1. The Making of the Drought Monitor

2. The U.S. Drought Monitor Since 1999, NOAA/CPC and NCDC, USDA, and the NDMC have produced a composite drought map--the Drought Monitor—each week with input from numerous federal and non-federal agencies

4. A partnership between the NDMC, USDA and NOAA’s CPC and NCDC A partnership between the NDMC, USDA and NOAA’s CPC and NCDC Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC’s, SC’s, federal/state agencies, etc.) Incorporate relevant information and products from all entities (and levels of government) dealing with drought (RCC’s, SC’s, federal/state agencies, etc.) The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and provides a general up-to-date summary of current drought conditions across the 50 states and Puerto Rico The Drought Monitor is updated weekly and provides a general up-to-date summary of current drought conditions across the 50 states and Puerto Rico The Drought Monitor Concept

5. A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map A consolidation of indices and indicators into one comprehensive national drought map The intent is to provide an assessment product NOT a forecast ! The intent is to provide an assessment product NOT a forecast ! Trying to capture these characteristics: Trying to capture these characteristics:  the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity)  spatial extent  probability of occurrence  impacts The Drought Monitor Concept

6. Integrates daily rainfall reports from thousands of stations Integrates daily rainfall reports from thousands of stations Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks Uses weekly feedback from local experts to reflect impacts and for “ground truthing” the product Uses weekly feedback from local experts to reflect impacts and for “ground truthing” the product The Drought Monitor— A new way of looking at drought in the U.S.

8. Original Objectives “Fujita-like” scale “Fujita-like” scale

9. U.S. Drought Monitor Map Drought Intensity Categories D0 Abnormally Dry D1 Drought – Moderate D2 Drought – Severe D3 Drought – Extreme D4 Drought – Exceptional

10. Original Objectives “Fujita-like” scale “Fujita-like” scale Identify impacts (A, W, F) Identify impacts (A, W, F)

11. Original Objectives “Fujita-like” scale “Fujita-like” scale Identify impacts (A, W, F) Identify impacts (A, W, F) Assessment of current conditions— NOT a forecast! Assessment of current conditions— NOT a forecast!

12. Original Objectives “Fujita-like” scale “Fujita-like” scale Identify impacts (A, W, F) Identify impacts (A, W, F) Assessment of current conditions— NOT a forecast! Assessment of current conditions— NOT a forecast! A general assessment—not intended to capture all local details A general assessment—not intended to capture all local details

13. Original Objectives “Fujita-like” scale “Fujita-like” scale Identify impacts (A, W, F) Identify impacts (A, W, F) Assessment of current conditions—NOT a forecast! Assessment of current conditions—NOT a forecast! A general assessment—no local details A general assessment—no local details Incorporates local expert input Incorporates local expert input

14. Monitor Development Monday Draft map sent to local experts Draft map sent to local expertsTuesday Local expert feedback Local expert feedback Draft map sent to local experts Draft map sent to local experts Draft text sent to local experts Draft text sent to local expertsWednesday Local expert feedback Local expert feedback Final map and text sent to local experts Final map and text sent to local expertsThursday Map and text released to public on website Map and text released to public on website

15. Original Objectives “Fujita-like” scale “Fujita-like” scale Identify impacts (A, W, F) Identify impacts (A, W, F) Assessment of current conditions—NOT a forecast! Assessment of current conditions—NOT a forecast! A general assessment—no local details A general assessment—no local details Local expert input Local expert input As objective as possible As objective as possible

16. Creating the Drought Monitor Interagency Partners: NWS/CPC USDA/JAWF NDMC Outside Experts: USGS State Climos RCCs NWS Hydros Posted on the Internet every Thursday morning Newspapers TV Stations Government officialsPublic (http://enso.unl.edu/monitor/)

17. USGS Streamflow CPC Daily Soil Model Satellite Veg Health 30-day Precip. USDA Soil Ratings Principal Drought Monitor Inputs Palmer Drought Index

