1. European Apple & Pear Outlook 2012 Philippe Binard World Apple and Pear Association (WAPA) www.wapa-association.org

2. Plan of the presentation Forecast 2012 EU 27 main trends Review by States and regions : Europe at large Southern Hemisphere & global balance Market outlook 2012/2013 ( EU-27)

3. EUROPEAN APPLE FORECAST 2012: MAIN TRENDS EUROPEAN UNION (EU-27)

4. European 2012 crop forecast EU-27 (EU-27 population = 501.1 mln) EU Production (20 States) set to be at 9.705.000 T + ca 100.000 T in non- participating States countries (7) 2012 production (ranked 8 th in decade overview ) – decade av = 10.5 Mln T Forecast = optimistic view? Early spring followed by several frosts Wet spring Drought in several regions Heavy summer hails storms Normal harvest date Balanced fluctuations still possible ( up Poland down elswhere )

5. Production by region2011SHARE2012SHAREVAR IN % Western EU6.90454,06%5.56047,51%-6,55% Eastern EU3.76029,44%4.14535,20%5,76% Eastern non EU2.10616,49%2.03617,29%0,80% Total12.770 11.741 2012 crop forecast EU-27: an overview PL, SK, CZ, HU = increasing production in 2012 PL = only country above YAGO and 3 years average + Russia, TK,..... Grd total Europe cont. > 16 Mln T

6. 2012 crop forecast EU-27 – overview by varieties Varieties in 000 T2012 Golden2.213 Other varieties1.295 Gala1.061 Idared863 Red Del556 Jonagold466 Shampion410 New varieties378 Elstar334 Jonagored311 Granny305 Braeburn266 Fuji222 Gloster176 Jonathan164 Cripps pink150 Reinette70 Cox orange68 Imperatore63 Boskoop59 Bramley57 Lobo50 Cortland40 Red Jonaprince38 Pinova37 Annurca35 Stayman13 Spartan6

7. APPLE FORECAST 2012: STATES/REGIONAL REVIEW EUROPE AT LARGE

8. Poland (population 38 mln) – N°1 EU producer: 2.8 Mln T up by 12% compared to last year. Idared moving from 420.000 T to 570.000 T (+38%) and Gloster (+25%) – Affected by climatic conditions, but new plantings bearing new fruit year on year and new storage capacities – Spring delay but flowering was hot and short – mid May, some frost – July was hot and with storms, hail damages => Increase percentage going to processing, more volume going to processing than to fresh +12 % +36% 2.800.000 T Towards 3 Million ?

9. Italy (population 60 mln) – Production below 2 Mln T, one of the smallest crops, while last year was the largest crop of the decade (frost on 17 April up to -4°C, unfavourable blossoming, hail...) – Russeting present due to cold climate during fruit setting but not widespread – 1 week later on 2011 – back to normal in 000 T20112012VAR Alto Adige1180998-15% Trentino504449-11% Other regions606540-10% TOTAL22901987-13% - 11%- 15% - 10% 1.987.000T

10. France (population 64 mln) – Significant frost damages and cold/rain during blossoming Most affected Limousin (impact on golden), part of north regions (impact on Boskoop and Jonagold) Intermediate situation: South West, Loire, Alps (ca -15 to -20%) Not affected: Provence and Languedoc will be normal => start of French season quick off under normal conditions with Gala and Pink lady, less affected – Calendar of harvest to start as normal in South France – Sufficient volume for domestic market in 000 T20112012VAR France1.7011.169-31% TOTAL1.7011.169-31% 1.169.000T

11. Germany (population 81 mln) – Production at 933.000 T down by 2% to last year, differences by region. Bodensee not N° 1 region. – Several nights with frost in spring, affecting a.o. Elstar (-16%) and Jonagold/Jonagored (-11%) – Some severe recent damage in Bodensee affecting 20.000 to 30.000 T – all varieties affected in Bodensee except Red Jonaprince and Topaz – On-going increasing surface of Kanzi - 18 % - 22 % - 7 % + 2% other + 24% 933.000T

12. Alpine countries (population 16.3 mln) Austria (population 8.3 mln) – Frost, hail and storm leading to severe punctual damages and reduction by 23% of production to 153.000 T – 3 frosts on 01/04, 09/04 and 18/05 – some orchards 100% damaged – Braeburn and Gala less affected (only 15% less) Switzerland (population 8 mln) – Production at 146.000 T down by 6% to previous year in 000 T20112012VAR Switzerland155146-6% Austria199153-23% TOTAL354299-16% - 23% - 6% 146.000T 153.000T

