers Gen cargo World Sea Trade A. Surplus of shipping capacity B. Shortage of shipping capacity BARS SHOW WORLD FLEET & LINE SHOWS TRADE 20 years of under-investment in ships 1970s Bubble Deliveries Source: Clarkson, Martin Stopford

7. Source: SSY Ton-Miles Grows Faster than Volume %

8. % China GDP Growth

9. China Steel Production Per capita steel consumption now about 340 kg, which is close to European levels 500 Mt

10. World Iron Ore Imports and China’s Share M Tons

11. China’s Iron Ore Imports Explains the Ton-Miles Growth M. Ton-miles

12. China’s Coal Trade M Tons

13. China’s Crude Oil Trade

14. Nov. 6-7, 2008 Dalian, China Jointly-organized by Detailed information at: www.shippingsummit.com www.shippingsummit.com World Shipping (China) Summit 2008 Navigating Cross Currents Expect to see you at

15. Thank you for your attention! Contact Information: Xiao Lie COSCO R&D Xiaolie@cosco.com Tel: 0086 10 66492615