21. USGS Streamflow April 19, 2002

22. Drought Severity Classification

23. Blending it all together…the Objective Blend of Drought Indicators (OBDI)

24. Current Operational OBDI First attempt at operationally integrating multiple indicators in an automated weekly update using a percentile ranking method Combines and weights the 30-day precipitation (1/6), the Modified Palmer Drought Index (5/12), and the CPC Soil Moisture (5/12)

26. A New Breed of Experimental Blends “The Short, Long, and Unified of It”

27. The New Blends Produced weekly using CPC’s real- time daily and weekly climate division data and NCDC’s monthly archive of indices for 1932-2000 All parameters are first rendered as percentiles w/ respect to 1932-2000 data using a percent rank method

28. Indices used in the Blends and their Weights: Short-term Blend: 35% Palmer-derived Z-index; 25% 3-month precipitation; 20% 1-month precipitation; 13% CPC soil moisture model; and 7% Palmer (Modified) Drought Index Long-term Blend: 30% Palmer Hydrologic Index; 20% 12-month precip; 15% 6-month precip; 10% Palmer (Modified); 10% 24-month precip; 10% 60-month precip; and 5% CPC Soil Model

29. Unified Blend: the “raw” Unified blend is the average of the short- and long-term blends The “finished” Unified product plots the percentile of the current “raw” values relative to the 1932-2000 distribution of monthly values archived at NCDC URL: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predict ions/experimental/edb/access.html The New Blends

31. Next Steps Support and utilize the development of a western Support and utilize the development of a western Implement the new blend products into the process Implement the new blend products into the process SWSI tool SWSI tool Incorporate USDA soil measurements (SCAN) Incorporate USDA soil measurements (SCAN) Incorporate USGS groundwater data as real-time Incorporate USGS groundwater data as real-time data become available data become available Efforts underway to take daily climate data from Efforts underway to take daily climate data from NOAA’s Cooperative Network to produce a regional/national coverage of station-based SPI NOAA’s Cooperative Network to produce a regional/national coverage of station-based SPI maps on a weekly basis (http://nadss.unl.edu) maps on a weekly basis (http://nadss.unl.edu)

33. The Latest Weekly Assessment From the United States Drought Monitor The Latest Seasonal Outlook Seasonal Outlooks Drought Data Soil Moisture Data Precipitation and Temperature DataPrecipitation and Temperature Data Publication of the web team, Climate Prediction Center. Last Updated: 04/18/2002 www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov “Drought Assessment ”

37. White House Drought Briefing August 11, 1999

38. Short-term Tools - Medium-Range Forecasts of T & P - 2-wk Soil Model Forecast (MRF) - 2-wk COLA Soil Model Forecast - 6-wk Experimental Climate Prediction Center (ECPC) Soil Model Forecasts

39. Long-term Tools - CPC Long-Lead Outlooks of T and P - ECPC Monthly Soil Model Forecasts - PDI 4-Month Probability Projections - Soil Moisture Model ENSO Composites - Constructed Analogue Soil (CAS) Model Seasonal Forecasts - Correlations/Composites from PDO, Pacific Warm Pool, QBO, NAO, etc.

40. Main Features of Outlooks Show changes over next 3 ½ months for large- scale drought areas Show changes over next 3 ½ months for large- scale drought areas Initial areas based on schematic of Drought Monitor D1 areas Initial areas based on schematic of Drought Monitor D1 areas Verification criteria based on one-category change in Drought Monitor at end of forecast period Verification criteria based on one-category change in Drought Monitor at end of forecast period Map colors: green for improvement; brown for no change; hatched for mixed outlook; yellow for expanding drought Map colors: green for improvement; brown for no change; hatched for mixed outlook; yellow for expanding drought

41. MRF-Based 2-Week Soil Moisture Forecast

42. Seasonal CAS Soil Moisture Outlooks

43. El Nino Soil Moisture Composite for October

45. Status of PDO, ENSO, and other patterns monitored

46. Future Plans Create online archive of past outlook maps Create online archive of past outlook maps Add a technical discussion of reasoning behind the outlook Add a technical discussion of reasoning behind the outlook Continue research on factors related to drought Continue research on factors related to drought Create multiple regression drought forecast models Create multiple regression drought forecast models