13. Benelux (population 27.3 mln) Belgium (population 10.8 mln) – The lowest crop of the decade by far: -30% at 212.000 T, also ongoing decrease of apples orchard (3.6%) – Warm in January followed by extreme cold in February (-16°C), March dry and April rainy and cold with some night frost on 31/03 and 01/04, June rainy – Fruit size to be normal if enough rain in July and August, harvesting at normal date The Netherlands (population 16.5 mln) – Crop significantly down by 25% to reach 313.000 T – Some difference by regions, the South being overall better and less affected by short but heavy cold period. In North, damage up to 80% – For club varieties, higher acreage in production will compensate the lower productivity in 000 T20112012VAR Belgium305212-30% Netherlands418320-23% TOTAL723532-26% - 25% - 30% 212.000T 313.000T

14. UK and Ireland (population 66.4 mln) UK (population 62 mln) – Production down by 28% at 163.000 T – All varieties are declining (25% or more, apart from Gala, -3% at 38.000 T). Expected large volume to processing (up to 45% compared to 39% last year) – Temperature well below average except 10 days in mid May. West Midlands affected by frost early May and hail. Summer: wet and cold. Conditions ideal for scab and mildew and spray difficult given regular rain and wet conditions in orchards – Harvesting back to normal but 3 weeks later than last year Ireland (population 4.4 mln) – No industry data and official census only every 5 years – Production around 40.000 T in 000 T20112012VAR UK226191-15% Ireland40 0% TOTAL266231-13% - 28% 40.000 T 163.000 T

15. Nordic and Baltic (population 31.9 mln) Denmark (population 5.5 mln) – Crop to 2010 at 18.000 T – Elstar main variety, but down by 20%, Jonagored affected up to 30%, Cox orange reduced by 15% Sweden (population 9.3 mln) – Crop at 14.000 T – Mixed orchard of new varieties (up by 33%) while all other are down Latvia (population 2.2 mln) – Poor flowering leading and frost in end of May lead to a smaller crop of 7.000 T out of which 50% for processing Lithuania (population 3.3 mln) – Crop at 39.000 T Some new plantings with Lithuanian varieties – Heat wave end of April (29°C) and some hail damages – Summer variety: pick with one week of delay in 000 T20112012VAR Denmark2018-10% Sweden1714-18% Lithuania4939-20% Latvia87-13% Estonia660% Finland440% TOTAL9478-17% - 18% - 10% - 13% -20% 14.000T 18.000T 7.000T 39.000T

16. Iberian Peninsula (population 55.6 mln) Spain (population 45 mln) – Production at peak low of the decade at 373.000 T, -26% – Low temperatures and rainfall during flowering – Catalonia affected by severe hail on 5 & 27 July in Lleida – Girona keeps growing: 37% of Catalonia production – Season, delay by 5-7 days Portugal (population 10.6 mln) – Production down by 15% at 225.000 T on 20.205 Ha – Impact of drought (44% of orchard under extreme drought and 30% in severe drought), poor pollination and fruit set in 000 T20112012VAR SPAIN507373-26% Portugal265225-15% TOTAL772598-22% - 15% - 26% 225.000T 373.000T

17. Central Europe (population 25.9 mln) Hungary (population 10 mln) – Despite increasing volume to 418.000 T, crop remained below potential (frost in Easter @-10°C) - Jonathan, Jonagold and Idared are the most affected – % to industry decrease from 53% to 51% but volume is larger (213.000 T) Czech Republic (population 10.5 mln) – Production move to 101.000 T despite spring damage and below average temperatures – 5 days early than average Slovakia (population 5.4 mln) – Production at 36.000 T higher than av & last year in 000 T20112012VAR Czech Rep7910128% Slovakia33369% Hungary30141839% TOTAL41355526% + 28% +9% +39% PROGNOSFRUIT 2013 PRAGUE, 8 AUGUST 101.000T 36.000T 418.000T

18. South East Europe (population 40.2mln) Greece (population 11.3 mln) – Smaller crop than final 2011 output by 2% => Fluctuation of climatic conditions with reduced flowering and poor fruit setting in some areas – Expected normal sizing, harvest could be up to one week earlier than last season – Orchard evolution: declining local varieties but also for Granny and Jonagold Romania (population 21.4 mln) – Slight decrease by 2% at 401.500 T – Higher volume to processing 28% v 25% => total fresh volume 289.000 T v 309.000 T last year – Main varieties: Jonathan and Golden ca 105.000 T each – No spring frost, some drought in June and July – Expected normal sizing in 000 T20112012VAR Greece305298-2% Romania412402-2% Bulgaria40 0% TOTAL757740-2% 298.000 T 402.000T -2% 40.000T

19. Balkans (population 24.2 mln) Slovenia (population 2 mln) – 45.000 T, -38%, the smallest crop of last 10 years due to climate (frost). Limited number of new plantings – Normal harvesting date. More to processing despite smaller crop (from 20 to 30%) Croatia ( population 4.2 mln) JOINING EU 1 JULY 2013 – Frost in April and May, hail in June, high t° in July => lower crop at 59.000 T – Harvest a few days earlier. Reduced share for processing (down from 42% to 30%) Macedonia (population 2 mln) – Large crop, no frost, 7 days delay over 800m, large size. Less volume to processing (13% v 15%), Idared = 72% of production. Serbia (population 7.1 mln ) – Small crop 221.000 T, Idared main affected variety -35%, other -6% Bosnia (population 3.8 mln) – Significant deficit of production (-63%) to 17.322 T due to frost in 000 T20112012VAR Slovenia7345-38% Bosnia Herz4617-63% Croatia8859-33% FYROM1281409% Serbia260221-15% TOTAL595482-19% - 15% - 33% - 38% - 63% +9% 45.000T 59.000T 221.000T 17.000T 140.000T

20. EU Eastern neighbours (population 274.2 mln) Belarus (population 9.5 mln) – Lower crop at 171.000 T due to frost damage affecting mainly new continental varieties. Moldova (population 3.5 mln) – Severe drought reducing productivity by 20% but compensated by new plantings (+15%): crop down by 5% in total Ukraine (population 45.7 mln) – Traditional frost damages avoided + new areas with intensive orchard (+1%) combined with increased yield (+4%) – total surface: 106.000 HA Russia (population 141.9 mln) – Industry statistics at 1.622.000 T on 250.000 HA Turkey (population 73.6 mln) – Ideal blossoming conditions, little hail and no droughts – Production slightly up by 1% - 5% - 8 % +4% +8% in 000 T20112012VAR Belarus180171-5% Moldova350322-8% Ukraine105410964% Russia150016228% Turkey235223651% TOTAL543655763% +1% 1.622.000T 1.096.000T 171.000T 322.000T 2.365.000T

21. No stocks either from AJC - strong market Apples for processing in selected countries estimated up by 28% despite lower crop EU Market outlook 2012-2013: demand for processing 2011 2012 VAR Vol CountryProduction%ProcessedProduction%Processed Poland2.5000,451.1252.8000,551.54037% Romania4110,251034010,281129% Hungary3010,531604180,5121334% Uk2260,39881910,4586-2% Macedonia1280,15191400,1318-5% Croatia870,4237580,317-52% Lithuania490,629390,623-20% Bosnia herz460,157170,23-51% Latvia80,547 4-7% Total3.756 1.5714.071 2.01728%

22. Europe in summary -22% -31% -28% -26% -2% -13% -16% -18% -2% - 17 % + 1 % +4% +8% +12 % +33% -8% - 5 % APPLES PRODUCTION EUROPE : 16.1 Mln T) (Population Europe: 808.6 Mln)

23. Southern Hemisphere & tentative 2012 global balance Southern hemisphere: Berlin WAPA forecast -3% SHAFFE Apple quantities (T) Country Up to week EU USA & Canada World Export potential Year20112012%12/1120112012 %12/1 120112012 %12/1 1 Argentina2845.19131.106-31%1.6373.12791%119.77988.957-26%182.500 Brazil3640.49754.26934%25428713%52.60958.93912%35.000 Chile33172.514134.052-22%106.847135.00726%738.979649.815-12%806.000 New Zealand35145.566117.523-19%38.01737.667-1%288.366274.318-5%300.096 South Africa36114.959118.6023%2.4172.072-14%251.155269.4717%321.067 TOTAL 518.727455.552-12%149.172178.16019%1.450.8881.341.500-8%1.644.663

24. Southern Hemisphere & tentative 2012 global balance Global overview 2012 in 000 T20112012VAR EU-2710.6639.739-9% Other Europe5.8535.9482% North America5.2644.322-18% China33.00033.5002% South Hem5.6395.457-3% Total60.41958.966-2% -18 % -9 % -2 % + 2%

25. EUROPEAN PEAR FORECAST 2012: MAIN TRENDS EUROPEAN UNION(EU-27)

26. 2012 crop forecast Production dramatically down to less than 2 mln T, the lowest in the past decade 2012 production is 30% down last year and 26% down the last 3 years average YearProd in T 20062.696 20112.629 20092.602 20022.589 20042.582 20052.562 20072.542 20032.419 20102.275 20082.165 20121.844 Average decade2.446 Production for 2012 is forecasted to be at 1.844.000 T

27. 2012 crop forecast – overview by MS Up CZ HU GR Down All other

28. 2012 crop forecast – overview by varieties …. All varieties are lower this year !

29. PEAR FORECAST 2012: STATES/REGIONAL REVIEW EUROPE AT LARGE

30. ITALY Italy : – Production record low – Large physiological drop – Abate, one of the most significant reduction (-55% ) – Some impact of the earthquake

31. South East Greece – Increase of the production to 43.000 T due to good climatic conditions prevailing from spring to June – No major concerns with psylla, which however is not the main cause for the lower crop – Size to be on average – Season to start one week earlier than last year – Krystalli pear represent 40 % of production Romania – 26.000 T, down 8% from 2011 – No late frost but soil drought in June and July – 13 % of production for processing – Normal sizing – No evolution of orchard

32. Spain – Production at 329.000 T (=new historic low) – All regions are decreasing except Murcia - Catalonia remains leader - affected by hail in July – On-going decline of Blanquilla (now 52.000 T compared to 200.000 T 10 years ago) – Conference larger variety at 136.000 T – Ercolini is the only “stable” variety Portugal – Data are those of Pera Rocha Association – set at 109.000 T a decline by 48% to last year – Low temperature during fruit set, low number of fruits per tree. Physiological drop normal – Medium size South West

33. Benelux Belgium – Pear crop at 254.000 T. Complex climatic conditions in spring and summer – Conference is halted in its on-going development at 237.000 T – Some increase of pear orchard : + 3% ( more on conference representing 7.351 HA out of 8.579 HA) –Durondeau is decreasing by 5% – Picking normal, 2 weeks later than 2011 The Netherlands – Together with 2008, one of the lowest crop ever at 198.000 T : down by 41% – Conference is set this year at 165.000 T down from peak 260.000 T, while Doyenne the second variety is most affected with a decline of production by 55% T – Differences in size, weak settings

34. UK and France France – Production at 123.000 T down by 30% – Williams and Guyot (both at 35.000 T) to be the two main varieties followed by Conference (19.000 T) – All affected by drop, respectively by 34%, 29% and 24% UK – Volume at 28.000 T, 12% down from last year and 3 year average – Season time is 3 week later – Concern about russet – Difference in size ; No homogeneity – Larger % of crop expected to go to processing (32%)

35. Qualitative remarks EU-27: Central and East Poland – While recovering from last year peak low, production remain moderate at 55.000 T – Orchard dominated by Conference (35.000 T) Germany – Low crop similar to small level of 2010 and 2008: Production forecasted at 38.000 T – Conference (9.000 T) and William BC (4.000 T) to be the main varieties Hungary – As with apples, slight recovery at 26.000 T, lower % going to industry (32%) but in total higher volume (8.100 T) – Main variety is Bosc (8.500 T), followed by Williams (4.700 T)

36. 2012 forecast – other NH countries & global overview Other European regions: -6% USA down by ca 8% to total production but availability for fresh to be up by 9% Winter pear up by 11% at 315.000 T; Williams / Bartletts continue to increase (up by 12%) at 128.000 T. Summer pears up 3% at 6.600 T Smaller size due to cold wet spring – good colour. Delay in harvest by a week to 10 days Organics = 3% of overall production Southern Hemisphere was down by 10% Global supply 2012 for selected countries down 4%

37. SH 2012 export SHAFFE / WAPA forecast – Berlin February 2012 and trade development SHAFFE Pear quantities (T) Country Up to week EU USA & Canada World Export potential Year 20112012%12/1120112012%12/1120112012%12/11 Argentina28 132.36475.509-43%38.23735.082-8%276.454224.985-19% 341.700 Chile33 49.20946.789-5%18.24115.670-14%125.173118.579-5% 134.031 New Zealand35 1.3331.038-22%1.9111.341-30%4.2813.805-11% 4.950 South Africa36 100.79289.602-11%4.2675.52529%155.051150.965-3% 175.279 TOTAL 283.698212.938-25%62.65657.618-8%560.959498.334-11% 655.960

38. EU apple and pear supply 2012 Total supply EU apple and pears, down 13% compared to 2011

39. www.wapa-association.org www.prognosfruit.eu philippe@freshfel.org THANKS